The regular season just ended in a blur of missed kicks and cold-weather chaos. Honestly, if you’re trying to figure out nfl teams playoff chances right now, you aren't looking at percentages anymore—you're looking at a bracket that’s already half-shattered. We just watched one of the most ridiculous Wild Card weekends in recent memory.
Think about it. The Pittsburgh Steelers shouldn't even be here, technically. They squeezed into the dance because a rookie kicker in Baltimore, Tyler Loop, pushed a 44-yarder wide right as time expired in Week 18. That single kick changed the entire trajectory of the AFC. It gave Aaron Rodgers another life and sent Lamar Jackson home to wonder "what if" for another eight months.
The Math vs. The Momentum
Most people check the major sports sites for those fancy "Percentage to Win" dials. They look clean. They look official. But those models often fail to account for the "Ben Johnson effect" we're seeing in Chicago or the sheer defensive suffocation Mike Macdonald has built in Seattle.
✨ Don't miss: Why Amazon Prime Video NFL Thursday Night Football is Actually Changing How We Watch Sports
Take the Houston Texans. This team started 0-3. Most "experts" gave them less than a 5% chance to even make the postseason back in October. Fast forward to today: they didn't just make it; they just absolutely dismantled the Steelers 30-6 in the Wild Card round. Their "playoff chances" evolved from a statistical anomaly to a legitimate threat to the New England Patriots’ season.
Here is the reality of the remaining field as of January 13, 2026:
- Seattle Seahawks (No. 1 Seed): They have the highest probability of reaching the Super Bowl simply because the path goes through the loudest stadium in the league. Sam Darnold has somehow found his soul under Macdonald’s leadership.
- Denver Broncos (No. 1 Seed): Sean Payton has turned Bo Nix into a point-guard quarterback. They’re rested, they’re at altitude, and they’re waiting for the Bills.
- Buffalo Bills: They just went into Jacksonville and won a 27-24 nail-biter. They’re the "dangerous" team no one wants to see, mostly because Josh Allen decided to stop throwing the ball to the other team three weeks ago.
Why "Lock" Predictions Usually Fail
You've probably heard someone say the San Francisco 49ers were a lock for the Super Bowl back in December. They had a chance to play five straight home games if they had just beaten Seattle in Week 18. Instead, they lost 13-3, dropped to the No. 6 seed, and had to travel to Philadelphia.
They won that game, by the way. A gritty 23-19 victory at Lincoln Financial Field. But it changed their odds significantly. Now, instead of a bye, they have to go back to Seattle. That’s the beauty and the horror of the NFL. One bad Saturday in January can turn a 14-win juggernaut into a footnote.
The Underdog Reality
The Chicago Bears are the story of the week. Down 21-3 at halftime to the Packers? Most fans were already looking at mock drafts. Then Caleb Williams happened. A 25-yard strike to D.J. Moore with less than two minutes left didn't just win a game; it flipped the power dynamic of the NFC North.
Predicting the Divisional Round
If you're betting on nfl teams playoff chances for the Super Bowl, you have to look at the health of the offensive lines. The Eagles just got bounced because they couldn't protect the pocket. Meanwhile, the Rams—the No. 5 seed—are quietly terrifying. They just hung 34 points on Carolina in their own building.
✨ Don't miss: Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions: Why We Are Betting Against the Chalk at Bay Hill
Matthew Stafford is playing like it’s 2021 again. When he has a healthy Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, the "chances" for an upset in Chicago next Sunday are a lot higher than the 35% the computers are spitting out.
Divisional Matchups for January 17-18:
- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: This is a classic "Unstoppable Force vs. Immovable Object" game.
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: A Week 18 rematch. Can the Niners' defense actually score points this time?
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo vs. DeMeco Ryans. Two young, defensive-minded coaches.
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: The veteran Stafford against the rookie sensation Williams.
What You Should Watch For
Don't just look at the wins. Look at the "Success Rate" on third downs over the last four weeks. The Patriots are currently leading the league in defensive EPA (Expected Points Added) since December. While the Broncos have the bye, New England looks like the most "complete" team in the AFC after their 16-3 clinical win over the Chargers.
👉 See also: Christmas Eve NFL Games: Why the Schedule Always Feels So Weird
Also, keep an eye on the injury report for the Bears. Losing T.J. Edwards and Ozzy Trapilo is a massive blow to a team that relies on defensive chemistry and pass protection for a young QB. If they can't fill those gaps, their "chances" against a red-hot Rams team are basically zero.
Actionable Strategy for Following the Bracket
Stop looking at season-long stats. They’re irrelevant now. If a team lost their starting left tackle in Week 17, their 12-win record doesn't mean a thing in the divisional round. Focus on the following:
- Red Zone Efficiency: The Texans are scoring touchdowns on 72% of their red zone trips since the start of December. That beats a "better" team that settles for field goals every time.
- Rest vs. Rust: The Broncos and Seahawks have had a week off. Historically, that’s an advantage, but it can also lead to a slow start in the first quarter. If the Bills get up early in Denver, that "bye-week advantage" evaporates.
- The Weather Factor: It’s mid-January. If the wind is whipping at 25 mph in Foxborough, the Texans' explosive passing game might get grounded, favoring the Patriots’ power run style.
Track the line movements on the major sportsbooks about 48 hours before kickoff. That’s when the "smart money" usually moves, and it’s often a better indicator of nfl teams playoff chances than any talking head on TV. The path to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing, and right now, the smart money is starting to lean toward a collision between the experience of New England and the raw energy of Seattle.
Monitor the weather forecasts for Denver and Chicago specifically. High-altitude wind and Lake Michigan gusts can turn a high-flying offense into a stagnant one in a matter of minutes. Verify the final injury status of Chicago’s offensive line before assuming they can handle the Rams' pass rush.