Wild Card Weekend is officially in the rearview mirror, and if you haven’t looked at the board lately, the landscape for Super Bowl LX has shifted enough to give you whiplash. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are out. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs? Not even in the dance this year. It feels weird, doesn't it? For the first time in what feels like a decade, the AFC doesn't run through Kansas City, and the betting market is scrambling to figure out who actually owns the keys to the kingdom.
Right now, the Seattle Seahawks are sitting pretty as the betting favorites at +270. That’s a massive jump from where they started the season at +6000. If you’re holding a ticket from August, you’re basically holding gold. But being the favorite in January is a double-edged sword. Just ask the Eagles, who opened the season at +600 and just watched their title defense go up in flames against a gritty San Francisco 49ers squad.
Why NFL Teams Odds to Win Super Bowl Are Shifting So Fast
Vegas doesn't care about your feelings. It cares about momentum and injuries. The Seahawks jumped to the top spot because they didn't just win; they dominated. Mike Macdonald has that defense playing like the 2013 Legion of Boom, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making a legitimate case for being the best receiver in the league right now. After they dismantled the Niners in Week 18 to lock up the NFC's No. 1 seed, the money flooded in.
But don't ignore the Los Angeles Rams at +320. They are breathing down Seattle's neck. Matthew Stafford looks twenty-five again, and Kyren Williams is a certified workhorse. The Rams have this weird, pesky habit of playing their best football when everyone forgets they exist. They just ground out a 34-31 win over Carolina, and honestly, they look like the most balanced team in the playoff field.
Then you have the AFC mess. It’s a total toss-up.
Buffalo is currently the AFC favorite at +600, mostly because Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed. He’s the reigning MVP for a reason. He’s got that "I’ll just do it myself" energy that carries teams through the snow in January. They just handled Jacksonville, and now they head to Denver for a Divisional Round clash that has "Instant Classic" written all over it.
The Drake Maye Factor in New England
Can we talk about the Patriots for a second? The New England Patriots at +600 to win the Super Bowl feels like a fever dream from 2014, but Drake Maye is the real deal. Mike Vrabel has brought a toughness back to Foxborough that we haven't seen since the early Brady years. They just suffocated the Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card round.
If you like "boring" football that wins championships, New England is your dark horse. Their defense is giving up almost nothing on the ground. When you can stop the run and have a 6'4" monster at quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over, you’re never out of a game.
👉 See also: LeBron James Without Beard: Why the King Rarely Goes Clean Shaven Anymore
The Denver Broncos and the Bo Nix Surge
Denver is currently sitting at +700, and it’s arguably the most surprising story in the league. People laughed when they drafted Bo Nix. They aren't laughing now. Sean Payton has found his rhythm, and the Broncos’ defense is legitimately terrifying. Patrick Surtain II is erasing half the field every single Sunday.
However, the odds actually worsened for Denver recently. They went from +650 to +700. Why? Because they have to face Josh Allen next. The market is basically saying, "We believe in the Broncos, but we don't believe in them stopping No. 17."
The Underdogs Nobody Wants to Play
If you’re looking for value, the Houston Texans at +850 are screaming at you. C.J. Stroud just put on a clinic against the Steelers to close out Wild Card Weekend. The Texans are playing with house money. They have no pressure, a young core, and a quarterback who doesn't seem to realize he's supposed to be nervous in the playoffs.
And then there are the Chicago Bears. +1600.
At one point in their Wild Card game against Green Bay, they were +8000. They were down 21-3 at halftime. It looked over. Then, they dropped 25 points in the fourth quarter. It was one of those "is this real life?" moments. Caleb Williams showed a level of poise that usually takes years to develop. They have to go to Chicago to face the Rams next, which is a brutal draw, but at +1600, they are the definition of a "lottery ticket" team.
Breaking Down the Current Betting Board
If you're looking at the raw numbers right now, here is how the top of the board shakes out across the major sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetMGM:
Seattle Seahawks: +270
They have the bye. They have the home field. They have the defense. It’s their trophy to lose.
✨ Don't miss: When is Georgia's next game: The 2026 Bulldog schedule and what to expect
Los Angeles Rams: +320
Sean McVay with a healthy Stafford is a nightmare for defensive coordinators.
New England Patriots: +600
The "Nobody Believes in Us" tour is in full effect. Drake Maye is a superstar in the making.
Buffalo Bills: +650
It all depends on which Josh Allen shows up. If it's "Superman" Allen, they win the AFC.
Denver Broncos: +700
Statistically the best defense left in the AFC, but the offense can be streaky.
Houston Texans: +850
The biggest "risers" of the week. C.J. Stroud is 2026's version of Joe Burrow.
San Francisco 49ers: +2000
They are the 6th seed and they're banged up. No George Kittle for the rest of the playoffs is a massive blow to their Super Bowl hopes.
What People Get Wrong About Super Bowl Odds
Most casual bettors see a +270 favorite and think it’s a lock. It isn't. In fact, the top seed hasn't had a great track record lately. There is a "bye week rust" factor that is very real. While Seattle is resting, the 49ers are coming off a high-stakes win and are already in "playoff mode."
🔗 Read more: Vince Carter Meme I Got One More: The Story Behind the Internet's Favorite Comeback
Also, the venue matters. Super Bowl LX is being played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. If the 49ers somehow pull off the upset against Seattle this weekend, they’d be playing for a chance to win a ring in their own backyard. That narrative alone usually drives the odds down, even if the team is flawed.
One more thing to watch: the weather. We have two games in "cold" environments this weekend (Denver and Chicago). If the wind picks up or the snow starts falling, those high-flying offenses like Buffalo or the Rams might struggle. In those conditions, the Patriots (+600) start looking like a much smarter play because they are built for the mud and the cold.
Practical Steps for Following the Lines
If you're trying to find an edge in the NFL teams odds to win Super Bowl market, you need to be watching the injury reports for the Divisional Round more than the scores.
First, check the status of the 49ers' offensive line. They are already without Kittle; if Trent Williams isn't 100%, Seattle is going to live in the backfield. Second, look at the "Public Money" splits. Often, the odds move not because a team got better, but because thousands of people are betting on a popular name like the Bills or the Patriots. That creates "artificial" value on teams like the Texans or the Bears.
Finally, keep an eye on the "Exact Result" markets. You can often get much better odds betting on a "Seahawks to beat Bills" outcome (+1200) than just betting on Seattle to win the whole thing. It’s riskier, but the payout reflects it.
The path to Santa Clara is narrowing. By Monday morning, half of these teams will be booking tee times at the golf course, and the odds for the remaining four will likely slash in half. If you see a number you like, now is probably the last time you'll see it with a plus-sign that big.
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the "In-Game" odds during the Divisional Round. If a favorite like Seattle or Denver falls behind early, their live Super Bowl odds will balloon. That’s often the best time to jump in if you truly believe in their comeback potential. Be sure to check the active rosters on Friday afternoon before the Saturday triple-header begins to catch any last-minute scratches.