If you’ve spent any time looking at NFL team power ratings lately, you know the feeling of looking at a list and thinking, "Wait, how on earth is that team ranked there?" It happens every January. We just finished a Wild Card weekend that saw the Houston Texans absolutely dismantle the Steelers 30-6, yet some "expert" models still have the Bills ranked higher because Josh Allen had a big game against Jacksonville.
Power ratings aren't just a simple list of who is winning. They’re a mathematical attempt to strip away the luck and find out who would win on a neutral field tomorrow.
Right now, as we head into the Divisional Round of the 2025-26 playoffs, things are messy. The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos are sitting on first-round byes with 14-3 records, but the Los Angeles Rams—who just scraped by Carolina 34-31—are actually topping several analytical power scales. Why? Because the "eye test" and the "math" are currently in a fistfight.
The Math Behind the Curtain
Most people confuse power rankings with power ratings. A ranking is just an ordered list (1 through 32). A rating is a specific number assigned to a team, like +6.5 or -2.0. That number represents how many points better or worse that team is compared to an "average" NFL squad.
If the Seahawks have a rating of +7 and the 49ers are at +4, the math says Seattle should be a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. Add in the home-field advantage (which usually hovers around 1.5 to 2.5 points these days), and you get the betting spread.
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Analytics firms like PFF and Sharp Football Analysis use different "ingredients" for their stew. PFF currently has the Rams as their #1 team despite their #5 seed, giving them a massive edge because Matthew Stafford’s efficiency metrics are off the charts. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos are the AFC’s #1 seed, but their offensive inconsistency has them sitting at #5 in several power models. It’s a classic case of results versus process.
Why the Top Seeds Aren't Always #1
It’s weird to think a 14-3 team like the Broncos might be "worse" than a 12-5 Bills team they are about to host. But look at the metrics. Denver’s defense is a monster—ranking #1 in sack rate (11.5%) and #2 in yards allowed. However, Bo Nix and the offense have been playing with fire, winning close games that could have easily swung the other way.
Power ratings try to account for this "variance." If you win five games by a field goal, the ratings might penalize you because winning close games is historically unsustainable. It’s basically the "you're getting lucky" tax.
The Seattle Situation
Seattle is the fascinating one this year. Under Mike Macdonald, they’ve basically rebuilt the Legion of Boom. They allowed only 275 points all season—the lowest since 2015. When you have a defense that can "erase" opponents (like they did to the 49ers in Week 18, holding them to 3 points), your power rating skyrockets because defensive dominance is usually more "sticky" than offensive explosions.
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The Drake Maye Factor and New England’s Rise
If you told a Patriots fan two years ago they’d be the #2 seed in the power ratings by January 2026, they’d have laughed. But Drake Maye’s breakout under Mike Vrabel (and interim DC Zak Kuhr) has changed the math. The Patriots didn't just win; they've been efficient.
New England's rating is boosted by "weighted DVOA," a stat that cares more about what you did in December than what you did in September. Since they’ve been "humming" lately—as the analysts like to say—their rating reflects a team that is much more dangerous than their early-season version.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Numbers
Honestly, the biggest mistake fans make is ignoring the "market" rating. You can have your own opinion, but the sportsbooks have the most to lose. If the "experts" say the Bears are #7, but Vegas has them as a 4.5-point underdog to the Rams, the market is telling you the Rams’ power rating is significantly higher.
Parity is at an all-time high. Just look at the NFC South. The Panthers made the playoffs at 9-8 and nearly beat the Rams. That kind of chaos makes calculating NFL team power ratings a nightmare because the gap between the "best" and "worst" playoff teams is narrower than ever.
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Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you’re trying to use these ratings to understand the upcoming games, don't just look at the win-loss column.
- Watch the "Trench" Metrics: Denver’s #1 sack rate is a massive factor against Josh Allen. If a team’s rating is built on a high sack rate, they are more likely to cover the spread in a playoff environment.
- Check the Injury Adjustments: The 49ers are currently lower in the ratings because Nick Bosa and Fred Warner have been banged up. A rating is only as good as the players on the field.
- Ignore Blowouts Against Bad Teams: The Texans' 30-6 win over a Rodgers-led Steelers team is impressive, but ratings often "cap" the value of blowouts to prevent one weird game from skewing the data.
Basically, the Seahawks and Rams look like the heavyweights of the NFC, while the AFC is a three-headed monster between Denver’s defense, Buffalo’s explosive (if volatile) offense, and New England’s newfound balance.
To get the most out of your analysis, start tracking the "Closing Line Value." If you think a team is a +5 and the market thinks they are a +3, ask yourself what the math might be seeing that you aren't—usually, it’s related to "success rate" on early downs or specialized red-zone efficiency. Keep an eye on the injury reports for the Seahawks-49ers rematch; if Seattle’s run game hums like it did in Week 18, that +3.5 rating might actually be too low.
Next, you can look up the specific DVOA rankings for the remaining eight teams to see which units are overperforming their scoring output. This will give you a clearer picture of who is "due" for a regression and who is truly elite.