The betting market for Super Bowl 60 is a total circus right now. If you’re looking at NFL Super Bowl winner odds today, you’re seeing a board that looks absolutely nothing like it did back in August. Injuries have gutted some contenders. Some "rebuilding" teams are suddenly terrifying.
Basically, the script has been flipped.
We just watched the divisional round shake the foundation of the AFC, and the NFC is currently a two-horse race that feels like a collision course. But here’s the thing: most people just bet the favorites and hope for the best. That’s a mistake. In 2026, the value is hiding in the details of defensive DVOA and backup quarterback stability.
The Seahawks Are the Public Darling (For Good Reason)
Seattle is sitting at the top of the mountain. Currently, most sportsbooks have the Seattle Seahawks as the firm favorite at +135 to +155. It’s wild when you think about where they started the season at +6000.
Why the hype? It’s the defense. People are calling it "Legion of Boom 2.0" because they finished the regular season ranked No. 1 in total defense. Sam Darnold has been shockingly efficient, sitting second in the league in yards per attempt at 8.5.
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They just dismantled the 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional Round. When a team allows only two field goals in a playoff game, the odds are going to plummet. They have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and they haven't lost a game in Seattle since early October.
The AFC Chaos: Bo Nix and the Denver Disaster
If you were holding a Denver Broncos ticket yesterday, I’m sorry. Honestly, it’s brutal.
Denver beat Buffalo 33-30 in an overtime thriller to advance, but the victory cost them everything. Bo Nix is out for the rest of the postseason with a broken ankle. Consequently, the Broncos' NFL Super Bowl winner odds tanked immediately. They dropped from +700 to roughly +950 at major books like FOX Sports.
Jarrett Stidham is the guy now. Can he win two more games against elite AFC competition? The market says probably not.
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- New England Patriots (+450): Drake Maye is playing like a seasoned vet. The Patriots are 15-3 and haven't lost on the road all year.
- Houston Texans (+750): They started 0-3 and then went on a nine-game tear. Their defense is No. 1 in the league in yardage allowed.
- Buffalo Bills: Technically out after the Denver loss, but their exit shifted the entire AFC landscape, leaving a massive power vacuum.
Why the Rams Might Be the Smarter Bet
Everyone is obsessed with Seattle, but the Los Angeles Rams (+340) are lurking.
The Rams are built for the trenches. They are one of only two teams (alongside Denver) to rank in the top 10 in pass-rush win rate, run-stop win rate, and both offensive blocking categories. Matthew Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards with over 4,700.
Plus, Davante Adams is back. His 14 receiving touchdowns led the league, and having him healthy for the NFC Championship game makes the Rams a terrifying underdog. If you think Stafford can out-duel Darnold in a high-pressure environment, +340 is a lot of meat on the bone compared to the chalky Seahawks.
The Longshots: Is There Any Hope for Chicago?
The Chicago Bears (+1800) are the definition of "just happy to be here," except they keep winning. Caleb Williams threw for nearly 4,000 yards in his sophomore campaign.
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They were down 21-3 at halftime against Green Bay in the Wild Card round and ended up winning 31-27. That kind of "team of destiny" energy is great for stories, but usually bad for your wallet. Still, if you want a "sprinkle" bet, the Bears are the only longshot left with a quarterback capable of a 300-yard explosion.
What Most People Get Wrong About These Odds
Bettors often ignore the "implied probability." When you see the Seahawks at +135, the math says they have about a 40% chance to win it all.
Is any NFL team truly a 40% lock in a single-elimination tournament? Probably not.
The value usually lives in the teams between +400 and +800. Right now, that’s the Patriots and the Texans. Houston’s defense is actually better than Seattle’s in several key metrics, yet you get nearly five times the payout. That’s how professional builders approach NFL Super Bowl winner odds—by looking for the discrepancy between "perceived dominance" and "statistical reality."
Actionable Next Steps for Betting Super Bowl 60
If you're looking to jump into the market before the Conference Championships kick off, here is how you should play it:
- Monitor the Stidham Effect: Watch the early practice reports for Denver. If the line for their next game moves past +7.5, the market has officially given up on them, which might create a "buy low" opportunity if you believe in their defense.
- Hedging Seattle: If you already have a Seahawks ticket from earlier in the season, now is the time to look at the AFC winner. The Patriots or Texans are the most likely to meet them in Santa Clara.
- Check the Weather: Super Bowl 60 is at Levi’s Stadium. It’s a neutral site, but Northern California in February can be unpredictable. Teams with strong run-stop win rates—like the Rams and Texans—travel better than pass-heavy squads if the wind picks up.
- Live Betting the NFC Championship: If the Rams fall behind early against Seattle, their odds will balloon to +600 or higher. Stafford is a comeback specialist; that’s the time to strike.
The Lombardi Trophy is currently up for grabs, and while the Seahawks look like the safest play, the AFC is wide open for a "Drake Maye Statement Game" or a Texans defensive masterclass.