Everyone is looking at Santa Clara right now. It is January 18, 2026, and the divisional round just wrapped up its first half with some absolute chaos. If you’re hunting for nfl super bowl predictions that actually mean something, you have to look past the jersey names and into the actual trenches where games are being won this month.
The Seattle Seahawks are the team. Period.
They just dismantled the 49ers in a way that felt almost personal. A 41-6 win in the Divisional Round? That isn't just a victory; it's a statement to the rest of the league that the NFC title might already be decided before the kickoff in Seattle next week. Sam Darnold is playing out of his mind, sitting second in the league in yards per attempt at 8.5.
The Seahawks and the "Legion of Boom" 2.0
Honestly, the vibe in Seattle right now is terrifying if you're an opposing quarterback. They locked up the #1 seed, they have the #1 defense in DVOA, and they haven't lost a home game since early October. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a nightmare to cover. He finished the regular season with 1,793 receiving yards.
Think about that.
Nearly 1,800 yards.
When you have a defense that only allows two field goals in a playoff half and an offense that can drop 40 points on a Kyle Shanahan-coached team, you're the favorite. The betting markets agree, with Seattle sitting around +135 to +155 depending on where you look.
👉 See also: Why the 2025 NFL Draft Class is a Total Headache for Scouts
The AFC Mess: Can the Patriots Actually Do This?
New England is the weirdest story of 2026. Drake Maye is the real deal. He led the league with 169.96 total EPA, which is a nerd way of saying he’s incredibly efficient when the game is on the line. Mike Vrabel has this team playing old-school, punch-you-in-the-mouth football.
But there’s a massive "but" here.
The Broncos are waiting.
Denver is the #1 seed in the AFC. They just survived an overtime thriller against Buffalo, but it cost them everything. Bo Nix is out. Broken ankle.
Jarrett Stidham is now the guy tasked with taking the Broncos to the Super Bowl. That is a tough pill to swallow for Denver fans who thought this was their year. Because of that injury, Denver's odds slid down to +950.
What the Numbers Say About NFL Super Bowl Predictions
If you look at history, the #1 seeds usually have a massive advantage, but 2026 feels different because of the injuries.
✨ Don't miss: Liverpool FC Chelsea FC: Why This Grudge Match Still Hits Different
- Seattle Seahawks (+135): The clear path. Home field advantage at Lumen Field is basically a 3-point head start.
- Los Angeles Rams (+340): Matthew Stafford is still a machine. 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns this season. If they can get past Chicago today, a Seahawks-Rams NFC Championship is going to be a bloodbath.
- New England Patriots (+450): They have the coaching edge with Vrabel, and Drake Maye is playing like a 10-year veteran.
- Houston Texans (+750): C.J. Stroud had a rough multi-turnover game in the Wild Card, but they still won 30-6. That defense is a "nightmare" according to most coordinators.
The Texans are the dark horse nobody wants to play. They started the season 0-3 and have gone 12-2 since. They are on a nine-game winning streak. You don't want to play a team that hasn't remembered how to lose since November.
The Matthew Stafford Factor
We can't ignore the Rams.
Stafford led the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Puka Nacua is right behind JSN with 1,715 yards. They are balanced. They rank top 10 in pass-rush win rate, run-stop win rate, and both offensive blocking categories.
They are the only team other than Denver to be that balanced.
But Denver just lost their QB. The Rams still have theirs.
If the Rams beat the Bears today, the NFC is a two-horse race. The Bears have Caleb Williams, who had a massive sophomore jump (3,942 yards), but asking a sophomore to go into Seattle or Los Angeles and win a championship game is a big ask.
🔗 Read more: NFL Football Teams in Order: Why Most Fans Get the Hierarchy Wrong
Why Everyone is Wrong About the Bills
Buffalo is out. Again.
Josh Allen did everything he could, but that overtime loss to Denver was the final nail. People keep putting the Bills in their nfl super bowl predictions every year because of Allen's talent, but the consistency just isn't there when the weather turns cold and the defenses tighten up.
James Cook III had a career year with 1,621 rushing yards, but it wasn't enough to overcome a Denver defense that ranks top three in almost every scoring category.
Actionable Betting and Analysis Insights
If you are looking to place a late-season bet or just want to win your office pool, here is the reality of the situation:
- Follow the Defense: Houston and Seattle are the two best defensive units left. In a neutral site like Levi's Stadium for Super Bowl LX, defense usually travels better than a high-flying offense.
- Fade the Backup: Denver is a stay-away. Jarrett Stidham is a professional, but he isn't Bo Nix. The drop-off in a championship-level environment is too steep.
- Watch the Injury Report: Keep an eye on the 49ers' remnants—even though they're out, their physical style of play usually leaves the winning team (Seattle) banged up. If Kenneth Walker III is limited next week, the Seahawks' offense becomes one-dimensional.
- Trust the Rookie/Sophomore Jump: Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are not "just kids" anymore. They are elite processors. Don't discount New England just because the roster lacks a superstar WR1.
The most likely matchup for Super Bowl LX right now? Seahawks vs. Patriots.
It's a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, but this time, Seattle has the defense to make sure no one intercepts it on the goal line.
Keep your eyes on the Texans-Patriots game today. The winner of that game likely determines who represents the AFC, because a Stidham-led Broncos team is a sitting duck in the AFC Championship.
Focus on the trenches and the turnover margin. Seattle is +12 in turnover differential over their last five games. That is how you win championships.