If you had told me in August that the Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting at home during the divisional round with a measly six wins, I’d have called you crazy. Honestly. But here we are in January 2026, and the NFL standings in the league look like someone put the 2024 season in a blender and hit "liquefy." The landscape has shifted so violently that traditional powerhouses like Baltimore and KC are essentially afterthoughts, while teams like the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears are suddenly the ones everyone is terrified to play.
It’s a weird time for football.
Wild Card weekend just wrapped up, and it was absolute chaos. We saw 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in just four of those games. That’s not a typo. Twelve. If your heart rate didn't spike, you probably weren't watching. The Texans just absolutely dismantled the Steelers 30-6, proving that Houston’s rise wasn't some early-season fluke. Meanwhile, the Packers and Bears played a classic that ended with Chicago edging them out 31-27, primarily thanks to a 25-point explosion in the fourth quarter.
The AFC Power Shift: Bo Nix and the New Guard
The top of the AFC is currently owned by the Denver Broncos. They finished the regular season at 14-3, a record matched only by the New England Patriots. How did Denver get here? Bo Nix. The second-year quarterback has turned that offense into a machine, leading them to the No. 1 seed and a much-needed first-round bye. They didn't just win; they controlled games. Their home record at Mile High was a staggering 8-1.
The Patriots, led by Jerod Mayo, aren't far behind. They also finished 14-3 but lost the tiebreaker to Denver based on common opponents. It's kinda funny seeing New England back at the top after everyone buried the post-Belichick era. They’ve built a defensive wall that allowed only 320 points all season, which is basically a nightmare for anyone trying to move the chains in the cold January air of Foxborough.
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How the AFC Seeds Shook Out:
- 1. Denver Broncos (14-3): Secured the bye. They face the Bills next.
- 2. New England Patriots (14-3): Just took down the Chargers 16-3 in a defensive masterclass.
- 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4): A heartbreaking 27-24 loss to Buffalo in the Wild Card round ended their run.
- 4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Won the North but got stomped by Houston.
- 5. Houston Texans (12-5): The hottest team in the league? Maybe. They have a 9-game winning streak.
- 6. Buffalo Bills (12-5): Scraped by the Jags and now head to Denver.
- 7. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6): Eliminated by the Pats.
The most shocking part of the AFC standings in the league? The Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid finished 6-11. They lost their last six games in a row. It was a total collapse that nobody saw coming, proving that even the best dynasties have a shelf life.
NFC Chaos: Seattle’s Rise and the South’s Mediocrity
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are the undisputed kings of the regular season. They matched the AFC leaders with a 14-3 record, dominating the NFC West. They’ve been elite on the road, going 8-1 away from Lumen Field. That’s a stat that usually translates to Super Bowl appearances. They are sitting pretty with the No. 1 seed, waiting to host the 49ers in a divisional rematch that is going to be incredibly salty.
The NFC North actually produced three teams with winning records, but the Chicago Bears took the crown at 11-6. They held the tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Eagles, who also finished 11-6. Chicago’s win over Green Bay last week was the kind of game fans talk about for a decade—a 25-point fourth quarter to erase a massive deficit. It felt like the ghosts of Soldier Field finally decided to help out.
The NFC Playoff Picture:
- Seattle Seahawks (14-3): The favorite. Period.
- Chicago Bears (11-6): Finally found their identity.
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): Surprising exit after a 23-19 loss to the Niners.
- Carolina Panthers (8-9): They won the South with a losing record. Yeah, it was that kind of year.
- Los Angeles Rams (12-5): Beat the Panthers 34-31 in a nail-biter.
- San Francisco 49ers (12-5): Knocked off Philly and now looking for revenge against Seattle.
- Green Bay Packers (9-7-1): Heartbroken by the Bears.
The NFC South was basically a "who wants it less" competition. The Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons all finished 8-9. Carolina took the division on tiebreakers but immediately got bounced by the Rams. It’s a stark reminder that the current playoff format allows some "meh" teams into the dance while 9-8 teams like the Vikings and Lions from the North get left out in the cold.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Current Standings
A lot of folks look at the NFL standings in the league and think it’s all about the quarterback. While Nix and the New York-bound Aaron Rodgers (who struggled mightily) get the headlines, this season has been won in the trenches and on the road.
Look at the Patriots. They went 8-0 on the road. The Seahawks went 8-1. In a league where home-field advantage is supposedly everything, the top seeds this year proved they can win anywhere. That’s a terrifying prospect for the home teams in the divisional round. If you can’t protect your own turf against these guys, you’re toast.
Also, don't sleep on the "point differential" stat. The Patriots finished with a +170. The Jaguars were at +138. Meanwhile, the Steelers—who actually won their division—were only at +10. That was a glaring red flag that suggested they were "frauds" (in the nicest way possible), and the Texans proved it by blowing them out.
The Matchups We’re Staring Down
The divisional round is where the pretenders usually get exposed. We have some heavy hitters going at it. The Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos game is the one everyone is circling. Josh Allen against that Denver defense in the thin air? Sign me up.
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Then you’ve got the 49ers heading back to Seattle. These teams know each other too well. San Francisco actually beat Seattle 17-13 back in September, but the Seahawks took the second meeting. This is the rubber match. The Rams traveling to Chicago is also fascinating because you have a veteran Rams squad against a Bears team that is riding an emotional high.
Upcoming Divisional Schedule:
- Jan 17: (6) Buffalo Bills at (1) Denver Broncos (4:35 PM ET)
- Jan 17: (6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Seattle Seahawks (8:15 PM ET)
- Jan 18: (5) Houston Texans at (2) New England Patriots (3:05 PM ET)
- Jan 18: (5) LA Rams at (2) Chicago Bears (6:40 PM ET)
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you’re looking at the NFL standings in the league to figure out who has the edge, stop looking at the win-loss column and start looking at the "Last 5" and "Streak" columns.
- Watch the Texans: They are on a 9-game winning streak. In the NFL, momentum is a physical force. They are playing with "house money" and zero pressure, which makes them dangerous against a buttoned-up Patriots team.
- Respect the Bye: Denver and Seattle haven't played in two weeks. Usually, that’s good for health, but sometimes it leads to "rust." Keep an eye on the first quarter of those games; if the favorites start slow, the upsets are coming.
- Bet on Defense in Foxborough: New England’s defense is legit. If you’re tracking stats, look at their "Points Against" (320). They don't break.
- The "North" Factor: Don't underestimate the Bears' grit. Winning that division this year was a gauntlet. They are battle-tested in a way the Panthers or Eagles weren't.
The 2025-2026 season has been a masterclass in unpredictability. From the fall of the Chiefs to the resurgence of the Broncos, the standings tell a story of a league that is constantly refreshing itself. Whether you're a die-hard fan or just checking the scores for your parlay, one thing is clear: the old rules don't apply anymore.
Check the injury reports for the Bills' secondary before Saturday. If they aren't 100%, Bo Nix is going to have a field day. Keep your eyes on the weather in Chicago too; if it's windy, the Rams' passing game might struggle, giving the Bears a massive edge.