The playoff dust is still settling. If you’ve spent the last 48 hours glued to a screen, you know the NFL standings as of right now look nothing like they did on Friday. We just watched a weekend where home-field advantage felt like a cheat code for some and a nightmare for others.
Basically, the "Final Four" is almost set, but the path there was ugly, rainy, and filled with more turnovers than a Sunday morning bakery.
The AFC is a Two-Horse Race (Again)
It’s official. The AFC Championship game is locked in, and it’s a heavyweight rematch we've seen before, albeit with some very different faces under center. The Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots are the last ones standing in the American Football Conference.
Denver survived a heart-stopper on Saturday. They beat the Buffalo Bills 33-30 in overtime, a game that felt like it aged everyone in the stadium by five years. But the win came at a massive cost. Rookie sensation Bo Nix is out. Broken ankle. It’s the kind of news that makes a fanbase go from "Super Bowl bound" to "checking the liquor cabinet" in six seconds flat. Now, the Broncos have to host a title game with Jarrett Stidham.
Honestly, it’s a weird vibe in Mile High right now.
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Then you have the Patriots. They just finished dismantling the Houston Texans 28-16. If you didn’t watch it, don't let the score fool you into thinking it was a masterpiece. It was a mess. Drake Maye fumbled four times. Four! But the New England defense is currently playing like they're personal friends with the 1985 Bears. They intercepted C.J. Stroud four times. When your defense scores more reliably than some offenses, you're going to win a lot of playoff games.
The updated AFC standing looks like this:
- 1. Denver Broncos (Advanced to AFC Championship)
- 2. New England Patriots (Advanced to AFC Championship)
- 6. Buffalo Bills (Eliminated)
- 5. Houston Texans (Eliminated)
The NFC: Seattle is Waiting, Chicago is Fighting
Over in the NFC, things are a bit more lopsided. The Seattle Seahawks didn't just win on Saturday night; they performed an exorcism. They beat the San Francisco 49ers 41-6. Kenneth Walker III was a human highlight reel, tying a franchise record with three rushing touchdowns.
Seattle looks like the best team in football right now. Full stop. Mike Macdonald has that defense flying to the ball, and Lumen Field is going to be deafening next Sunday.
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But who are they playing? That’s the big question as of Sunday evening.
The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams are currently locked in a slugfest at Soldier Field. It’s the classic "unstoppable force vs. immovable object" scenario. You’ve got Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua trying to air it out in the Chicago cold, while Caleb Williams is trying to add to his record-breaking seven fourth-quarter comebacks.
The NFC standings as of right now:
- 1. Seattle Seahawks (Advanced to NFC Championship)
- 2. Chicago Bears (Currently playing Divisional Round)
- 5. Los Angeles Rams (Currently playing Divisional Round)
- 6. San Francisco 49ers (Eliminated)
Why the Standings Don't Tell the Whole Story
If you just look at the wins and losses, you miss the drama. Look at the AFC East. The Patriots finished 14-3, but they were only two games ahead of the Bills. That rivalry is the only reason the AFC hasn't become completely predictable.
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And then there's the AFC South. The Jaguars and Texans both finished with 12 or 13 wins, making it the most competitive division in the league this year. But both are gone now. The experience of New England and the altitude of Denver simply wore them down.
Experts like Mike Florio and the crew at PFF have been pointing out all season that "Expected Points Added" (EPA) favored the Rams and Seahawks for a deep run. So far, they’re right. The Seahawks' defense has been the most efficient unit in the league since December.
Surprising Stats from the Divisional Round:
- Turnover Madness: There were 9 combined turnovers in the Patriots-Texans game. That's the most in a playoff game in over two decades.
- Rushing Dominance: Seattle put up 175 yards on the ground against a 49ers defense that usually eats running backs for breakfast.
- The Nix Factor: Before his injury, Bo Nix was the first rookie QB to win 14 games in a regular season. His absence shifts the entire betting line for the AFC Championship.
What's Next for the NFL Bracket?
The NFL standings as of right now indicate we are heading toward a Championship Sunday that favors the home teams, but injuries are the great equalizer.
If the Bears hold on against the Rams, we get a #1 vs. #2 matchup in both conferences. That’s a rarity. It means the regular season actually mattered this year. Usually, we see a #6 seed like the 2024 Packers or a #5 seed make a chaotic run, but the heavyweights have mostly held serve in 2026.
Actionable Next Steps for Fans:
- Check the Injury Reports: Keep a close eye on the Broncos' practice reports this week. How Jarrett Stidham takes first-team reps will dictate whether Denver is a 3-point favorite or a home underdog against New England.
- Monitor the Weather: The NFC Championship will be in Seattle. It's January. Expect rain and wind, which heavily favors Kenneth Walker III and the Seahawks' ground game.
- Betting Lines: Expect the New England/Denver total to drop significantly. With a backup QB in Denver and a ball-hawking defense in New England, the "Under" is looking like the smartest play of the week.
- Watch the Bears-Rams Finish: The winner of the current game in Chicago has to travel to Seattle on a short week. That travel fatigue is a massive factor for the NFC title game.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. By tonight, we’ll have our final four, and the countdown to the Lombardi Trophy begins in earnest.