Wild Card Weekend is officially in the rearview mirror. It was absolute chaos. If you looked at the NFL standings and games from just two weeks ago, you probably wouldn't have predicted that the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles would be sitting at home right now, or that Aaron Rodgers would be pondering retirement after a blowout loss in Pittsburgh.
Football is weird. Honestly, that’s the only way to describe a weekend where a 14-point favorite almost loses to an 8-9 team, and a rookie quarterback leads a 25-point fourth-quarter comeback.
The AFC Shakeup: Denver and New England Wait
The AFC standings ended the regular season with a massive logjam at 13-4. Basically, three teams finished with the same record, but the Denver Broncos grabbed the No. 1 seed and that precious first-round bye. Bo Nix has matured into a legitimate point guard for Sean Payton’s offense, even if the national media is still a bit skeptical of his arm talent.
While Denver rested, the rest of the conference beat each other up.
The most shocking result? It has to be the Houston Texans dismantling the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers, now in Pittsburgh, looked every bit his age against DeMeco Ryans’ defense. Houston forced a fumble that Sheldon Rankins returned 33 yards for a score, and by the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Steelers were totally gassed. That 30-6 final score wasn't a fluke.
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Meanwhile, the New England Patriots took care of business against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. It was a classic "Bill Belichick-style" win, even in the post-Belichick era. They hit Herbert six times and limited the Chargers to a measly field goal.
- Denver Broncos (Bye)
- New England Patriots (Beat Chargers 16-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Lost to Bills 27-24)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (Lost to Texans 30-6)
- Houston Texans (Advanced)
- Buffalo Bills (Advanced)
NFC Chaos: The Champs Are Out
You've probably heard by now, but the Philadelphia Eagles are done. San Francisco went into Lincoln Financial Field as the No. 6 seed and walked out with a 23-19 victory. Brock Purdy didn't look "limited" by that toe injury at all. He found Christian McCaffrey for a 4-yard touchdown with less than three minutes left to silence the Philly crowd.
And then there was Chicago.
The Bears were down 21-3 at halftime against the Packers. It looked over. Then Caleb Williams happened. He threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns, including a 25-yard strike to D.J. Moore with 1:43 left. Soldier Field hasn't been that loud in a decade.
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The Seattle Seahawks are currently the team to beat in the NFC, sitting pretty as the No. 1 seed with a franchise-record 14 wins. Sam Darnold has somehow become the most efficient quarterback in the league under Mike Macdonald. It’s a strange world we live in.
Upcoming Divisional Round Matchups
The bracket is set. We have four games this weekend that will determine the final four.
Saturday, January 17
- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (4:30 PM ET): This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs. Buffalo won that one 31-7, but this time they have to travel to the altitude. Josh Allen is playing "hero ball" again, which is either a blessing or a curse depending on which drive you're watching.
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (8:00 PM ET): Divisional rivals. They split the regular season series. The 49ers defense is a bit leaky, but their offense can score on anyone.
Sunday, January 18
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots (1:00 PM ET): Can the Texans' top-rated defense stop the Patriots' methodical run game? Houston's C.J. Stroud had three turnovers last week; he can’t do that at Gillette Stadium.
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (4:30 PM ET): Matthew Stafford vs. Caleb Williams. The Rams barely survived the Panthers, while the Bears are riding the high of an epic comeback.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Standings
A lot of fans look at the NFL standings and games and assume the higher seed is a lock. That's a mistake. In the modern NFL, the gap between the No. 2 seed and the No. 6 seed is razor-thin.
Look at the Carolina Panthers. They won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. People called them the "worst playoff team ever." Then they went out and nearly beat the Rams in a 34-31 shootout. Records matter for home-field advantage, but they don't mean much once the ball is kicked off in January.
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E-E-A-T Insight: According to data from the last five seasons, road underdogs in the Wild Card round cover the spread nearly 58% of the time. The pressure of playing at home for a "superior" seed is a real psychological factor that many bettors overlook.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're following the playoffs or looking at the NFL standings and games to make your own predictions, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Injury Reports: Houston’s Nico Collins and Justin Watson are both in concussion protocol. If they can’t go, Stroud loses his primary targets against a very disciplined New England secondary.
- The "Rest vs. Rust" Factor: Denver and Seattle haven't played in two weeks. Historically, No. 1 seeds that struggle in the first quarter of the Divisional Round often end up in dogfights.
- Red Zone Efficiency: The Bears won because they capitalized on their fourth-quarter trips. The Chargers lost because they couldn't find the end zone once. Pay attention to "Points per Red Zone Trip" stats heading into Sunday.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. By Monday morning, we'll be down to just four teams. Grab your jersey and get ready; it's going to be a long weekend.