The regular season is over. Gone. Done. The 2025-2026 campaign left us with a weird mix of expected dominance and some truly bizarre tiebreaking scenarios that honestly had people digging through the NFL rulebook like they were studying for the bar exam. If you just look at the raw NFL scores and standing data, you might think you have the full picture, but the seeding tells a much more chaotic story.
Take the AFC, for instance. We ended with two teams sitting at 14-3 at the top. The Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots both looked like world-beaters, but Denver snatched that #1 seed and the precious bye week. Why? It wasn't a head-to-head win. It came down to record against common opponents. Denver went 6-0 in those games, while New England slipped up once to go 5-1. One game in October or November ends up deciding who gets to sit on the couch while everyone else is hitting each other in the Wild Card round.
The Wild Card Chaos You Might Have Missed
Last weekend was a blur. Usually, home-field advantage is this sacred thing in the playoffs, but the road teams decided they didn't care about the noise. Out of six games, four road teams walked away with wins. That’s not supposed to happen.
In the AFC, the Houston Texans absolutely dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6. It wasn't even as close as the score looked, which is saying something for a 24-point blowout. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills went into Jacksonville and squeezed out a 27-24 victory against a Jaguars team that had won eight straight to end the season. Talk about a momentum killer.
The NFC side was just as wild. The Philadelphia Eagles, who were the #3 seed, got stunned at home by the San Francisco 49ers, 23-19. Christian McCaffrey basically carried the Niners on his back, scoring a late touchdown to seal it. And let's talk about the Chicago Bears. They were trailing the Packers 21-3 at halftime. Most fans probably turned the TV off. But Caleb Williams woke up in the fourth quarter, threw two touchdowns, and the Bears escaped 31-27.
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Understanding the Final NFL Standings and Seeding
It’s easy to get lost in the "W-L" column, but the way the NFL structures its divisions means a team with a worse record can actually rank higher than a team that won more games.
Look at the Carolina Panthers. They finished 8-9. In almost any other year, they’re looking at a top-10 draft pick. Instead, they won the NFC South and hosted a playoff game as the #4 seed. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams and the 49ers both had 12-5 records but had to play on the road as Wild Cards. It feels unfair to some fans, but that’s the "win your division" rule in action.
AFC Final Top Seeds
- Denver Broncos (14-3): Secured the #1 seed via tiebreaker.
- New England Patriots (14-3): The #2 seed after losing the common games tiebreaker.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4): Won the AFC South but fell in the Wild Card.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7): Won the AFC North in a dogfight.
NFC Final Top Seeds
- Seattle Seahawks (14-3): Absolute dominance and a clear #1 seed.
- Chicago Bears (11-6): Took the #2 seed over Philly thanks to a head-to-head win.
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-6): The #3 seed who struggled late in the year.
- Carolina Panthers (8-9): The "lucky" winner of the NFC South.
The Road Ahead: Divisional Round Matchups
The bracket is now set for this weekend, January 17th and 18th. If you're tracking NFL scores and standing updates, these are the heavy hitters left standing.
Saturday starts with the Buffalo Bills heading to Denver. It’s Josh Allen versus that Mile High defense. Later that night, the 49ers travel to Seattle. The Seahawks have been resting, and that crowd is going to be deafening.
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Sunday gives us the Houston Texans at New England. Everyone is wondering if the Texans' young offense can handle the Foxborough cold. Finally, the Rams head to Chicago. The Bears' miracle comeback last week gave them life, but Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his 17-year career right now. He just put up 304 yards and three scores against Carolina.
What Most People Get Wrong About Tiebreakers
People always assume "strength of schedule" is the first thing the league looks at when records are tied. It’s actually pretty far down the list.
- Head-to-head record is the big one. If you beat them, you’re above them.
- Division record matters if you're in the same division.
- Common games (at least four) is usually what settles the inter-division ties.
- Conference record is the next major hurdle.
This is why the Los Angeles Rams ended up as the #5 seed over the 49ers despite having the same 12-5 record. The Rams went 9-3 in common games, while San Francisco went 8-4. That one extra win against a mutual opponent changed their entire postseason path.
How to Use These Stats for Future Picks
If you're looking at these numbers to figure out who's going to the Super Bowl in Santa Clara this February, don't just look at the wins. Look at the "Points Against" column. The Seattle Seahawks allowed only 292 points all season. That’s roughly 17 points per game. In a league that’s increasingly geared toward high-scoring offenses, that kind of defense is an anomaly.
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On the flip side, the Dallas Cowboys scored 471 points—one of the highest in the league—but missed the playoffs entirely with a 7-9-1 record. Scoring points is fun for fantasy football, but if you can't stop anybody, the standings will eventually reflect that.
Practical Steps for Following the Postseason
- Track the Injury Reports: In the Divisional Round, the "questionable" tag is often a lie. Watch the Friday practice participation specifically.
- Check the Weather: Denver and Chicago are expected to be freezing this weekend. Dome teams (like the Texans or Rams) historically see a dip in offensive efficiency when the temperature drops below 32 degrees.
- Watch the Turnovers: Teams like the Bills and Bears stayed alive last week because they won the turnover battle in the fourth quarter.
The standings give you the "who," but the game-day scores give you the "how." As we move into the Divisional Round, the gap between the #1 seeds and the Wild Cards usually narrows, but home-field advantage in places like Seattle and Denver is real.
Keep an eye on the live updates this Saturday. The first game kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS. If the Bills can pull off another upset, the AFC bracket is going to be wide open.