You see it every Sunday. A commentator screams about a team "establishing the run" because they just hit 150 yards on the ground. The graphic flashes on the screen, showing a 12-4 record when that specific running back gets 20 carries. It feels like gospel. But honestly? Most of the way we talk about NFL rushing yards per game is backwards. We treat it like a cause when it's usually just a result.
If a team is winning by 14 points in the fourth quarter, they aren't going to chuck the ball deep. They’re going to hand it off. Over and over. Naturally, their rushing total climbs. Does that mean the rushing yards won the game? Not necessarily. It just means they were already winning. This "endogeneity" problem—where the stat is a product of the score—makes raw rushing totals one of the most misunderstood metrics in professional sports.
The Great Jim Brown Barrier
To understand where we are, you have to look at the ceiling. Jim Brown is still the only player in NFL history to average over 100 rushing yards per game for an entire career. Think about that. He retired in 1965. In an era of bigger, faster, and theoretically "better" athletes, nobody has touched his 104.3 average.
Barry Sanders came close at 99.8. Terrell Davis was a monster for a few years at 97.5. But the modern game is different. Today, if a guy averages 90 yards, he’s a superstar. Derrick Henry, the "King" himself, sits at a career average of roughly 85.1. The game has shifted from individual workhorses to committee backfields, and that changes how we view NFL rushing yards per game at the player level.
- Jim Brown: 104.3 (The untouchable gold standard)
- Barry Sanders: 99.8 (The human highlight reel)
- Jonathan Taylor: 90.5 (A modern outlier)
- Derrick Henry: 85.1 (The active yardage king)
Why 2024 and 2025 Changed the Conversation
For a while, the NFL was obsessed with passing. In 2015 and 2016, passing yards peaked at over 480 per game league-wide. Rushing was an afterthought. But then defenses got smart. They started playing "two-high" shells—basically keeping two safeties deep to prevent the big play.
What happens when you take away the deep ball? You invite the run.
In the 2024 and 2025 seasons, we saw a massive resurgence in ground-and-pound efficiency. Take the Baltimore Ravens. In 2024, they were averaging well over 150 yards on the ground. Why? Because they had Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. It wasn't just "old school" football; it was a mathematical exploit. If you play two safeties deep, you don't have enough bodies in the "box" to stop a 250-pound tank like Henry.
The 2025 Yardage Leaders
Looking at the most recent 2025 data, the numbers are staggering. James Cook in Buffalo finished with about 95.4 yards per game. Derrick Henry followed closely at 93.8. These aren't just "falling forward" yards. These are high-efficiency gains.
It’s interesting to note that the Philadelphia Eagles, with Saquon Barkley, and the Indianapolis Colts, with Jonathan Taylor, consistently hovered around that 100-yard-per-game mark for their lead backs. When you have a guy who can get you 5.0 yards per carry, the NFL rushing yards per game metric suddenly starts to correlate with winning again, simply because it keeps the chains moving and exhausts the defense.
The Analytics Trap: Efficiency vs. Volume
If you want to sound like an expert at the bar, stop talking about total yards. Talk about Yards Per Carry (YPC) and Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE).
Total yards are a volume stat. If I carry the ball 40 times for 100 yards, I’ve had a "100-yard game," but I was actually terrible. I averaged 2.5 yards. I put my team in 2nd-and-long all day. On the flip side, if De’Von Achane carries the ball 10 times for 90 yards, he’s been infinitely more valuable despite having "fewer" yards.
In 2024, Saquon Barkley led the league in total RYOE for a long stretch, but players like Lamar Jackson were often more efficient on a per-play basis. This is the nuance that raw NFL rushing yards per game misses. A quarterback scramble for 12 yards on 3rd-and-10 is worth way more than a 4-yard plunge on 1st-and-10, yet they both count toward the team's rushing total.
Team Success: Does Rushing Actually Matter?
There’s a famous study by The Sport Journal that looked at first-half vs. second-half stats. They found that a first-half passing advantage is a huge predictor of winning. A first-half rushing advantage? Almost meaningless.
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But don't tell that to the 2025 Buffalo Bills or Baltimore Ravens. These teams used the run to create a "physical identity." By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, opposing linebackers were too tired to chase receivers.
The Buffalo Bills, for example, finished the 2025 regular season with a team average near 160 rushing yards per game. They weren't just running to kill the clock; they were running to punish people.
Misconceptions You Should Stop Believing
- The 100-Yard Milestone: We love round numbers. But a running back with 98 yards on 15 carries had a better game than one with 102 yards on 30 carries. The "100-yard game" is a vanity metric.
- Rushing Wins Championships: Actually, elite passing efficiency usually wins championships. Rushing is the "closer." It’s how you finish a team once you’ve already picked them apart through the air.
- The "Dead" Position: People say running backs don't matter. Tell that to the Falcons with Bijan Robinson or the Rams with Kyren Williams. The position isn't dead; the overpaid, inefficient running back is dead.
Practical Next Steps for the Stat-Obsessed
If you’re tracking NFL rushing yards per game for fantasy football or just to win an argument, look for these three things:
- Box Count: Watch how many defenders are near the line. If a team faces "light boxes" (6 or fewer defenders), their rushing yards per game will almost always stay high.
- Offensive Line Continuity: Rushing yards are 60% about the five guys up front. If a team loses their starting center, expect that yards-per-game number to crater.
- Schedule Strength: Some defenses, like the 2025 Broncos or Steelers, are designed specifically to stop the run. Don't expect a career day when a back faces a defensive front with a high "Stuffed" percentage.
The ground game isn't a relic of the past. It’s a tool. When used correctly, it’s the most demoralizing thing in sports. Just remember: the yards don't always tell you who played better; sometimes, they just tell you who had the lead.