Records are funny things. You look at the NFL regular season standings and see a team sitting at 12-5, and you think, "Man, they’re a juggernaut." But then you dig into the strength of victory or how they performed against common opponents, and suddenly that record looks a bit more like a house of cards. Honestly, the standings are basically a massive puzzle where the pieces don't always fit perfectly until the final whistle of Week 18.
Take the 2024 season. It was wild. You had the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions both finishing with identical 15-2 records to lead their respective conferences. On paper, they were the kings of the hill. But the road to those records couldn't have been more different. The Lions were an offensive machine, putting up a staggering 564 points, while the Chiefs played a much more calculated, defensive-heavy game that relied on Patrick Mahomes pulling a rabbit out of a hat in the fourth quarter.
The standings aren't just about who won more; they’re about the context of those wins.
The AFC Power Struggle: Dominance and Disappointment
The AFC in 2024 was a gauntlet. If you weren't winning 10 games, you were basically irrelevant in the playoff conversation. The Buffalo Bills finished 13-4, yet they still had to play on Wild Card weekend because the Chiefs just wouldn't lose.
The Top Tier
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-2): Clinched the #1 seed. They were 8-0 at home. Total dominance.
- Buffalo Bills (13-4): Won the AFC East. They had a +157 point differential, which is insane.
- Baltimore Ravens (12-5): Took the AFC North. Lamar Jackson was Lamar Jackson, but their defense—specifically guys like Ar'Darius Washington—really saved their season after a shaky start.
- Houston Texans (10-7): Won the AFC South. C.J. Stroud proved the rookie year wasn't a fluke.
Then you have the "surprises." The Denver Broncos somehow scraped together 10 wins to grab a Wild Card spot. Nobody saw that coming. On the flip side, look at the New York Jets. They finished 3-14. All that hype, all that talk about Aaron Rodgers, and they ended up tied for the worst record in the conference with the Raiders and Titans. It just goes to show that "winning the offseason" means absolutely zero when the actual games start.
The NFC: Where Chaos is the Only Constant
The NFC felt more top-heavy but also way more unpredictable. The Detroit Lions were the story of the year at 15-2, but the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings were breathing down their necks at 14-3.
Wait, the Vikings? Yeah. Sam Darnold actually did it. He turned his career around and led Minnesota to a 14-3 record, though they technically finished as a Wild Card because the Lions owned the North. Imagine winning 14 games and not even winning your division. That’s the kind of heartbreak the NFL regular season standings can dish out.
NFC Division Winners
- Detroit Lions (North): 15-2. Best offense in the league, period.
- Philadelphia Eagles (East): 14-3. They were nearly flawless on the road (6-2).
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (South): 10-7. They won a tiebreaker over the Rams for the #3 seed.
- Los Angeles Rams (West): 10-7. Matthew Stafford still has the juice.
The South was, as usual, a bit of a mess. The Carolina Panthers finished 8-9 and technically won the division in some alternate universe of tiebreakers, but in the final 2024 standings, they missed the cut while the Bucs took the crown. The 8-9 record is the "mediocrity line" that seems to haunt the NFC South every single year.
🔗 Read more: Peyton Manning Net Worth: Why He’s Wealthier Now Than During His NFL Days
How the Standings Actually Work (The Nerd Stuff)
Most fans just look at the W-L column, but the NFL uses a specific hierarchy to settle ties. It’s not just a coin flip. If two teams in the same division have the same record, the league looks at head-to-head results first. If they split those, it goes to the record within the division.
Tiebreaker Priority List
- Head-to-head: Did you beat the guy you’re tied with?
- Division Record: How did you do against your closest rivals?
- Common Games: Record against the same opponents.
- Conference Record: This is huge for Wild Card seeding.
- Strength of Victory: The combined win percentage of the teams you actually beat.
Strength of victory (SOV) is the one that kills dreams. You might have 11 wins, but if you beat a bunch of 3-14 teams, the league basically says those wins are worth less than someone who beat a bunch of winning teams. It’s harsh but fair.
Surprises That Broke the Standings
We have to talk about the Washington Commanders. They finished 12-5. Jayden Daniels didn't just play well; he fundamentally changed how people viewed that franchise. They ended up as the #6 seed in the NFC, but they played like a top-three team for most of the season.
✨ Don't miss: what time ga game: Everything You Need for the Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Today
Then there's the San Francisco 49ers. Talk about a collapse. They finished 6-11. One year they're in the Super Bowl, the next they're 4th in the NFC West. Injuries played a role, sure, but 6-11 is a massive fall from grace for a team that was favored to win it all in August.
Actionable Insights for the Next Season
If you're looking at the standings to figure out who to watch (or who to bet on) next year, don't just look at the wins. Look at the Point Differential.
Teams with a high positive point differential but a middling record are usually "unlucky" and tend to bounce back the following year. Conversely, teams that win a lot of one-score games but have a negative point differential (looking at you, 2024 Steelers) are usually due for a regression.
What to check in the final standings:
- Home vs. Road Splits: A team that can’t win on the road (like the 2024 Bengals at 3-6) isn't a true contender.
- Division Record: If a team can't win their own division games, they’ll never get a high seed.
- Last 5 Games: Momentum is real. The Commanders went 5-0 in their last five, which signaled their deep playoff run before it even started.
The NFL regular season standings are the ultimate truth-teller, even if that truth is sometimes ugly. Whether it's the Eagles finally getting back to the mountaintop or the Chiefs proving they're a dynasty, the numbers don't lie—they just need a little bit of explaining.
📖 Related: The Score for Detroit Lions: What Actually Happened in the 2025-26 Season Finale
Next Steps for You:
- Analyze Point Differential: Go back and look at the "Net Pts" column for the 2024 season. Find the teams that had a positive net but a losing record; those are your sleeper picks for 2025.
- Track Coaching Changes: Teams like the Bears (5-12) or the Jets (3-14) often see a massive standings jump after a coaching overhaul. Keep an eye on the "Strength of Schedule" for these rebuilding teams.