Honestly, the NFL is a chaotic mess right now. If you’re looking at the NFL rankings week 4 and thinking you’ve got a handle on who’s actually good, you’re probably lying to yourself. We just watched a weekend where the "invincible" fell, the "winless" rose, and Matthew Stafford decided to play like it was 2021 again.
It’s tempting to just stare at the standings and assume the 4-0 teams are locks for the Super Bowl. But if you look closer, the cracks are massive. Some of these rosters are held together by literal duct tape and prayer.
The Fraud Alert: Why 4-0 Doesn't Mean 4-0
Let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles. They sit at 4-0 after a 31-25 win over Tampa Bay. On paper? Dominant. In reality? It was a rollercoaster of "what are they doing?" moments. Jalen Hurts is winning, sure, but the offense has been wildly inconsistent. They didn't even complete a pass in the second half of one game earlier this year.
Then there’s the Buffalo Bills. They are the only unbeaten team left in the AFC at 4-0. They just took down the Saints 31-19, but their defense is a revolving door. They gave up 189 rushing yards to New Orleans. That’s not a championship-caliber stat line, period.
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NFL Rankings Week 4: The Top 5 Reality Check
Most experts are shuffling the deck this week. Here is how the power structure actually looks when you strip away the hype.
- Philadelphia Eagles (4-0): They stay at the top because winning is the only stat that matters at the end of the day. But Vic Fangio has his work cut out for him. The Birds are currently dead last in the league in defensive rush success rate. If you can run on Philly, you can beat Philly.
- Buffalo Bills (4-0): Josh Allen is playing MVP-level football, throwing 19 touchdowns with only one interception in his last 11 games (dating back to last year). However, the Bills are down to three healthy wide receivers. Tyrell Shavers is playing through a torn ACL, which is insane and probably unsustainable.
- Detroit Lions (3-1): This might be the most "complete" team in the league. They absolutely dismantled the Browns 34-10. Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 6.1 yards per carry. When the Lions' offensive line is humming like that, they are basically impossible to stop.
- Los Angeles Rams (3-1): Matthew Stafford just threw for 375 yards against the Colts. Puka Nacua is a cheat code. They moved up four spots in most rankings this week because they actually look like they're getting better every Sunday.
- Kansas City Chiefs (2-2): Yeah, they started slow. But they just pummeled the Ravens 37-20. Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdowns and looked like the guy who owns the AFC again. Never count out the lizard king.
The "Oh No" Tier: Teams Plummeting Fast
The Baltimore Ravens are in a tailspin. 1-3. That’s not a typo. Lamar Jackson got sacked seven times by Detroit a couple of weeks ago, and the momentum never came back. They looked "a mess" in the blowout loss to the Chiefs. The sky isn't falling, but the clouds are looking pretty dark in Maryland.
And the San Francisco 49ers? They just took their first loss to the Jaguars, 26-21. Kyle Shanahan is a genius, but even geniuses struggle when George Kittle tears his Achilles. The Niners are still dangerous, but they aren't the juggernaut we expected in August.
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Surprises That Actually Matter
Did anyone have the New York Giants upsetting the Chargers on their bingo card? Jaxson Dart made his first start and actually looked... competent? The Giants won 21-18. It’s one game, but for a team that’s been 3-17 in their last 20 starts, it felt like winning the lottery.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears are suddenly fun to watch. Caleb Williams is doing Caleb Williams things. They beat the Raiders 25-24 on a blocked field goal at the buzzer. It’s ugly, it’s stressful, but it’s 2-2. In Chicago, that’s cause for a parade.
The Stats That Tell the Real Story
If you want to know who is going to win in Week 5, stop looking at points scored. Look at the trenches.
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- Jaguars Defense: They are only allowing 85.6 rushing yards per game. That’s why they beat the Niners.
- Patriots Efficiency: Under Mike Vrabel, they just beat Carolina 42-13. Drake Maye is finally hitting Stefon Diggs for big gains.
- Steelers Air Game: Aaron Rodgers targeted DK Metcalf early and often in their win over Minnesota. Rodgers might be old, but that 80-yard TD to Metcalf proved the arm is still there.
Actionable Insights for Week 5
If you’re tracking these rankings for your pick'em league or just to argue with your coworkers, keep these three things in mind. First, fade the Eagles' defense against any team with a top-10 rushing attack. They can't stop the run right now. Second, keep an eye on the Bills' injury report. You cannot play NFL football with only three healthy receivers for long. Third, the Lions are the "buy low" team of the month. Their schedule softens up, and their lines are dominated on both sides of the ball.
The hierarchy is shifting. By next Tuesday, half of this list will probably be flipped upside down again. That's the beauty of it.