The hype is different this time. Usually, by the time we hit January, the NFL draft world has a pretty solid "Big Three" or "Big Four" when it comes to the guys under center. But looking at the NFL QB prospects 2026 class, things feel a bit like the Wild West. You've got blue-bloods like Arch Manning living under a microscope, transfer portal stars like Fernando Mendoza reinventing themselves, and a bunch of massive "what-ifs" that keep GMs up at night.
Honestly, it’s a weird year. We aren't looking at a Caleb Williams or a Trevor Lawrence type of "sure thing" consensus just yet. Instead, we have a pool of talent that is incredibly high on upside but equally high on "will he actually declare?"
The Fernando Mendoza Factor: From Cal to Top of the Board
If you told a scout two years ago that an Indiana quarterback named Fernando Mendoza would be the presumptive QB1 for 2026, they’d probably ask you to pass whatever you were drinking. But here we are. Mendoza’s rise has been nothing short of meteoric. Standing 6-foot-5 and weighing in at 225 pounds, he looks like he was built in a lab to play on Sundays.
What really separates him isn't just the frame; it's the rhythm. When he's "on," he dices up defenses like a ten-year vet. He threw for over 3,000 yards in 2024 at Cal before moving to Indiana and basically becoming the face of a program that suddenly found itself in the College Football Playoff conversation.
Scouts compare him to Jared Goff because of that pocket toughness and "gunslinger" mentality, but Mendoza actually has some wheels. He’s not going to outrun a linebacker, but he’ll move the chains on a scramble. The big question remains: Is he a product of the system? Some scouts point out that Kurtis Rourke put up nearly identical numbers in that same Indiana offense, which makes teams a little nervous about how much of the success is Mendoza and how much is just the scheme.
Arch Manning and the "Gene Pool" Premium
You can't talk about NFL QB prospects 2026 without the name Manning. It’s impossible. Arch Manning is the ultimate Rorschach test for NFL evaluators. Some see a first-round lock with the best pedigree in the history of the sport. Others see a kid who completed just 61.4% of his passes in 12 starts and looked, well, "erratic."
Here's the reality: Arch is a better athlete than Peyton or Eli ever were. He plays more like his grandfather, Archie. He’s got the 6-foot-4, 219-pound frame and an arm that can make every throw. But the 2025 season at Texas was a rollercoaster. He threw for 2,942 yards and 24 touchdowns, which is solid, but he also struggled against top-tier defenses like Ohio State and Florida.
"He might still go No. 1 overall," one college area scout told FOX Sports. "All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic."
The consensus? He’s likely staying in school for 2026 to polish those mechanics. If he does enter, the "Manning Name" acts as a massive floor for his draft stock. NFL teams will always bet on that DNA.
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Dante Moore: The Oregon Revitalization
Then there's Dante Moore. This kid’s journey is wild. He started at UCLA, got thrown into the fire way too early, and looked like he might be another "bust" headline. Then he goes to Oregon, sits behind Dillon Gabriel for a year, and comes out in 2025 looking like a completely different player.
Moore is probably the most "pure" passer in this group. His release is lightning-quick, and he processes the field at a level that most 20-year-olds just can't match. He finished the 2025 regular season with over 2,100 yards and a 72.8% completion rate. That’s elite efficiency.
The knock on Moore? He’s a bit thin. At 6-foot-3 and around 206 pounds, there are genuine concerns about whether he can take the punishment of a 17-game NFL season. But if you're looking for a guy who can distribute the ball and make the "Mahomes-lite" off-platform throws, Moore is your guy.
Breaking Down the Next Tier
Beyond the big names, there is a group of quarterbacks that could easily vault into the first round with a strong offseason or a big playoff performance.
- Ty Simpson (Alabama): He’s been steady, if not spectacular. He’s got great touch and accuracy, though his arm strength isn't "wow" level. Think of him as a high-floor, mid-ceiling prospect.
- John Mateer (Oklahoma): A dual-threat weapon who transferred in and immediately made the Sooners' offense more dynamic. He’s 6-foot-1, so height is a concern, but his production is hard to ignore.
- LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina): Physically, he's a freak. 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, and runs like a deer. But the passing consistency just wasn't there in 2025. He’s the ultimate "project" pick.
- Nico Iamaleava (UCLA): Now at UCLA after leaving Tennessee, Nico has the highest ceiling of anyone. He’s 6-foot-6 with a cannon. But the decision-making? It’s... questionable. He’s prone to "hero ball," which leads to some ugly interceptions.
The Transfer Portal Mess
The 2026 class is defined by movement. Look at Malachi Nelson. He was the No. 1 recruit in the country, went to USC, then Boise State, then UTEP, and just entered the portal again for his fourth school in four years. It’s hard for NFL scouts to build a profile on a guy who changes zip codes every twelve months.
This "musical chairs" style of college football means that teams are putting more weight on traits than they are on career stats. If you've got the arm and the size, the NFL will find you, even if you spent your Saturday afternoons playing for a struggling G5 program.
What to Watch Moving Forward
If you're an NFL fan or a dynasty fantasy manager tracking these NFL QB prospects 2026, don't get too attached to current rankings. The College Football Playoff is going to be the ultimate litmus test for guys like Mendoza and Moore. One bad game under those lights can drop a guy from a top-5 lock to a second-day "maybe."
The league is moving toward mobility. Even the "pocket" guys like Mendoza are being asked to create outside the structure. If a prospect can't escape a collapsing pocket, they’re basically a non-starter in the modern NFL.
Your Next Steps for Scouting
- Watch the All-22 tape: If you really want to see who’s good, don't watch the highlights. Look for how these QBs handle pressure in their face and whether they're moving through their second and third reads.
- Monitor the declaration dates: Keep a close eye on Arch Manning and Dante Moore. If both stay in school, the 2026 QB class becomes extremely thin, which could artificially inflate the value of guys like Mendoza or Ty Simpson.
- Check the "Injury History": With guys like Jackson Arnold and Nico Iamaleava, the medical reports at the Combine will be just as important as the 40-yard dash.
The 2026 draft cycle is just beginning to heat up. It’s messy, it’s unpredictable, and it’s going to be a wild ride until the commissioner walks onto that stage in April.