Look, the NFL Divisional Round is usually the best weekend of the year for a reason. But if you’re staring at the board right now, something probably feels a little... off.
The lines are moving in weird directions. I’ve spent the morning looking at the numbers from bet365 and DraftKings, and honestly, the public is biting on some narratives that don't hold up once you look at the actual film from Wild Card weekend. We have No. 1 seeds like the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos coming off byes, facing battle-tested (but bruised) underdogs.
It’s tempting to just back the rested teams.
But history—and the current injury reports—suggests it’s never that simple. Let’s get into what the actual NFL projections this week are telling us about who is moving on to the title games.
The Mile High Headache: Bills at Broncos
This is the one everyone is talking about. You’ve got the No. 6 seed Buffalo Bills heading into Denver on Saturday. Most people see Josh Allen and just assume the Bills can win anywhere. They just took down the Jaguars 27-24, and Allen looked like his usual "I will do this myself" self.
But here is the thing.
The Broncos are the No. 1 seed for a reason. Bo Nix has actually been efficient—throwing for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. More importantly, Denver’s defense is a nightmare. They are finally getting Dre Greenlaw back at linebacker, which is massive for containing Allen’s scrambling.
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Most models, including the ones over at SportsLine, are actually leaning toward Denver covering the small spread. The line opened at Broncos -1.5, danced over to Bills -1.5, and is now settling back toward the home team.
The Bills are beat up. Terrel Bernard is out with a calf injury. Their defense is giving up way too many rushing yards lately. If Denver can run the ball and keep Allen on the sideline, the "upset" everyone is calling for might not materialize.
Why Nobody is Giving the 49ers a Chance
Saturday night is a bloodbath in the NFC West. The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Seattle. The Seahawks are favored by 7.5 points, which is the biggest spread of the week.
It makes sense on paper.
- Seattle has the No. 1 scoring defense.
- Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his life.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba is literally leading the league in receiving yards.
- Lumen Field is a house of horrors for road teams.
But 7.5 points? In a divisional rivalry? That feels like a lot. Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh have managed to squeeze 13 wins out of a roster that has been decimated by injuries. They just went into Philly and knocked off the Eagles 23-19.
The Niners have some major "zombie" energy right now. They won't die. However, their injury report is still a mess. Trent Williams and Ricky Pearsall are both limited. If Williams can’t go at 100%, that Seattle pass rush is going to feast. Honestly, I think Seattle wins, but laying more than a touchdown against a team that knows you this well is risky business.
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The Fraud Alert in Chicago: Rams vs. Bears
This is the game I’m most fascinated by. Sunday night at Soldier Field. The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point road favorites.
The Chicago Bears are basically the "How are they still here?" team of the 2026 playoffs. They keep winning one-score games. People call them frauds. Then Caleb Williams does something magical in the fourth quarter, and they win again.
But the Rams are a different beast. Puka Nacua is a problem that Chicago’s secondary—already dealing with a concussion to Chauncey Gardner-Johnson—might not be able to solve.
The weather is going to be classic January in Chicago. Cold. Windy. Gritty. Usually, that favors the home team, but the Rams' offense is so explosive that they can score 30 points in a blizzard. The "smart money" is on the Rams, but the Bears have covered the spread at home in their last five meetings with LA.
The Patriots and the "Nico Collins" Factor
Finally, we have the Houston Texans at the New England Patriots.
This game hinges entirely on one man: Nico Collins. He got carted off on Monday night with a head injury. If he doesn't clear protocol, the Texans' offense loses its engine.
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New England is laying 2.5 or 3 points depending on where you look. They are 7-1 all-time at home against Houston. Drake Maye has turned that offense into a ball-control machine that just wears you down. They just choked the life out of the Chargers in a 16-3 win.
If Collins is out, I don’t see how Houston scores enough to keep up. The Patriots are arguably the most well-rounded team left in the AFC. They don’t beat themselves.
Actionable Strategy for This Week
If you are looking at the NFL projections this week to make some moves, here is how you should actually approach it:
- Watch the Saturday Morning Reports: Specifically for Trent Williams (49ers) and Dre Greenlaw (Broncos). These two players change the entire math of those games.
- Don't overreact to Wild Card Blowouts: The Texans looked great, but playing a short week and traveling to Foxborough is a massive disadvantage.
- The "Hook" Matters: In the Rams/Bears game, that 3.5 number is vital. If you can get the Bears at +4 or better, the history of home dogs in the divisional round says you take it. If it drops to 2.5, stay away.
- Total Trends: Early action is hitting the Under in Denver and the Over in Chicago. Given the weather forecasts, the Chicago Over (around 51) feels ambitious.
The most important thing to remember? The No. 1 seeds have had a week to sit on their couches and watch film. That rest advantage usually manifests in the third quarter when the Wild Card winners start to run out of gas. Don't be surprised if these games are close at halftime but turn into double-digit wins by the fourth.
Check the final injury designations 90 minutes before kickoff on Saturday. That is where the real value is found.