Preseason football is a weird beast. You’re watching guys whose names you won't remember in three weeks play "prevent" defense against a third-string quarterback from a Division II school. Most people look at the scoreboard and think it’s a joke. But if you’re looking at nfl preseason odds today, you know it’s actually one of the few times the average bettor has a legitimate edge over the massive sportsbooks.
Why? Because the books hate the preseason.
During the regular season, the lines are razor-sharp. Thousands of data points, injury reports, and weather patterns are baked into every point spread. In the preseason, the oddsmakers are essentially guessing just as much as you are. They don't know if a coach is going to pull his starters after one series or let them play the whole first half to "build character."
The QB Depth Trap
Most bettors make the mistake of looking at the starting lineup. That’s a massive blunder. In August, the "starter" is irrelevant to the final score. You want to look at the second and third string.
Think about it.
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If the New York Giants are playing the Detroit Lions, the fact that Daniel Jones is starting doesn't matter if he's only playing two series. What matters is who comes in next. Is it a seasoned veteran who has started 40 NFL games but is now a backup? Or is it an undrafted rookie who’s still trying to figure out how to call a play in the huddle?
Why Experience Matters in Exhibition
Veteran backups are preseason gold. These guys know the speed of the game. They aren't panicked by a blitz. More importantly, they’re often playing against "camp bodies"—players who will be working at a car dealership by September. When a guy like Taylor Heinicke or Andy Dalton (if they're in backup roles) steps onto the field in the second quarter against a bunch of rookies, the nfl preseason odds today usually don't reflect that massive talent gap.
- The Rookie Factor: Rookie QBs are volatile. They might throw for 200 yards or three picks.
- The "Vegas" Factor: Lines for preseason games rarely move more than a point or two unless a coach explicitly says he's sitting everyone.
- The Motivation Factor: Teams with new head coaches often try harder in the preseason. They want to establish a "culture of winning" early.
Coaches Who Actually Care (And Those Who Don't)
You’ve got to track coaching records. It sounds nerdy, but it’s the most consistent way to win. Some coaches, like John Harbaugh with the Ravens, historically treat the preseason like it's the Super Bowl. They went on a 24-game preseason winning streak that lasted years.
Then you have coaches who couldn't care less. They use these games strictly for evaluation. They’ll run the same play three times in a row just to see if their right tackle can block a specific stunt. If they lose by 30, they sleep just fine.
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When checking nfl preseason odds today, always cross-reference the line with the head coach’s historical ATS (Against The Spread) record in August. It’s a completely different skillset than coaching on a Sunday in December.
The Under Is Your Best Friend
Points are hard to come by when the people playing together have only known each other for two weeks. The timing is off. The offensive line isn't cohesive. Receivers run the wrong routes.
This is why the "Under" is such a popular play.
However, sportsbooks know this. In 2026, we're seeing preseason totals sitting as low as 34 or 35 points. That’s tiny. To hit the "Over," you basically need both teams to accidentally stumble into the end zone a few times. Honestly, watching a 13-10 preseason game is painful, but if you bet the under, it's the most beautiful thing in the world.
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Small Details That Change Everything
Watch the joint practices. If the two teams playing each other on Friday have been beating the crap out of each other in joint practices all week, they’re usually exhausted by game time. The starters might not even play a single snap because they got their "work" in during the Tuesday/Wednesday sessions.
Actionable Steps for Betting NFL Preseason Odds Today
If you're looking to actually put money down, don't just wing it.
- Check the Beat Reporters: Follow the team's local beat writers on social media about two hours before kickoff. They usually post exactly who is dressed and who is sitting.
- Fade the Public: If everyone is talking about a "star rookie" making his debut, the line is probably inflated. The public loves betting on hype.
- Monitor the Weather: Preseason games in Florida or Texas in August are brutal. Players gas out by the second quarter. This almost always favors the defense and the under.
- Look for "Contract" Players: Look for the guys who are on the bubble. The fourth-string running back fighting for a roster spot will run harder than a starter ever will in an exhibition game.
Stop looking at the team logo and start looking at the roster depth. The nfl preseason odds today are there for the taking if you're willing to do the boring work of checking the second-string offensive line. It’s not glamorous, but it’s how you actually beat the house before the real season even starts.
Focus on the coaches with winning records in August and the teams with veteran backups who are too good for third-string defenses. That's the real "secret" to the preseason.