Look, I get it. We all love a good narrative. We love the idea of the "unstoppable" No. 1 seed and the "plucky" wild card team just happy to be there. But if this season has taught us anything—and honestly, it’s been a weird one—it’s that the standings are often a lie. By the time we hit the mid-January chill of 2026, the NFL power rankings we saw in October look like they were written for a different league.
The Divisional Round is where the pretenders usually get exposed. You’ve got the Seattle Seahawks sitting pretty at the top of the NFC, while the AFC is a three-headed monster of New England, Denver, and a Buffalo team that refuses to go away. But if you’re just looking at win-loss records to determine who’s actually the best right now, you’re missing the forest for the trees.
The AFC Power Vacuum: Is Denver Actually the Team to Beat?
The Denver Broncos finished the regular season 14-3. They secured the No. 1 seed. On paper, they are the kings of the AFC. But have you actually watched them lately? Bo Nix has been serviceable, sure, but they’ve basically been living on the edge of a cliff. They finished the year with 11 one-score wins. That is an insane stat. It suggests a team that knows how to win, but it also suggests a team that is one bad bounce away from a disaster.
Compare that to the New England Patriots. Drake Maye is playing like a guy who’s been in the league for a decade. Mike Vrabel has that defense playing with a mean streak we haven't seen in Foxborough since the early 2000s. They blew out the Jets and handled the Chargers with ease in the Wild Card round. Honestly, if you’re ranking teams based on who you’d least want to play on a Sunday in January, the Patriots are probably 1a or 1b.
Then there’s the Houston Texans. They started 0-3! People were calling for DeMeco Ryans' head. Now? They’ve got the longest winning streak in the NFL and a defense that leads the league in total yards allowed. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are basically a two-man wrecking crew. They aren't just winning; they are bullying people.
Ranking the AFC Heavyweights
- New England Patriots: The most complete team. Drake Maye is the real deal, and the return of Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III just in time for the playoffs is huge.
- Denver Broncos: The "statistically" best team, but the +90 point differential is a bit concerning compared to the other top seeds. They rely heavily on that home-field altitude.
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen is the ultimate wildcard. He can throw for 400 yards and four scores, or he can turn the ball over three times in the red zone. You never know which one you're getting.
- Houston Texans: The scariest "low" seed. If C.J. Stroud stays clean, that defense will do the rest.
The NFC Chaos: Seattle vs. The World
In the NFC, it feels like the Seattle Seahawks and then everyone else. Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a brick wall. They finished the season allowing only 17.2 points per game. That’s best in the league. But more importantly, their run game finally woke up. Averaging over 140 yards on the ground over the last two months? That's championship football.
But don't sleep on the Los Angeles Rams. Matthew Stafford is 37 and playing the best football of his life. PFF has him as the highest-graded passer in the league, and with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams catching everything in sight, that offense is a nightmare to scheme against. They might have been a wild card team, but they have the highest ceiling in the entire tournament.
And then there's the San Francisco 49ers. It's weird seeing them as a No. 6 seed, right? They've been through a lot of injuries—losing George Kittle to an Achilles is a massive blow—but Kyle Shanahan is still a wizard. They beat the Bears in a 42-38 shootout that was probably the game of the year. You can never truly count them out because Christian McCaffrey is still a human cheat code.
Why NFL Power Rankings Often Fail to Predict the Super Bowl
Most people look at NFL power rankings and think they are a forecast. They aren't. They are a snapshot. The problem with snapshots is that they don't show the momentum or the "health curve."
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Take the Jacksonville Jaguars. They were the No. 1 team in some rankings heading into Week 17. They had won seven straight! Then they hit the playoffs and Josh Allen (the Buffalo one) absolutely took over, sending them home early. Momentum is a fickle thing.
The teams that actually win in late January are the ones that have a "gimmick" that works in bad weather.
- Elite Pass Rush: Houston and New England have this in spades.
- Reliable Run Game: Seattle finally found theirs.
- Veteran QB Poise: Stafford and Maye (despite being young) have shown it.
The Bottom Line for Your Playoff Bracket
If you're trying to figure out who is actually going to be holding the Lombardi Trophy, stop looking at the 14-3 records. Look at point differential. Look at red zone efficiency. The Jaguars lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over inside the 20. The Broncos might be next if Bo Nix can't handle the pressure of a divisional-round pass rush.
Right now, the "eye test" says the Seahawks are the team to beat in the NFC, but the Rams are the ones I’d be terrified of. In the AFC, it’s New England’s world, and we’re all just living in it.
What you should do next:
Keep a close eye on the injury reports for the Divisional Round, specifically the offensive lines for Houston and Denver. A single missing starter on the line changes the entire power dynamic of these matchups. Also, check the weather forecasts for Seattle and Foxborough—teams that rely on the deep ball like the Rams might struggle if the wind kicks up over 20 mph.