Total yards are a lie. Honestly, if you're still looking at total offense rankings to figure out who the best team in the league is, you’re basically looking at a map of the wrong city. We’ve all seen it: a team racks up 450 yards of offense but loses 17-10 because they turned the ball over twice in the red zone and missed a field goal. Yardage doesn't win games. Points do. But even total points can be deceptive because of how much pace and defensive performance dictate opportunity. That’s exactly why NFL points per drive is the gold standard for anyone trying to actually understand football efficiency.
It's simple. Every time an offense touches the ball, they have one job. Score. Whether they start at their own 1-yard line or the opponent's 20, the goal remains identical. By measuring how many points a team averages every single time they get a possession, you strip away the noise of garbage time, slow-paced "ground and pound" schemes, and defensive struggles that keep an offense off the field. It’s the truth serum of NFL analytics.
How Points Per Drive Cuts Through the Noise
Total points scored is often just a reflection of how many chances a team got. If a defense is incredible and forces three-and-outs every series, their offense might get 14 or 15 possessions in a game. Conversely, a team with a terrible defense might only see the ball 8 times because the opponent is milking the clock on 10-minute drives. If both teams score 24 points, the second team was actually way more efficient. They maximized their limited windows.
Football Outsiders (and now FTN Fantasy) have championed these drive-based metrics for years because they correlate more closely with winning than almost any other raw box score stat. When you look at the 2023-2024 season, the San Francisco 49ers led the league in points per drive at roughly 2.71. For context, the league average usually hovers around 1.8 to 2.0. That gap is massive. It’s the difference between a Super Bowl contender and a team fighting for a wild card spot.
Think about the "prevent defense" scenarios. A team is up by 20 in the fourth quarter. They play soft coverage, let the opponent dink and dunk their way down the field for a meaningless touchdown, and suddenly the "total yards" look respectable for the losing side. NFL points per drive accounts for this. It highlights that the winning team was surgical when the game was actually in doubt.
The Components of a High-Efficiency Drive
What actually makes a team's PPD skyrocket? It’s not just big plays. It’s a combination of three things that coaches like Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan obsess over.
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First, you’ve got to stay ahead of the chains. Negative plays are the absolute killer of points per drive. A sack on first down or a holding penalty basically tanks the statistical probability of that drive ending in a touchdown. Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs under Patrick Mahomes have historically been masters at "staying on schedule." Even if they aren't chunking 40 yards at a time, they avoid the 2nd-and-20 situations that force punts.
Success rate is the hidden engine here.
If you gain 4 yards on 1st-and-10, that’s a success.
If you gain 3 yards on 2nd-and-6, that’s a success.
If you convert the 3rd-and-3, you’ve kept the drive alive.
Second, red zone touchdown percentage is huge. You can’t settle for three. Field goals are essentially "failed" drives in the eyes of elite PPD. If you drive 80 yards and kick a field goal, you got 3 points. If you drive 20 yards after a turnover and score a touchdown, you got 7. The PPD metric rewards the latter more heavily because, well, 7 is better than 3.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, is turnover avoidance. A turnover is a 0-point drive. Worse, it often hands the opponent a short field. The reason the 2023 Baltimore Ravens were so terrifying wasn't just Lamar Jackson's highlights; it was their ability to protect the ball while consistently ending drives with a kicker or a celebration.
Why 2.0 is the Magic Number
If your team is averaging over 2.0 points per drive, you are likely a playoff team. It sounds low, right? But think about the math. A typical NFL game has about 10 to 12 possessions per team. If you're averaging 2.5 PPD, you're scoring 25 to 30 points a game. In the modern NFL, that wins you about 70% of your matchups.
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Compare that to the basement dwellers. The 2023 New York Jets or the Carolina Panthers often hovered around 1.1 or 1.2 PPD. When you are that inefficient, you have to play "perfect" defense to even stay in the game. It puts an unsustainable amount of pressure on the other side of the ball.
There’s also a "Field Position" factor that skeptics bring up. Does a team with a great defense have an unfair advantage in PPD because they start closer to the end zone? Sorta. But that’s why some analysts use "Value Over Average" (VOA) to adjust for starting field position. Even then, the elite offenses usually stay at the top. Great players make the most of what they're given. Period.
Defensive Points Per Drive: The Other Side of the Coin
We usually talk about PPD in terms of offense, but defensive points per drive is just as telling. It measures how many points a defense surrenders every time the opponent touches the ball. In 2023, the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens were the gold standard here.
A "bend-but-don't-break" defense might give up a lot of yards, but if they force a field goal or a turnover once the opponent crosses the 30-yard line, their defensive PPD stays low. This is why the bend-but-don't-break philosophy actually works for some teams. They don't care if you move the ball in the middle of the field; they care about the scoreboard.
If you want to find the next "fraud" team—a team with a winning record that isn't actually that good—look for a massive discrepancy between their PPD and their win-loss record. Usually, those teams are winning close games because of luck or an unsustainable turnover margin. Eventually, the PPD catches up to them.
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Practical Ways to Use Points Per Drive Today
So, how do you actually use this info? If you’re a fan, a bettor, or a fantasy football player, stop looking at "Total Offense" stats on the Sunday night broadcasts. They’re fluff.
- Check the Net PPD: Subtract defensive PPD from offensive PPD. This "Net" number is the single best predictor of future success. Teams with a high Net PPD are the ones you want to bet on in December and January.
- Evaluate the "Quiet" Offenses: Sometimes a team looks boring because they run the ball and use the whole play clock. Check their PPD. If it’s high (like the Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers are expected to be), they are actually a powerhouse, just a slow one.
- Red Zone Regression: If a team has a high PPD but a low Red Zone TD percentage, they are "due" for a breakout. They are moving the ball efficiently but getting unlucky at the goal line. That luck usually turns.
- Live Betting: If you're watching a game and one team is consistently getting into scoring range but stalled by one weird penalty, their PPD suggests they’ll eventually break through.
The NFL is a game of small samples. With only 17 games, one or two blowout wins can skew total season stats. Drive-based metrics provide a larger sample size of "events" to analyze, giving us a clearer picture of who is actually dominant when the whistle blows.
Stop counting yards. Start counting what happens every time the quarterback breaks the huddle. That’s where the truth lives.
Next Steps for Deep Analysis:
To get the most accurate current-season data, visit Pro Football Reference and navigate to their "Drive Finder" or "Team Offense" tabs. Look specifically for the "Scoring%" and "Pnt%" columns. A high Scoring Percentage combined with a low Punt Percentage is the hallmark of an elite unit. For those who want to go deeper into "Expected Points Added" (EPA), sites like RBSDM provide real-time updates on how every individual play contributes to a drive's scoring potential. By tracking these metrics weekly, you'll spot the Super Bowl favorites long before the mainstream media starts talking about them.