Everyone is staring at the board right now, and honestly, it feels a little like a trap. We just watched a Wild Card weekend where underdogs went 4-0 against the spread (ATS) early on, yet here we are, looking at NFL point spreads this week that seem to be begging us to take the favorites.
But it’s never that simple, is it?
The 2026 Divisional Round is a weird one. We’ve got a No. 1 seed in the Denver Broncos who opened as a home underdog against a No. 6 seed. That doesn't happen. Like, ever. Then you have the Seattle Seahawks sitting as massive touchdown favorites against a division rival they just beat two weeks ago. If you think you know how this goes, you might want to take a breath and look at the actual numbers moving the market.
Why the Bills are Favourites Over a No. 1 Seed
The most jarring number on the slate is Buffalo (-1.5) at Denver.
Let that sink in. The Broncos had the bye. They have the home-field advantage at Mile High. They are the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Yet, the NFL point spreads this week have the Bills as the favorite. Why?
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Two words: Josh Allen.
Allen just put the team on his back to beat Jacksonville 27-24, and the market is reacting to his "superman" mode. He leads the league in almost every meaningful postseason metric since 2018. We're talking about a guy with a 25-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Denver has been a bit of a "quiet" top seed. They have a dominant defense, sure, but people are worried about their offense keeping pace if Josh Allen starts doing Josh Allen things.
The line actually flipped. Denver opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the money poured in on Buffalo. Now, the Broncos are +1.5 at home. If you believe in rest over rhythm, this is where you make your stand. But if you think Allen is the inevitable force he’s looked like lately, you’re laying the points and not looking back.
The NFC West Trilogy: Seattle Giving 7 Points
Over in the NFC, we have the Seattle Seahawks (-7) hosting the San Francisco 49ers.
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Seven points is a massive spread for a divisional playoff game between two teams that know each other's laundry. These teams split the regular season. San Francisco won in Seattle back in Week 1, but Seattle absolutely dismantled them 13-3 in Week 18.
The reason the spread is so high? Injuries and the "Sam Darnold" factor.
The 49ers are officially without George Kittle (Achilles), which is a massive blow to their intermediate passing game. On the other side, Seattle’s defense has been historic lately, allowing only 13 points over their last two games combined. Mike Macdonald seems to have Kyle Shanahan’s number. However, seven points is a lot to give a 49ers team that just beat the Eagles on the road. Most "sharps" are looking at that +7 and wondering if the market has overcorrected because of the Week 18 result.
Sunday's Heavy Hitters: Rams and Patriots
Sunday brings us two more fascinating lines that have been jumping around all week:
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- Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3): The Patriots defense is the story here. They just held the Chargers to 3 points. But Houston is on a 10-game winning streak. The spread is staying firm at 3, mostly because the public is terrified of betting against a New England team at home in January.
- LA Rams (-3.5) at Chicago Bears: This is the "Cardiac Kids" versus the "Veterans." Caleb Williams and the Bears have seven fourth-quarter comebacks this year. Despite being the No. 2 seed, Chicago is a 3.5-point home underdog. The Rams look like a juggernaut with Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, but betting against the Bears at Soldier Field has been a losing proposition lately—Chicago is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against LA.
How to Read These Lines Without Losing Your Mind
If you're trying to make sense of the NFL point spreads this week, you have to look at the "Short Week" factor.
Houston is coming off a Monday night game. They have to travel to New England on a short week to face a rested Patriots team. That is a brutal spot. Historically, teams in that position struggle to cover the spread, which is why that New England -3 line feels a little low to some experts.
Then there's the total. The Seahawks/49ers total is sitting at 45.5. Both regular-season games stayed under that number. If the Niners can't score without Kittle, and Seattle continues to run the ball and kill the clock, the Under looks like the smartest play in the building, regardless of who covers the spread.
Key Betting Trends for the Divisional Round
- The Home Dog Alert: The Chicago Bears (+3.5) are home underdogs despite being a higher seed. This often signals that the "better" team is actually the road favorite in the eyes of the bookmakers.
- The Mile High Flip: Watching the Bills move from +1.5 to -1.5 in Denver tells you exactly where the "sharp" money went early in the week.
- The Rest Advantage: Denver and Seattle are the only teams coming off byes. Historically, No. 1 seeds have a massive advantage, but they are only 1-1 ATS as favorites in this specific round over the last two seasons.
It's easy to get blinded by the names on the jerseys. You see the Patriots and think "dynasty," or you see the Bills and think "unstoppable." But the reality of the NFL point spreads this week is that they are designed to split the public right down the middle.
Honestly, the smartest move right now is to ignore the hype around the quarterbacks and look at the trench matchups. If the Broncos can't run the ball against a Buffalo defense that has been "leaky" on the ground, Josh Allen won't even need to be a superhero—he’ll just be a frontrunner.
To make the most of this weekend, start by tracking the line movement on the Rams/Bears game. If that number moves to -4 or -4.5 for the Rams, the value on the Bears as a home underdog becomes almost impossible to ignore. Keep an eye on the injury reports for the 49ers' secondary as well, as any further thinning there could make that Seattle -7 look like a bargain before kickoff on Saturday night.