It finally happened. The regular season is in the rearview mirror, but the way we got here was absolutely mental. If you’ve been following the NFL playoffs clinching scenarios over the last few weeks, you know that 2026 decided to throw the script out the window. We had a rookie quarterback in Denver taking the top seed, a legend in Pittsburgh clinching a division on a missed field goal by a kid, and the Carolina Panthers making the dance with a losing record.
Honestly, it's the kind of chaos that makes you love—and maybe slightly hate—this league.
The AFC Power Vacuum and the Bo Nix Factor
Nobody, and I mean nobody, had the Denver Broncos pegged as the AFC’s No. 1 seed back in August. But here we are. Bo Nix didn't just survive his rookie year; he thrived, leading Denver to a 13-4 finish. Their path to clinching that first-round bye was a nail-biter right up until the end of Week 18.
Basically, the Broncos needed to take down the Chargers to keep the New England Patriots at bay. They did exactly that, winning 34-26 and securing home-field advantage through the AFC Championship. It’s a massive deal because playing in the thin air of Mile High in January is a nightmare for visiting teams.
Meanwhile, Drake Maye and the Patriots weren't exactly slouches. They finished with an identical 13-4 record (now 14-3 after the Wild Card round) but lost the tiebreaker to Denver. For a while there, New England fans were tracking every single Jaguars and Broncos game, hoping for a slip-up that would give them the week off. It didn't happen.
Pittsburgh's "Missed Kick" Miracle
If you want to talk about heart-stopping NFL playoffs clinching scenarios, you have to look at the AFC North. It came down to the final game of the regular season: Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football.
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The math was simple. Winner takes the division. Loser goes home.
It looked like the Ravens had it. Then, rookie kicker Tyler Loop—who had been solid all year—lined up for a potential game-winner. He missed. The Steelers didn't just clinch a playoff spot; they stole the division title with a 10-7 record. It sent Aaron Rodgers (yes, he's still doing this) and the Steelers into the postseason while Baltimore's season evaporated in a matter of seconds.
The NFC Side: Seattle's Dominance and Carolina’s Weird Entry
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks turned into an absolute wagon. They locked up the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, making the rest of the conference look like they were playing for second place.
But the real story—the one people will be arguing about at bars for years—is the Carolina Panthers.
- They finished 8-9.
- They clinched the NFC South because the Falcons beat the Saints.
- They became one of the few teams in NFL history to host a playoff game with a losing record.
It sort of feels wrong, doesn't it? But that’s the beauty of the divisional format. If you win your division, you're in, regardless of how ugly the win-loss column looks.
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How Tiebreakers Actually Decided the Field
We usually ignore the tiebreaker rules until they’re the only thing that matters. This year, "Strength of Victory" was the phrase of the month.
When the Bills, Texans, and Chargers all finished with 12 or 11 wins, the NFL's massive manual of rules came out. The Texans ended up with the No. 5 seed because of their head-to-head win over the Chargers in Week 17. That single 20-16 victory was the difference between traveling to Pittsburgh or having to go to New England.
It’s crazy how a random game in December can dictate your entire January.
Where We Stand Right Now
As of today, the Wild Card round has already claimed its first victims. The "losing record" Panthers are out, having lost a 34-31 thriller to the Rams. The Steelers’ magic also ran out against the Texans, who look like a legitimate Super Bowl threat under the direction of their suffocating defense.
The matchups for the Divisional Round are now set:
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- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (Saturday, Jan 17)
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Saturday, Jan 17)
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Sunday, Jan 18)
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (Sunday, Jan 18)
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're looking to stay ahead of the curve for the rest of the postseason, keep these specific factors in mind:
Watch the Injury Reports for the Bye Teams
The Broncos and Seahawks have had a week to heal. Check if Denver’s offensive line is back to 100%, as the Bills' pass rush is no joke.
Don't Sleep on the Texans' Defense
They just held the Steelers to 6 points. While New England is a different beast, Houston’s ability to score defensive touchdowns (they had two against Pittsburgh) makes them the ultimate "upset" candidate.
Understand the Home-Field Edge
The Seahawks and Broncos are famously difficult to play at home. In the Divisional Round, the home team wins roughly 70% of the time historically. If you're betting or playing fantasy, that's a stat you can't ignore.
Keep an eye on the weather reports for Denver and Chicago. Cold weather and wind change everything about how these teams call plays. If you see 20-mph winds in the forecast for Sunday, expect the Rams and Bears to keep the ball on the ground, which favors Chicago's physical style of play.