The math is finally mathing, and honestly, it’s not the kind of math anybody in the 513 area code wanted to do this January. If you've been checking the nfl playoff picture cincinnati bengals recently, you already know the harsh truth: the Bengals are officially on the outside looking in.
They finished the 2025-2026 campaign with a 6-11 record. A season that started with Super Bowl aspirations ended with a whimper in a 20-18 loss to the Cleveland Browns on January 4th.
It sucks. There’s really no other way to put it. For a team that has Joe Burrow under center and Ja’Marr Chase breaking records on the outside, sitting at home during the Wild Card round feels like a massive failure. But if you think the "Who Dey" window has slammed shut, you’re probably missing the bigger picture.
The Reality of the AFC Standings
Look at the AFC right now. It is a meat grinder. The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow clawed their way to an AFC North title at 10-7, while the Baltimore Ravens (8-9) and Cleveland Browns (5-12) basically cannibalized each other. Cincinnati sat right in the middle of that mess.
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The Bengals' defense was the primary culprit. They surrendered over 6,200 yards this season. That is dead last in the NFL. You can’t win games when you’re giving up nearly 400 yards a week, regardless of how many touchdowns Joe Burrow throws.
- Final AFC North Standings:
- Steelers (10-7) - Clinched Division
- Ravens (8-9) - Missed Playoffs
- Bengals (6-11) - Missed Playoffs
- Browns (5-12) - Missed Playoffs
Wait. Stop. Look at those records. The entire division was mediocre. The Steelers winning the North with 10 wins is wild, but it shows how thin the margin for error was. If the Bengals had just swung two or three of those one-score losses—like the 39-38 heartbreaker against the Jets or the 39-34 shootout in Buffalo—we’d be talking about a playoff seed right now.
Joe Burrow and the Health Factor
The elephant in the room is always #9’s health.
Burrow missed a huge chunk of the early season with a Grade 3 turf toe injury. He didn’t look like himself until that Thanksgiving night game against Baltimore. When he’s healthy, the Bengals look like a juggernaut. When he’s sidelined, and the team is leaning on Jake Browning or a late-career Joe Flacco (who they actually traded for in October), the rhythm just vanishes.
Burrow finished the season with 29 completions on 39 attempts for 236 yards and three scores in the finale. He’s still that guy. Ja’Marr Chase also solidified his legend status this year, passing Tyler Boyd for 4th on the Bengals' all-time receptions list. He’s got 514 catches now. He also passed Isaac Curtis for 4th in receiving touchdowns.
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Basically, the engine is fine. The tires are just flat.
What Needs to Change for 2026?
Joe Burrow didn't mince words after the Browns game. He told reporters, "Something's got to change." Ja'Marr Chase echoed that, saying the issues are "pretty obvious."
They aren't wrong.
The defense is a sieve. Allowing the most rushing yards in the league (2,382) is unacceptable for a team that wants to play in January. They need a massive overhaul on the defensive line and better depth in the secondary.
The offensive line also remains a "work in progress," which is a polite way of saying Burrow still takes too many hits. To be fair, the line looked better toward the end of the year, but "better" isn't "championship caliber."
Why 2026 Looks Different
The 2026 schedule is already finalized because of where they finished in the standings. Since they ended up 3rd in the AFC North, they get a "third-place schedule."
This means instead of playing the heavyweights of every division, they’ll face teams like the Miami Dolphins and the Washington Commanders in their rotating matchups. They also host the Jaguars and Titans at Paycor Stadium.
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Key Takeaways for the Offseason:
- Prioritize the Front Seven: You cannot be the worst rushing defense in football and expect to compete with the Ravens and Steelers.
- Protect the Franchise: The offensive line needs a blue-chip tackle or guard in the first round of the draft.
- Health Management: Finding a way to keep Burrow on the field for 17 games is the only thing that actually matters.
The nfl playoff picture cincinnati bengals fans are staring at right now is bleak, but the core is still there. Burrow, Chase, and Tee Higgins (if they can keep him) are a trio most GMs would trade their entire draft for.
It’s going to be a long winter in Cincinnati. But with a high draft pick and a last-place defensive ranking that literally cannot get any worse, the only direction is up.
If you’re looking for actionable steps to follow the Bengals this spring, keep a close eye on the scouting combine in February. The Bengals need to be looking at interior defensive linemen like it’s their job—because it is. Also, watch the cap space. With the way the roster is structured, they have some room to make a splash in free agency if they decide to go "all-in" one more time while Burrow is in his prime.