Wild Card Weekend just finished tearing up every "safe" bracket in America, and honestly, the betting board looks like a different planet than it did a week ago. If you were holding a ticket for the Philadelphia Eagles or the Jacksonville Jaguars, I’m sorry for your loss. They’re gone. The defending champion Eagles got bounced by a gritty San Francisco squad that seems to have found its second wind at exactly the right time.
Now we’re looking at a Divisional Round where the "favorites" are walking on thin ice.
You've probably noticed that the nfl playoff odds updated this morning show a massive surge for the Buffalo Bills. Even though Josh Allen and company have to travel to Mile High to face the top-seeded Denver Broncos, the oddsmakers aren't showing Denver much respect. Most major books like DraftKings and FanDuel actually have the 6-seed Bills as 1.5-point road favorites.
It’s rare. It’s weird. It’s January football.
The NFC Power Shift: Can Anyone Stop Seattle?
Seattle is sitting pretty with the No. 1 seed and +270 odds to win Super Bowl LX. Mike Macdonald has that defense playing like the "Legion of Boom" days, and Sam Darnold—yes, that Sam Darnold—is actually making people believe he’s an elite processor. They just sat at home and watched the rest of the NFC beat each other up, but their reward is a Divisional matchup against a 49ers team they’ve already played twice this year.
Division rivals in the playoffs? That’s always a recipe for a heart attack.
The 49ers are currently +2000 longshots, mostly because they’re playing without George Kittle (Achilles) and some key defensive pieces like Nick Bosa. But they just went into Philly and sucked the air out of the building. If you think Seattle is a lock at -7.5, you haven't been watching Kyle Shanahan's "next man up" wizardry.
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Then there’s the Rams.
Matthew Stafford is currently the betting favorite for Super Bowl MVP at +420. Think about that. He’s a 5-seed, yet the market thinks he’s the most likely guy to be holding the trophy in Santa Clara on February 8. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Chicago Bears this Sunday.
The Bears are the ultimate "Cardiac Kids." Caleb Williams turned into a superhero in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, leading a 25-point explosion. But veteran poise usually wins out in the Divisional round, which is why the money is pouring in on Stafford and Puka Nacua.
AFC Chaos: The No. 1 Seed Underdog
It’s basically unheard of for a 14-3 team like the Denver Broncos to be home underdogs in their first playoff game. But that's exactly where we are. Bo Nix has been fantastic, but he’s running into a buzzsaw.
Josh Allen’s stats in the postseason are, frankly, stupid. He’s got 25 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in his playoff career. After the Bills dismantled Jacksonville 27-24, their Super Bowl odds jumped to +550.
Current Super Bowl LX Odds (Post-Wild Card)
- Seattle Seahawks: +270 (The heavy hitters)
- Los Angeles Rams: +320 (The "Stafford" factor)
- Buffalo Bills: +550 (The hottest team in the league)
- New England Patriots: +600 (Drake Maye’s breakout year)
- Denver Broncos: +800 (The disrespected top seed)
- Houston Texans: +1200 (The "spoiler" potential)
- Chicago Bears: +1400 (The wild card... literally)
- San Francisco 49ers: +2000 (The battered giants)
Over in Foxborough, Mike Vrabel has the Patriots looking like a dynasty reborn. Drake Maye looked incredibly calm in a 16-3 win over the Chargers, but now he has to deal with DeMeco Ryans’ Houston Texans defense.
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The Texans are scary.
C.J. Stroud just put up 30 points on the Steelers like it was a 7-on-7 drill. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are probably the most terrifying edge-rushing duo left in the tournament. If you’re looking for a value bet, the Texans at +1200 feel like a steal, especially if Maye has a "rookie moment" under the playoff lights.
Why the Lines are Moving So Fast
NFL playoff odds updated minutes after the Monday night game for a reason: injuries and "momentum" metrics.
Look at the Packers-Bears game. Green Bay’s Jordan Love didn’t look 100%, and the market reacted instantly. By the time the Divisional lines opened, the Bears were getting more love than anyone expected because the market is obsessed with "the hot hand."
The same thing is happening with the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has a glaring weakness—they can’t stop the run. But in the playoffs, everyone bets on the elite quarterback. Since the Broncos don’t have a "superstar" at QB yet, the gambling public is fleeing Denver.
I’ve talked to several veteran bettors who think the Denver line is a trap. Playing at high altitude in January is miserable. Bo Nix has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter all season. If the Bills can't get out to an early lead, that +1.5 for Denver might look like the best bet of the year by Saturday night.
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Tactical Insights for the Divisional Round
If you're actually putting money down this weekend, stop looking at the regular season records. They don't matter anymore. Focus on the "trench" matchups.
The Rams-Bears game is going to be won in the dirt. Chicago’s offensive line has been shaky against power rushes, and the Rams have a young, violent front seven. That 3.5-point spread feels narrow, but Soldier Field is a nightmare to play in during a January freeze.
In the AFC, keep an eye on the Texans' cornerbacks. Derek Stingley Jr. is playing at an All-Pro level. If he can take away the Patriots’ primary option, can Drake Maye go through his progressions fast enough to avoid the Houston pass rush?
How to approach these updated odds:
- Don't chase the Seahawks' low payout. +270 isn't enough value when you realize they have to beat the 49ers and then likely the Rams or Bears just to get to the Super Bowl.
- Look at the Over/Under in New England. It’s sitting at 40.5. Both these defenses are top-tier, and the weather forecast is calling for wind. That’s a "slugfest" special.
- Hedge on the Broncos. Everyone is on the Bills. When everyone is on one side, it's usually time to look the other way.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara is narrowing. By Monday morning, we’ll be down to four teams, and these odds will probably be cut in half. If you like a longshot like the Texans or Bears, now is the only time you’re going to get these prices.
Next Steps for the Divisional Round
Check the final injury reports on Friday afternoon before locking in any bets on the 49ers or Broncos. Specifically, watch the status of Denver’s secondary; if they are healthy, the Bills might struggle to find the explosive plays they rely on. Monitor the weather in Chicago as well—extreme wind usually favors the under and the team with the better ground game, which, in this case, would be the Bears.