Man, looking back at the 2024 season, Week 14 was a total fever dream. If you were trying to nail your nfl picks week 14 2024, you probably felt like you were throwing darts at a board while blindfolded. Honestly, that’s just December football for you. Teams are banged up, the "contenders" start showing cracks, and the bottom-feeders suddenly decide they want to play spoiler for a better draft pick they’ll probably blow anyway.
The biggest shocker? That Rams-Bills shootout. Nobody—and I mean nobody—expected Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen to combine for 86 points in a game that felt more like a Big 12 track meet than an NFL December clash. But that’s the beauty (and the absolute pain) of picking these games.
The Chaos of the Rams and Bills Shootout
Let’s talk about that Rams +155 moneyline. If you grabbed that, you're basically a genius. Buffalo was a 3.5-point favorite heading into SoFi, and they looked like the safest bet on the board. Then the game started.
It was a 44-42 final that broke the brains of every defensive coordinator in the league. Josh Allen did everything. He threw for touchdowns, he ran for touchdowns, he probably sold popcorn at halftime. But the Rams’ offense was just a buzzsaw. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were finding holes in that Bills secondary that shouldn’t have existed.
Most people missed this pick because they overvalued the Bills' "momentum." Buffalo had been on a tear, but the Rams are a different beast when Stafford has time to breathe. It’s a classic example of why betting against Sean McVay as a home underdog is usually a recipe for a light wallet.
Why the Chiefs Always Scrape By
If you’ve watched the Chiefs at all over the last few years, you know the script. They play a division rival, they look "fine" but not great, and then they win by a hair. In Week 14, it was the Chargers.
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The final was 19-17.
K.C. was favored by nearly a touchdown, so if you took the Chargers to cover (+4.5), you walked away happy. If you picked the Chiefs to win outright, you were sweating until the very last second. Matthew Wright ended up "doinking" in a 31-yard field goal to seal it. It wasn’t pretty. It was ugly, gritty, and classic AFC West football.
What most people get wrong about nfl picks week 14 2024 regarding the Chiefs is assuming they’ll blow teams out. They don’t. They play to the level of their competition and find a way to win by two or three points. It’s annoying, but it’s consistent.
The Lions and Packers Rivalry
Thursday night gave us a glimpse of why Detroit is the real deal. They beat Green Bay 34-31.
- Jake Bates is a name you need to remember. That dude has ice in his veins.
- Detroit moved to 12-1 after this.
- The over (around 48) hit easily.
The NFC West Power Shift
Seattle and Arizona was a massive game for the division. The Seahawks were actually 3-point underdogs in some spots, which felt weird given how Kyler Murray had been struggling with consistency.
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Seattle walked away with a 30-18 win.
Zach Charbonnet was the hero here. With Kenneth Walker III sidelined, Charbonnet put the team on his back with 134 rushing yards. He looked like a man possessed. If you picked the Seahawks to pull the "upset," you recognized that Mike Macdonald’s defense had finally figured out how to contain Murray’s scrambling.
The Cardinals turned the ball over on back-to-back passes in the first half. You can't do that against a team like Seattle and expect to survive. Honestly, the 12-point margin felt even wider than the score suggested.
Those Ugly Wins No One Talks About
We have to mention the Saints and Giants. 14-11.
Yes, you read that right.
It was a game that set offensive football back about thirty years. Drew Lock started 0-for-11. It was painful to watch. But if you were looking at the under (41), you were laughing all the way to the bank. Sometimes, the best nfl picks aren't about who is better, but who is less terrible in a specific weather or stadium environment.
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The Saints' defense did just enough, blocking a field goal late to keep the Giants from forcing overtime. It was a "hold your breath" kind of win, the kind that makes you want to turn off the TV and go for a walk.
Quick Hits from the Rest of the Slate
- Vikings 42, Falcons 21: Sam Darnold threw five touchdowns. Yes, that Sam Darnold. Kirk Cousins' homecoming to Minnesota was a disaster.
- Steelers 27, Browns 14: Russell Wilson found his rhythm in the third quarter, and the Steelers' defense reminded everyone why they are the heart of that team. Jameis Winston threw two picks because, well, he’s Jameis.
- Dolphins 32, Jets 26 (OT): A Scorigami! This was the first 32-26 score in NFL history. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle finally looked like their 2023 selves again.
Actionable Tips for Future December Picks
If you're looking back at these results to help with future seasons, here is the reality. December football is about three things: health, weather, and divisional desperation.
Stop picking the "better" team blindly. Look at who is actually healthy on the offensive line. The Bills lost to the Rams because their defensive front couldn't get home. The Cardinals lost to the Seahawks because they couldn't stop the run without their starting interior linemen.
Also, pay attention to the kickers. Between Jake Bates, Matthew Wright, and the Giants' blocked attempt, Week 14 was decided by the guys in the small jerseys.
Start tracking "yards per play" instead of just final scores. The Vikings' 7.7 yards per play against Atlanta told a much bigger story than just a blowout—it showed a scheme mismatch that was destined to fail for the Falcons from the first whistle.
Next time you're looking at a Week 14 slate, ignore the early-season hype. Look at how teams played in the last three weeks. That’s where the real money is made.