Week 12 in the NFL is usually where the pretenders finally get exposed. By now, the "small sample size" excuse is dead. We know who these teams are, even if we don't always want to admit it. Honestly, this 2025 season has been a total circus, with the Kansas City Chiefs struggling to stay above .500 and the Los Angeles Rams suddenly looking like the best team in the NFC.
Picking games straight up sounds easy—just pick the winner, right? Wrong. In a year where Joe Flacco is still outplaying half the young starters and the Detroit Lions vary from juggernauts to "wait, what just happened?" every other Sunday, nothing is simple.
Let's break down the nfl picks week 12 straight up and figure out which favorites are actually safe and which ones are walking into a buzzsaw.
The Heavyweights: Can Anyone Stop the Rams and Eagles?
The Rams are currently sitting at the top of the NFL Power Rankings for a reason. Matthew Stafford is playing surgical football, and that defense? They just forced four interceptions against Sam Darnold and the Seahawks last week. When they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at SoFi Stadium this Sunday night, it feels like a mismatch.
Baker Mayfield is dealing with a nagging left shoulder injury, and the Bucs' ground game has vanished with Bucky Irving sidelined. The Rams have too much firepower with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
Straight Up Pick: Rams
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Then you have the Philadelphia Eagles heading into Dallas. Usually, this is the "Game of the Week," but the Cowboys have been an absolute rollercoaster. Philadelphia's defense, led by Jaelan Phillips, has been holding playoff contenders to single digits lately. The Cowboys did manage to beat the Eagles in their last meeting, but Philly’s defensive front is a "brick shithouse" right now. It's hard to see Dallas moving the ball consistently.
Straight Up Pick: Eagles
The Desperation Bracket: Chiefs vs. Colts
If you told me in August that the Kansas City Chiefs would be 5-5 entering Week 12, I’d have laughed. Yet, here we are. They are coming off a bye, which usually means Andy Reid has a master plan, but the Indianapolis Colts (8-2) are legitimately good.
The big question here is health. DeForest Buckner and Charvarius Ward are banged up for Indy. On the flip side, K.C. is desperate. There is a "championship DNA" factor people always talk about, but honestly, Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor have been a more efficient duo than Mahomes and his rotating cast of receivers this year.
Still, betting against Mahomes at Arrowhead when his back is against the wall is how you go broke.
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Straight Up Pick: Chiefs
Matchup Breakdown: Bengals at Patriots
New England is somehow 10-2. Drake Maye is playing like a seasoned vet, and they are hosting a Cincinnati team that is effectively a skeleton crew. No Joe Burrow (toe). No Ja'Marr Chase (suspension). No Trey Hendrickson (hip).
It’s kinda sad to watch the Bengals right now. Their defense is giving up points like they’re participating in a charity shootout.
Straight Up Pick: Patriots
Trap Games and Upset Alerts
The Chicago Bears are 7-3, which looks great on paper. But if you look closer, they’ve won five games on the final drive. That is not sustainable. Geoff Schwartz and other analysts have pointed out that Chicago is 25th in DVOA—meaning they are getting very lucky.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming to Soldier Field. Even with Mason Rudolph likely starting for an injured Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers’ defense is built to terrorize Caleb Williams. If the Steelers sack Williams three or more times, history says the Bears lose.
Straight Up Pick: Steelers
Other Quick Hits for Week 12:
- Lions over Giants: New York is statistically eliminated and can’t stop the run. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should have a field day.
- Seahawks over Titans: Tennessee is the worst team in the league. Sam Darnold needs a "get right" game, and this is it.
- Ravens over Jets: Baltimore is back home after a long road trip. The Jets are starting Tyrod Taylor now, but their run defense is a sieve. Lamar Jackson—even if he’s not 100%—is too much.
- Jaguars over Cardinals: This game will be ugly. Both teams find ways to lose, but Jacksonville’s roster is just slightly more talented, even without Brian Thomas Jr.
- Browns over Raiders: Las Vegas just fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly. The Browns’ defense, led by Myles Garrett, is still elite even if their offense is a mess.
Why These Picks Still Matter
When you're looking at nfl picks week 12 straight up, you have to ignore the "helmet scouting." Don't pick the Chiefs just because they have the Arrowhead logo. Look at the trenches.
The biggest misconception this week is that the 49ers are "back." They are 8-4, but they are incredibly beatable. They gave up 450 passing yards to Bryce Young last week. Bryce Young! If the Carolina Panthers can protect the ball, that Monday Night game might be closer than the double-digit spread suggests. However, for a straight-up pick, the Niners’ talent usually prevails at home.
Straight Up Pick: 49ers
Actionable Strategy for Your Pool:
- Watch the Injury Reports: C.J. Stroud’s concussion status for the Texans vs. Bills game is everything. If he’s out, the Bills are a lock. If he’s in, Houston’s #1 ranked defense makes that an upset possibility.
- Trust the DVOA: Teams like the Bears are overvalued. Fade teams that rely on "luck" or late-game heroics.
- Home Field is Dying: In 2025, home-field advantage has been less impactful than ever. Don't give the home team the "automatic" 3-point edge in your head.
The playoff picture is tightening. Every game listed here has massive implications for the wild card race in both conferences. If you want to stay ahead in your pick'em league, start by questioning the "obvious" favorites who are nursing key injuries.
To maximize your success this week, verify the final active status of Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson before lock-in, as any late-week downgrade fundamentally shifts the win probability for the Rams and Ravens. Focus on the turnover margin; teams like the Vikings and Raiders are currently hemorrhaging possessions, making them high-risk picks regardless of the opponent's talent level.