Look, we’ve all been there. You stare at the Week 11 slate, and it feels like a layup. Then Sunday afternoon hits, a backup quarterback in Cleveland starts looking like Joe Montana, and your survivor pool entry goes up in smoke. Week 11 is traditionally where the "pretenders" start to hit the wall and the "contenders" find their second gear.
Honestly, if you're looking for nfl picks week 11 straight up, you have to stop betting on helmet logos and start betting on the trenches. By mid-November, everyone is banged up. The teams that win are the ones that can still run the ball when it’s 38 degrees and raining.
This year's Week 11 is especially chaotic. We’ve got a massive divisional showdown in the AFC North, a weird international hangover for the Dolphins, and several "trap games" that look like lopsided blowouts on paper but could end up being nail-biters. Let's break down who is actually going to walk off the field with a "W" and why.
The Big Ones: AFC Heavyweights and Divisional Grudges
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
This is the game that makes people lose their minds. Baltimore is rolling with Lamar Jackson looking like an MVP lock again. He’s been surgical. But the Browns? They have this weird, annoying habit of playing the Ravens tougher than anyone else in the league.
Cleveland’s defense, led by Myles Garrett, is built to contain mobile quarterbacks. However, the Browns’ offense has been a literal disaster. They can’t protect whoever is under center, and against a Ravens front that is starting to find its rhythm, that’s a recipe for a long afternoon.
The Pick: Ravens win, but it’s uglier than the box score suggests. Cleveland’s defense keeps it close for three quarters before Lamar breaks a 40-yarder to seal it.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Never, and I mean never, bet against Andy Reid coming off a bye. The man is a wizard with two weeks to prepare. The Chiefs haven't looked "perfect" this season—Patrick Mahomes has had some uncharacteristic picks—but they find ways to win.
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Denver, on the other hand, has been the surprise of the AFC. Bo Nix is playing much better than the "bust" labels people gave him in September. Their defense is legit. They hit hard, they cover well, and they’re at home. But is Bo Nix ready to outduel Mahomes in a late-season divisional game? Probably not.
The Pick: Chiefs. It's boring, but it's the right move. Denver keeps it within a touchdown, but Mahomes does Mahomes things in the fourth quarter.
The "Trap" Games You Should Worry About
Green Bay Packers at New York Giants
On paper? This is a slaughter. Jordan Love and the Packers are high-flying, while the Giants are... well, they're the Giants. They're starting Jameis Winston now because of injuries, and while Jameis is fun, he's a turnover machine.
But here is the thing: MetLife Stadium in November is a mess. If the wind starts swirling and the Packers get cute with the deep ball, things get weird. The Giants' defensive front is actually decent. If they can get to Love early, this could be one of those "how did this happen?" games.
The Pick: Packers. I’m not bold enough to pick the Giants, but don't be shocked if Green Bay only wins by three.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Houston is the new darling of the NFL. C.J. Stroud is the real deal. But the Titans are coming off a bye and playing at home. Divisional road games in the NFL are never as easy as the records make them look.
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Tennessee has been terrible at protecting the ball, but if they can just commit to the run and keep Stroud off the field, they can hang around. That said, the Texans' defense has been surprisingly opportunistic.
The Pick: Texans. Stroud is too composed to let a struggling Titans team derail their playoff seeding.
Sunday Night Drama: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles
This is arguably the game of the week. Two of the best rosters in the NFC. Two of the best offensive lines in football. It’s a mirror-match in a lot of ways.
The Eagles have been a bit of a roller coaster. When Saquon Barkley is cooking, they look unbeatable. When Jalen Hurts starts holding the ball too long, they stall. The Lions, meanwhile, are just a buzzsaw. They’re physical, they’re loud, and Dan Campbell has them playing like every down is the Super Bowl.
The Pick: Eagles. Home-field advantage at the Linc in a primetime game is a real thing. The crowd will be the 12th man here.
Full Week 11 Straight Up Predictions
Instead of a fancy table, let's just run through the rest of the slate.
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- New England Patriots over New York Jets: The Jets have basically checked out. New England is playing for pride and looks much more disciplined under their new regime.
- Miami Dolphins over Washington Commanders: This game is in Madrid, Spain. Travel messes with everyone, but the Dolphins' speed is a nightmare on grass. Without Terry McLaurin (who is dealing with a quad issue), Washington lacks the firepower to keep up.
- Buffalo Bills over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Allen at home in November. Need I say more? Tampa is scrappy, but they don't have the secondary to stop Buffalo's vertical game.
- Jacksonville Jaguars over Los Angeles Chargers: My upset of the week. The Chargers are traveling across the country for an early kickoff. Trevor Lawrence usually plays his best ball when everyone has given up on him.
- Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams is seeing ghosts lately. The Vikings' blitz packages under Brian Flores are going to be a nightmare for a rookie quarterback.
- Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers: Carolina is improved, but Atlanta has too many weapons. Bijan Robinson should have a career day here.
- San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals: The Niners are getting healthy at the right time. Christian McCaffrey is back to being a cheat code.
- Los Angeles Rams over Seattle Seahawks: Matthew Stafford in a divisional game is usually money. Seattle’s defense has been leaky against the run, and Kyren Williams will exploit that.
- Dallas Cowboys over Las Vegas Raiders (Monday Night): The Raiders are a mess. Dallas might be struggling, but they are still tiers above Vegas in terms of pure talent.
What Most People Get Wrong About Straight Up Picks
The biggest mistake people make with nfl picks week 11 straight up is ignoring the "Body Blow" effect.
Teams that played physical, overtime games the week before almost always underperform the following week. For example, look at the Lions. They’ve been in wars lately. If they look a step slow against the Eagles, that’s why.
Also, watch the weather reports. A "better" team on turf can become a "mediocre" team on a muddy, grass field in a division rival's stadium.
Actionable Strategy for Your Picks
- Check the Thursday Injury Report: Don't lock in your picks on Tuesday. Wait to see if that "questionable" left tackle actually practices on Friday. If he's out, the whole game plan changes.
- Fade the Public on One Game: Usually, one heavy favorite loses every week in November. Identify which one feels "too easy" and consider why the underdog might actually have a shot.
- Trust the Home Dogs: In divisional matchups, home underdogs win straight up about 35% of the time. That’s a high enough clip to merit caution.
The best way to handle Week 11 is to stay flexible. The league is a week-to-week business, and what happened in October doesn't matter anymore. It's about who can survive the grind of November.
Review the final injury designations for the Dolphins-Commanders game in Madrid, as the international travel and early kickoff time (9:30 AM ET) significantly alter the typical performance baseline for both squads.