The divisional round is here. It’s the best weekend of the year for football fans, and honestly, the most stressful for anyone trying to predict a winner. We just watched a Wild Card weekend where the Chicago Bears clawed back from a 21-3 halftime deficit to stun the Packers, and the 49ers went into Philadelphia to knock off the defending champion Eagles.
Now the stakes are higher. The rest advantage is real, but so is the rust factor for those top seeds who haven't hit anyone in two weeks.
Predicting nfl picks this week straight up requires looking past the glossy season records. You’ve got to look at the injuries to guys like Fred Warner and the absolute tear Josh Allen is on right now. Denver and Seattle are sitting pretty at home, but in the playoffs, being the "better team" on paper doesn't always translate to a win when the clock hits zero.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: The Allen Factor vs. Mile High Magic
This is the one everyone is circling. The Bills are fresh off a 27-24 nail-biter against Jacksonville. Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed, carrying the league’s most dangerous postseason resume into the thin air of Denver. He has more offensive scores per game in the playoffs than any quarterback this millennium. That’s a wild stat.
Denver, though, is 8-1 at home this season. Bo Nix has been incredibly efficient, and that defense under Vance Joseph is designed to bait quarterbacks into hero-ball mistakes. The Broncos are 1.5-point favorites, which basically means Vegas thinks this is a toss-up on a neutral field.
The Bills are dealing with a banged-up defense. Terrel Bernard and Damar Hamlin are out. If Denver can run the ball and keep Allen on the sideline, they win. But can they? Honestly, stopping Allen in January is like trying to stop a freight train with a hula hoop. He’s 5-0 in his last five Wild Card games and has no Patrick Mahomes in his way this year.
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The Pick: Buffalo Bills
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: A Rivalry Renewed
Seattle is the biggest favorite of the weekend at -7. It makes sense. They are the No. 1 seed, they have the No. 1 scoring defense, and Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his life. When Darnold isn't pressured, he leads the league in yards per attempt.
The problem for San Francisco? They can’t get pressure. With Nick Bosa gone and Fred Warner limited by an ankle injury, the Niners’ pass rush has fallen off a cliff. They had the lowest pressure rate of any team during Wild Card weekend.
However, the 49ers just beat the Eagles on the road. Brock Purdy is 11th in passing efficiency when he isn't blitzed. If Mike Macdonald decides to play it safe and not send extra rushers, Purdy will pick them apart. Seattle’s defense is the best in the league when they do blitz, but they only do it about 23% of the time.
If Seattle dials up the heat, they cruise. If they sit back, the "Faithful" might actually have something to scream about in Lumen Field. But Sam Darnold at home with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a different beast.
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The Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans at New England Patriots: The Battle of the Disciplined
Nobody expected the Texans to be here after they dismantled the Steelers 30-6. C.J. Stroud looks like a ten-year veteran. But the Patriots are a nightmare matchup for young quarterbacks. They are 7-1 all-time at home against Houston.
The Texans’ biggest weakness is their offensive line. They rank dead last in run block win rate. New England’s front seven is disciplined, heavy, and mean. They held the Chargers to just three points last week. Three!
Houston has the edge in explosive plays with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, but New England controls the clock. It won’t be pretty. It’ll be a 16-13 kind of game that frustrates everyone watching.
The Pick: New England Patriots
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Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: The Cinderella Story
The Bears shouldn’t be here. They were down by 18 points to Green Bay and decided to score 25 points in the fourth quarter. It was the kind of win that changes a franchise’s DNA. Now they host the Rams, who are actually the only road favorites this weekend at -3.5.
The Rams are veteran-led. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have been in these buildings before. But Chicago is a different place in January. The home team has won the last five matchups between these two.
Chicago's defense is opportunistic, but they are missing C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka due to concussions. That’s a massive hole in the secondary. Stafford is going to see that and exploit it. The Bears’ magic probably runs out here, even if Soldier Field is shaking.
The Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Tactical Next Steps for Your Weekend Strategy
- Monitor the Fred Warner News: If the All-Pro linebacker is a "no-go" or severely limited for the 49ers, the Seattle moneyline becomes one of the safest bets of the weekend.
- Watch the Weather in Denver: High winds at Mile High can neutralize the deep passing game. If it’s gusty, the Bills’ advantage with Josh Allen’s arm shrinks, favoring Denver’s ground attack.
- Check the Patriots' O-Line: With Morgan Moses and Thayer Munford Jr. missing practice, the Patriots' ability to protect their quarterback is in question. If they can't start both tackles, Houston's pass rushers like Will Anderson could wreck the game plan.
Trust the home-field advantage for the top seeds, but don't sleep on Josh Allen's ability to defy logic in the postseason.