If you’re looking at the NFL picks & predictions landscape right now, it’s a total mess. Honestly, the Divisional Round usually separates the contenders from the frauds, but 2026 is hitting different. We just watched the Seattle Seahawks absolutely dismantle the San Francisco 49ers 41-6. It wasn't even a game. It was a statement. Now, as we head into the Sunday slate of the Divisional Round, everyone is scrambling to figure out if the favorites can actually hold serve or if the "underdog bark" we heard in the Wild Card round is going to turn into a full-blown roar.
Betting on the NFL in January isn't just about who has the better quarterback. It's about who can survive a "snow globe" in Chicago or a literal ice box in Foxborough. You've got the Houston Texans heading into a New England winter and the Los Angeles Rams trying to handle the Windy City. It's chaotic.
NFL Picks & Predictions: The Sunday Slate Breakdown
The biggest thing people miss when making their NFL picks & predictions is the atmospheric variable. We aren't in a dome in Atlanta anymore. Sunday, January 18, 2026, features two matchups that are as much about the elements as they are about the X’s and O’s.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
New England is currently sitting as a 3.5-point favorite. That line moved. It was 3.0, but then the news broke: Nico Collins is out with a concussion. That is a massive blow for C.J. Stroud. Losing your primary vertical threat when you’re heading into a game where it’s expected to snow 1-3 inches? That’s a nightmare scenario for a dome team like Houston.
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The Patriots aren't exactly world-beaters. They’re 1-6 ATS (Against The Spread) over their last seven games when they have a rest advantage. Think about that. Even with the extra time to scheme, they’ve been failing to cover. But the weather in Foxborough is a Great Equalizer. If you're looking for a low-scoring affair, the under is tempting here. The field is going to be slippery, and the visibility will be garbage.
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
This is the game everyone is talking about. The Rams are 4-point favorites on the road. Why? Because Matthew Stafford is still Matthew Stafford. But there’s a catch. Stafford has a history of struggling when the mercury drops. We’re looking at single-digit wind chills at Soldier Field. Winds are gusting up to 30 mph.
Chicago’s offense, led by Caleb Williams, has been surprisingly efficient lately. They actually have the fourth-best rushing offense in the league right now. In a game where the wind might literally blow the ball out of a kicker's path, having a ground game is everything. The over/under is set at 48.5, which feels high. If I'm making NFL picks & predictions for this one, I’m looking hard at the Bears covering that +4. Home teams have won the last five meetings between these two franchises.
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The Super Bowl 60 Odds Shift
While we focus on this weekend, the futures market is vibrating. The Seahawks are the undisputed favorites right now at +155. They look terrifying. Their defense is giving off 2013 "Legion of Boom" vibes, and Sam Darnold—yeah, you heard that right—is actually playing composed football.
But look at the Denver Broncos. They’re at +1000, and their odds actually got worse even though they’re the top seed in the AFC. Why? Bo Nix. The kid broke his ankle in the overtime win against Buffalo. Now it’s Jarrett Stidham’s team. Taking a backup into a deep playoff run is a tall order, even with Vance Joseph’s defense playing out of their minds.
What the "Sharps" are Saying
Professional bettors usually ignore the hype and look at the numbers. Right now, the "key number" is 4. In the Rams-Bears game, that 4-point spread is a "Bermuda Triangle." Since the NFL moved the PAT back in 2015, 4-point favorites win 58% of the time but cover only 45% of the time.
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Essentially, the favorite wins a close one, but the underdog takes the cash.
- Texans (+3.5) vs. Patriots: The loss of Nico Collins is huge, but New England’s struggle to cover with a rest advantage is a red flag.
- Bears (+4) vs. Rams: The weather is the 12th man here. Expect a sloppy, grind-it-out game where the points matter.
- Super Bowl Longshot: Keep an eye on the Houston Texans if they can somehow survive Foxborough. At +750, they have the talent, but the road is brutal.
Actionable Insights for Your Betting Card
Don't just follow the public money. If you're finalizing your NFL picks & predictions for the remainder of the 2026 playoffs, keep these three rules in mind:
- Check the Wind, Not Just the Snow: Snow is pretty, but wind ruins passing games. If gusts are over 20 mph, lean toward the team with the better rushing EPA (Expected Points Added).
- Fade the "Rest" Narrative: Teams coming off a bye or long rest (like New England) often start slow. Look for the "rust vs. rest" factor in the first half.
- Monitor the Injury Report Until Kickoff: With players like Nico Collins out, the ripple effect on secondary options is massive. Check who is actually active 90 minutes before kickoff.
The playoffs are a different beast. Logic often goes out the window when the wind chill hits zero and the stakes are this high. Stick to the data, watch the weather, and don't be afraid to take the points in a "snow globe" game.