Week 7 is usually when the "imposter" teams finally start to crumble. We've seen it a million times. A team starts 4-2 or 5-1, everyone buys the hype, and then the October reality check hits like a ton of bricks. This year, the slate is a total minefield. We've got a London game that’ll have everyone drinking coffee at 9:30 a.m. ET, a massive double-header on Monday night, and a couple of divisional matchups that feel more like playground fights than professional football games.
People get obsessed with "due" teams. They think because a team lost three in a row, they have to win. Honestly? That's how you lose your shirt. The nfl picks predictions week 7 market is leaning heavily on some favorites that look shaky, especially with the injury bug currently devouring some of the league's top rosters.
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The London Fog: Rams vs. Jaguars
Jacksonville is basically the unofficial home team of the UK at this point. They’re facing a Los Angeles Rams team that is 4-2 but incredibly banged up. Puka Nacua is officially out with that ankle issue, which puts an enormous amount of pressure on Cooper Kupp to carry the entire passing game.
The Jaguars are also 4-2, which is honestly a surprise to some, but they’ve found a rhythm. The spread is Rams -3. Most people see the Rams and think "playoff pedigree," but traveling to London is a nightmare for West Coast teams. The jet lag alone is a factor.
I’m taking the Jaguars (+3) to cover and potentially win this outright. Trevor Lawrence has played some of his best ball at Wembley, and without Nacua, the Rams' offense lacks that explosive second gear needed to pull away in a weird, neutral-site environment.
Why the Commanders Might Shock Dallas
The Dallas Cowboys are 6-0 at home this season. Dak Prescott looks like an MVP candidate when he’s playing under the lights at AT&T Stadium. So, naturally, the world is siding with Dallas. But look closer.
Washington is 3-2 and coming in with a chip on their shoulder. Jayden Daniels is playing like he's been in the league for a decade, not five minutes. The Cowboys are missing Trevon Diggs (concussion), which is a massive blow to a secondary that’s already been prone to giving up the deep ball.
The line is Commanders -2.5. It feels like a trap. Usually, you’d expect Dallas to be the favorite at home, but the bookies are clearly spooked by Washington’s offensive efficiency. Terry McLaurin is out with a quad injury, which sucks for Jayden, but the Commanders' run game is versatile enough to keep the Cowboys' pass rush honest.
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I’m calling the upset here. Commanders 31, Cowboys 28.
Monday Night Chaos: Bucs, Lions, and the Seahawks
We have a double-header. Two games. Pure madness.
First, you have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into the Detroit Lions' den. Baker Mayfield has the Bucs at 5-1 and sitting at the #1 spot in many power rankings. But their receiving corps is a hospital ward. Chris Godwin is out. Mike Evans is a game-time decision. Emeka Egbuka is likely out.
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The Lions are coming off a stinging loss to the Chiefs. Dan Campbell doesn't take losing well. When the Lions are angry, they run the ball down your throat. Detroit is a 5.5-point favorite. Tampa’s defense is solid, but if Mayfield is throwing to third-stringers, they won't keep up with Jared Goff's efficiency at home.
Then, there’s the late game: Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is 4-2 but weirdly bad at home (1-2 so far). The Texans are streaking, winning two in a row. C.J. Stroud vs. Mike Macdonald’s defense is the chess match of the week.
- Detroit -5.5 over Tampa Bay.
- Houston (+3) over Seattle. The Texans' defense is playing at an elite level right now, and Sam Darnold has shown a tendency to cough up the ball late in games when he's under pressure.
The "Stay Away" Games
Sometimes the best pick is no pick. Seriously.
Take the Dolphins vs. Browns. It’s expected to be 40 degrees with rain and wind. Both teams are 1-5. It’s going to be an ugly, sluggish game that probably ends 13-10. The over/under is 35.5, which is hilariously low for the modern NFL. Unless you enjoy watching punts, just skip this one.
Same goes for the Raiders at Chiefs. Kansas City is an 11.5-point favorite. That is a massive spread for a Chiefs team that hasn't exactly been blowing people out. They win, sure, but they don't always cover. Las Vegas is a mess, but divisional games are usually grittier than the records suggest.
Strategic Moves for Your Week 7
If you're looking at your survivor pool or just trying to navigate your Friday afternoon office debates, keep these reality checks in mind:
- Check the Weather: Especially for that Cleveland game. Wind over 15 mph kills the deep passing game and makes field goals a total coin flip.
- Monitor the QB Room in Minnesota: With J.J. McCarthy questionable, Carson Wentz is likely getting the start against the Eagles. That changes the entire dynamic of the Vikings' offense.
- Trust the "Angry" Team: The Lions and 49ers are both coming off losses they feel they shouldn't have had. Teams with that level of talent rarely drop two in a row in October.
- Watch the "West to East" Travel: The Rams going to London and the Falcons going to Santa Clara are the travel stories to watch.
The nfl picks predictions week 7 landscape is defined by who can survive the injuries. Right now, depth is more important than star power. Look for the teams with the better offensive lines and the ability to run the ball when their star WRs are on the trainer's table.
Go through the injury reports one last time on Sunday morning. Look for "Active" status on Josh Jacobs and Mike Evans. If they're out, the lines will shift, and the value might vanish before you can click "submit." Stick to the data, ignore the talking heads who scream about "momentum," and remember that in the NFL, the most obvious result is usually the one that doesn't happen.