The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is where the pretenders finally get sent home. Last weekend was pure chaos—Matthew Stafford surviving a dogfight in Charlotte, Caleb Williams proving he's actually a "grizzled veteran" disguised as a rookie, and the Texans absolutely dismantling the Steelers on a Monday night. Now we’re down to the elite eight.
If you’re looking for nfl picks for this weekend, you’ve probably noticed the lines are tight. Bookmakers are daring you to bet against the home teams. But honestly? This might be the year the road teams make a serious statement. Between the thin air in Denver and the freezing lake-front winds in Chicago, the elements are going to be just as much of a factor as the x's and o's.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: The High-Altitude Trap
Everyone wants to talk about the Denver defense. And yeah, they’re terrifying. They had the league’s second-highest pressure rate this year ($40.7%$), and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has turned Bo Nix into a hyper-efficient point guard for that offense. But there’s a massive "if" here.
Josh Allen is currently playing like a man possessed. In the Wild Card win over Jacksonville, Allen was 16-of-17 on quick passes. That is basically a death sentence for a blitz-heavy team like Denver. If Denver brings the house, Allen is going to dink and dunk them to death. If they drop back, he’ll scramble for 15 yards.
Denver is a 1.5-point favorite, but they’ve squeaked out 11 one-score wins this year. That screams "regression candidate." Buffalo’s run defense is shaky (they rank 29th in efficiency), so expect a lot of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins. But in a game that comes down to who has the ball last? I’m taking the guy wearing number 17.
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The Pick: Bills (+1.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: The Rivalry That Never Ends
Let’s be real: Brock Purdy looked human against Philadelphia’s blitz last week. He completed exactly one pass on seven attempts when the Eagles brought extra pressure. Now he has to go into Lumen Field, where the 12th Man makes communication a nightmare.
Seattle is a massive 7.5-point favorite. That feels like a lot for a divisional game, but look at the injury report. The Niners are likely without Fred Warner and Nick Bosa is gone. Without that pass rush, Sam Darnold—who has been surprisingly elite when he has a clean pocket—is going to have all day to find Jaxon Smith-Njigba and DK Metcalf.
Seattle has won seven straight. They are the NFC's No. 1 seed for a reason. San Francisco is gritty, and Kyle Shanahan is a wizard, but the talent gap created by those defensive injuries is just too wide right now.
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The Pick: Seahawks (-7.5)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Stroud’s Toughest Test
Houston looked like a juggernaut against Pittsburgh, but let’s look at the context. C.J. Stroud was shaky for three quarters until the defense started scoring touchdowns for him. Now he’s heading into Foxborough to face a Patriots team that just suffocated the Chargers, allowing only 3 points.
The Patriots are 7-1 all-time at home against Houston. Drake Maye is 1-0 in the playoffs and playing with house money. The big concern for Houston is Nico Collins’ health. If he’s not 100%, the Patriots’ secondary is going to bracket Tank Dell and dare Houston to win on the ground.
New England is a 3-point favorite. It’s a short spread for a team that feels much more "complete" than the Texans right now. Houston’s 10-game win streak is incredible, but it likely ends here in the cold.
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The Pick: Patriots (-3)
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: The Caleb Williams Show
This is the game everyone is circling. The Rams are 3.5-point road favorites, which feels like a slap in the face to a Chicago team that just beat Green Bay.
It’s going to be about 15 degrees at Soldier Field. Matthew Stafford has played in the cold before, sure, but the Rams are an indoor team at heart. Meanwhile, the Bears’ defense is creating turnovers at an "unprecedented" rate lately. If Caleb Williams can just keep the ball out of harm's way—something he struggled with during his 40% completion rate game against the Packers—the Bears have a real shot.
Bettors are hammering the Bears +3.5. Usually, when the public is that heavy on an underdog, it makes me nervous. But the Rams looked vulnerable against Carolina. They bend, they survive, but eventually, they’re going to break.
The Pick: Bears (+3.5) and the Over (51)
Essential Action Steps for Your Weekend Wagers
If you're locking in your nfl picks for this weekend, don't just follow the "expert" consensus. Keep these specific factors in mind before you hit the "place bet" button:
- Watch the Weather in Chicago: If the wind kicks up over 15 mph, the Under becomes the play of the weekend regardless of how "clutch" Caleb Williams is.
- Monitor the 49ers' Injury Report: If Fred Warner is a surprise active, that 7.5-point spread for Seattle becomes way too high.
- Fade the "Short Week" Texans: Houston played Monday night and has to travel to New England. Historically, teams on a short week in the divisional round struggle significantly against rested opponents.
- Target Quick-Pass Props: For the Bills-Broncos game, look at the Over on Josh Allen’s completions. Denver’s pressure will force him to get rid of the ball fast, leading to high-volume, low-yardage completions.