NFL betting in Week 4 is honestly where things get weird. By now, you've seen three games from every team. You think you know who’s good. You think you know who’s trash. But the "eye test" is a dangerous game when Vegas has already adjusted the lines to account for your recency bias.
Take the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers showdown. Both entered this week at 3-0, but the market was leaning heavily toward Philly. Why? Because the Eagles pulled off a 26-point second-half comeback against the Rams last week. It looked dominant, sure. But we’ve seen this movie before—Baker Mayfield has spent the last year essentially owning the Eagles' secondary.
Basically, Week 4 is the ultimate "trap" week. Here is the breakdown of the most critical NFL picks against the spread week 4 as we head into the slate.
The Games Everyone is Getting Wrong
Sometimes the biggest line on the board is the safest, and sometimes it's a death trap.
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Saints at Bills (-15.5)
This is a massive number. The Buffalo Bills are 3-0 and haven't lost at home in forever. They are currently the only undefeated team left in the AFC. But 15.5 points? In the NFL, that’s an eternity. The Saints are winless, yeah, but Buffalo's defense has been looking a bit leaky lately, especially on the ground. They gave up 189 rushing yards to a mediocre rushing attack last week. If the Saints can just keep it on the ground and chew clock, a backdoor cover is very much in play.
Ravens (-2.5) at Chiefs
It feels gross to bet against Patrick Mahomes as a home underdog. It really does. But the Baltimore Ravens are desperate. They are 1-2 and their defense is currently ranked dead last in the league. You’d think that means Mahomes will feast, but Lamar Jackson is also leading an offense that puts up 37 points a game. The "Over" (48.5) feels like the smartest play here, but if you’re picking the spread, the Ravens need this more.
Neutral Sites and Jet Lag: Vikings vs. Steelers in Dublin
We’re going across the pond to Ireland for this one. The Minnesota Vikings opened as 2.5-point favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Neutral site games are notoriously hard to peg because the travel schedule ruins everything.
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The Vikings are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this year with a solid margin of victory. On the flip side, the Steelers are 1-2 ATS. Honestly, don't trust the Steelers' offense right now. Even with the change of scenery, Minnesota's consistency under Kevin O'Connell makes them the lean here.
Injury Reports That Actually Matter
You can't talk about NFL picks against the spread week 4 without looking at the training room. Some of these lines have moved 3 or 4 points just based on a Wednesday practice report.
- Arizona Cardinals: Losing James Conner to a season-ending injury is a massive blow. He was the heart of that run game. Without him, the Seattle Seahawks at +1.5 or even on the moneyline looks like a steal.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring. If he’s out, Baker Mayfield loses his most reliable "bail-out" target.
- Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin (quad) and Jayden Daniels (knee) are both banged up. If the Commanders are forced to go with a backup QB and no WR1, that -1.5 line against the Atlanta Falcons is going to flip fast.
The "I Can't Believe I'm Betting This" Section
Sometimes you have to hold your nose and place the bet.
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Panthers at Patriots (-5.5)
The Carolina Panthers just shut out the Falcons 30-0. People are starting to think they might be... okay? Don't fall for it. The New England Patriots are coming off a five-turnover disaster. Usually, Bill Belichick's successors at least know how to capitalize on a "get right" game at home. The line moved from -3.5 to -5.5 for a reason. Professionals are fading the Carolina hype.
Bengals at Broncos (-7.5)
The Denver Broncos under Sean Payton and Bo Nix are 1-2, but the underlying stats are surprisingly okay. Nix is completing 64% of his passes. Meanwhile, the Bengals are struggling to find any rhythm. A touchdown-plus spread is a lot, but Denver at Mile High is a different beast.
How to Handle Your Week 4 Betting Card
If you want to actually make money this weekend, stop looking at the standings. 0-3 teams often cover against 3-0 teams in Week 4 because the "bad" team is playing for their lives while the "good" team is feeling themselves a little too much.
Key Trends to Watch:
- Home Dogs: The Chiefs as home underdogs are historically a gold mine, regardless of how the Ravens' offense looks.
- The Over Trend: The Ravens and Colts are currently "Over" machines. If the total is under 50, it’s worth a look.
- Divisional Revenge: The Seahawks and Cardinals know each other too well. These games almost always stay within one score.
What to do next
If you're ready to lock in your NFL picks against the spread week 4, your first step should be checking the final injury report on Friday afternoon. Pay close attention to the Commanders' quarterback situation and Mike Evans' status in Tampa. If those stars are out, the value on the Falcons and Eagles increases significantly. After that, look for "stale" lines at smaller sportsbooks that haven't moved as fast as the majors like FanDuel or DraftKings.