Look, we’ve all been there. You're staring at your nfl pick sheet week 11, the coffee is cold, and you’re trying to figure out if a rookie quarterback playing in Spain is actually a good bet. It’s that point in the season where the "guaranteed" wins start feeling like traps. Honestly, Week 11 of the 2025 season is probably the weirdest one we've seen yet.
Between the first-ever regular season game in Madrid and the sheer volume of divisional rematches, your standard office pool is about to get wrecked. If you’re just circling the home teams and hoping for the best, you’ve already lost. We need to talk about what’s actually happening on the field, not just what the spreads say.
The Madrid Factor: Commanders vs. Dolphins
Everyone is talking about the Santiago Bernabéu. It’s cool, sure. But for your nfl pick sheet week 11, it’s a nightmare. The Washington Commanders are heading over there without Terry McLaurin, who’s dealing with a quad injury that just won't quit. Then you've got Jayden Daniels sidelined with that elbow issue.
Miami is favored by 2.5, but they’re coming off a massive emotional high after beating Buffalo 30-13. Are they going to sleepwalk through a game in Spain? Probably not, but the travel fatigue is real. Most people are picking the Dolphins because, well, it’s the Dolphins. But keep an eye on how Washington’s defense handles the atmosphere. If you're looking for an upset to gain ground in your league, this might be a "stay away" or a weirdly low-scoring grind.
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AFC North Chaos and the Rodgers Factor
The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting at 6-4, leading the division, but the vibes are... shaky. They just blew out the Bengals 32-21, which looks great on paper. But then you hear the news about Aaron Rodgers and a broken left wrist.
If Rodgers is out, you’re looking at Mason Rudolph. Yeah, that Mason Rudolph.
Quick Hits for the Sunday Slate:
- Bengals at Steelers: Pittsburgh opened as 5.5-point favorites. Without a healthy QB, that line is basically bait.
- Ravens at Browns: Baltimore is a 7.5-point favorite. Lamar usually eats the Browns for breakfast, but Cleveland’s defense is the one unit that consistently makes him look human.
- Texans at Titans: Houston is favored by 5.5. C.J. Stroud is back from his concussion, and honestly, the Titans are struggling to score points. This is probably the "safest" pick on the board, but in the NFL, "safe" is a dangerous word.
Why the NFC North is a Betting Nightmare
The Chicago Bears are currently leading the NFC North at 7-3. Let that sink in. Caleb Williams is finally looking like the guy everyone thought he’d be. They’re facing the Vikings, who are 2.5-point home favorites.
Here’s the thing: Minnesota's J.J. McCarthy is hitting a bit of a rookie wall. The Vikings committed eight false starts in a recent loss. Eight! If they can't handle the noise in their own stadium, how are they going to stop a Bears team that feels like they’re playing with house money? I’m leaning Bears here. It feels like a classic "changing of the guard" game.
The Heavy Hitters: Bills and Buccaneers
Buffalo is a 6.5-point favorite against Tampa Bay. Josh Allen is doing Josh Allen things—six touchdowns in one game, followed by two interceptions the next. It’s a rollercoaster.
Tampa is 6-4 but they’ve lost three of their last four. Their defense is giving up way too many big plays. If you’re filling out your nfl pick sheet week 11, Buffalo at home is hard to bet against, even if they're a bit inconsistent. The atmosphere at Highmark Stadium in mid-November is just different.
Watch the Injury Reports
You absolutely cannot ignore the medical tent this week.
- Brock Purdy (49ers): He’s dealing with a toe issue. If he’s not 100%, that 3.5-point spread against Arizona is way too high.
- Sam LaPorta (Lions): Missing him in the red zone is why Detroit struggled against Philadelphia.
- Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs): Kansas City’s run game is non-existent without him, which is why they struggled against Denver.
The Monday Night Finale: Cowboys vs. Raiders
Dallas is visiting Las Vegas as 3.5-point favorites. This is the first time Dak and the boys are playing a regular-season game in Vegas. The Raiders are 2-8 and look like they’re ready for the season to end.
However, Vegas covered an 8-point spread against Denver recently. They play tough at home, and the "Black Hole" will be buzzing for a primetime game against "America's Team." I'd still take Dallas to win, but don't be surprised if the Raiders keep it within a field goal.
Actionable Strategy for Your Week 11 Picks
Stop picking with your heart. Seriously.
First, look at the travel schedules. The teams going to Madrid are going to be gassed. Second, check the weather for the Buffalo and Pittsburgh games. November in the Northeast can turn a high-flying offense into a punting competition real fast.
Lastly, look at the turnover margins. Teams like the Rams (8-2) are winning because they aren't beating themselves. Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career right now, which is why they’re leading the NFC West. If you're stuck on a game, pick the quarterback who makes fewer mistakes.
Don't overthink the Madrid game too much—just realize it's a high-variance spot. Focus on the divisional matchups where the teams actually know each other. That's where the real value is on your nfl pick sheet week 11.
Go check the final active/inactive lists about 90 minutes before kickoff. One late scratch, like a starting left tackle or a lead cornerback, can swing a game more than any "expert" prediction ever will. Get those picks in early, but be ready to pivot.