Honestly, the middle of the NFL season is a total grind. You're staring at the slate for NFL pick em week 10, and suddenly everything you thought you knew about the league feels like a lie. By now, the "pretenders" have mostly been exposed, but the "contenders" are starting to get banged up, and the bye weeks are wreaking absolute havoc on roster depth.
Week 10 in 2025 is particularly nasty. We've got heavy hitters like the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Tennessee Titans all sitting at home on their couch. That's a lot of star power—and a lot of "easy" picks—removed from your pool. If you’re playing in a confidence pool, this is the week where the separation happens.
The International Wildcard: Falcons vs. Colts in Berlin
Let’s talk about the logistics for a second because they matter more than the X's and O's sometimes. The Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts are playing in Berlin. 9:30 AM ET kickoff.
Indy opened as a 6.5-point favorite, which feels high considering they just got thrashed by the Steelers. Anthony Richardson (or Joe Flacco, depending on the week's health) has been inconsistent, but the market still trusts the Colts' balanced attack over Atlanta’s defense.
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The thing about these Germany games? The grass is different. The travel is brutal. Usually, the team that settles in fastest wins, and the Colts have shown a bit more resilience in weird environments this year. If you're looking for a "safe-ish" mid-tier confidence pick, Indy is the play, but don't bet the house on a game where players are fighting jet lag.
Heavy Favorites and Massive Spreads
If you're just looking for straight-up winners to keep your streak alive, there are three games that stand out. But be careful—huge spreads in November are where dreams go to die.
- Denver Broncos over Las Vegas Raiders: Denver is on a six-game tear. Bo Nix has actually looked like a franchise guy lately, and the Raiders are... well, they're the Raiders. They’ve got Pete Carroll in the building now and Geno Smith under center, but it hasn't clicked. Denver’s defense at Mile High is arguably the best unit in football right now.
- Buffalo Bills over Miami Dolphins: This rivalry has felt one-sided lately. Buffalo is favored by nearly 10 points. Miami is struggling to find an identity, and with Jaelan Phillips traded away to the Eagles, their pass rush is toothless. Josh Allen usually eats against this scheme.
- Detroit Lions over Washington Commanders: This one changed fast. Jayden Daniels' elbow injury is a massive blow for DC. With Marcus Mariota likely stepping in, the Lions went from 3.5-point favorites to 8.5-point favorites. Detroit’s offensive line should bully a Washington front that’s missing Daron Payne (ejection/suspension issues).
The "Stay Away" Games That Will Ruin Your Week
You’ve got to be honest with yourself: some games are just coin flips.
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Take the New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns. It’s basically a "Toilet Bowl." Both teams were on a bye in Week 9, so they’re rested, but neither is good. The Jets are actually 1.5-point favorites, which feels like a prank. Cleveland’s defense is still elite (ranked 6th in DVOA), but their offense is non-existent. Unless you have to pick this game, maybe put it at the bottom of your confidence list.
Then there's the San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams. Usually, Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay, but the Rams are 4.5-point favorites here. Why? Because the Niners are a walking infirmary. Brock Purdy is still dealing with that nagging toe injury, and Davante Adams (now a Ram, weirdly enough) just had a monster game against his old division rivals. This feels like a changing of the guard in the NFC West, at least for this season.
Injury Report: The Names That Change Everything
You can't lock in your NFL pick em week 10 choices without looking at the training room. It's grim out there.
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| Player | Team | Status/Note |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | Out (Concussion) - Davis Mills starts |
| Garrett Wilson | Jets | Questionable (Knee) - Huge impact on total points |
| Dalton Kincaid | Bills | Out (Hamstring) - Look for Knox to step up |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | Out (Concussion) - Giants offense in trouble |
| J.K. Dobbins | Broncos | Limited (Foot) - Might see more Audric Estime |
The Stroud injury is the biggest needle-mover. The Texans were 2.5-point favorites against the Jaguars, but with Davis Mills starting, that line has shrunk to -1.5. The Jags are bad, but are they "lose to a backup quarterback" bad? Trevor Lawrence has been bottom-tier in EPA this year, so this might be the ugliest game on the slate.
Smart Strategies for Your Pool
If you're in a point spread pool, the Carolina Panthers at +5.5 against the New Orleans Saints is a trendy underdog pick. Carolina is coming off a shock win at Lambeau Field. They're 6-3 against the spread this year. Meanwhile, the Saints are starting Tyler Shough, who's been "fine" but hasn't faced a defense playing with as much confidence as Carolina is right now.
For a straight-up upset? Look at the New York Giants against the Chicago Bears. I know, I know. The Giants are starting a backup. But the Bears have a negative scoring margin despite their record. They’re the definition of "lucky," and luck usually runs out in November.
Actionable Steps for Week 10
- Check the Saturday Status: Wait until the final injury reports on Saturday afternoon before locking in the Texans or Jets games.
- Fade the Public on Miami: Everyone thinks the Bills will win by 30. They might, but divisional games are usually closer than the spread suggests.
- Low Confidence on the "Ugly" Games: Put your 1 and 2-point confidence markers on Browns/Jets and Jaguars/Texans. There is zero predictability there.
- Monitor the Weather in Green Bay: The Monday Night Football game between the Eagles and Packers at Lambeau could be a frozen one. If it's windy, Jalen Hurts' legs become more valuable than Jordan Love’s arm.
Make sure you've got your picks in before the Raiders and Broncos kick off on Thursday night. That Denver defense is the real deal—don't overthink it.