Football used to be simple. You ran the ball to "establish the run," and you threw it when you absolutely had to. That’s gone. Now, we live in an era where the quarterback is the sun, the moon, and the stars. If you aren't airing it out, you're basically dinosaur food.
But honestly? Something weird is happening. While everyone thinks the league is just throwing more and more every year, the data for the 2025 season shows a much more nuanced story. NFL pass attempts per game aren't just a number; they are the heartbeat of offensive philosophy.
Last year, the Arizona Cardinals actually led the league with about 38.2 pass attempts per game. Think about that. Nearly 40 times a game, a guy is dropping back, dodging 260-pound defensive ends, and trying to thread a needle. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens—led by the human cheat code Lamar Jackson—were down near 25. It’s a massive gap that tells you everything about how a team views "winning."
The 2025 Reality: Who’s Slinging and Who’s Sitting?
If you look at the stats from this past season, the hierarchy of the pass is pretty clear. Teams like the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys are addicted to the throw. Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott are essentially volume shooters in a basketball sense. They’re going to get their 35 to 40 attempts regardless of the score.
Look at the Los Angeles Rams. Matthew Stafford ended the 2025 regular season with 597 attempts. That’s roughly 35.1 per game. He threw for over 4,700 yards. When you have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, why would you ever hand the ball off? You wouldn't.
But then you have the outliers.
The Ravens and the Bills are doing something different. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are mobile enough that their "dropbacks" often turn into scrambles. Those don't count as pass attempts. So, while their total offensive impact is huge, their NFL pass attempts per game look surprisingly low compared to a traditional pocket passer like Bo Nix, who actually led many metrics with 36.0 attempts per game in Denver this year.
The Bo Nix Effect
It’s kinda wild to see a young guy like Bo Nix at the top of the list. Usually, coaches protect rookies. They give them "training wheels" by running the ball. Not Sean Payton. He let Nix rip it 612 times over 17 games. That’s a vote of confidence—or a sign that their run game was struggling.
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Why Pass Attempts Per Game is the "Lying" Stat
Numbers can be deceptive. You might see a team with 45 pass attempts and think, "Wow, they have a high-octane offense!"
Maybe. Or maybe they were just losing by 20 points in the fourth quarter.
In the NFL, there’s a thing called "Game Script." If you’re winning, you run the clock out. If you’re losing, you throw. This is why teams like the Chicago Bears or the New Orleans Saints often have high pass volume. Caleb Williams had to throw 568 times because the Bears were often playing from behind or in tight shootouts.
On the flip side, the New England Patriots—who had a massive 14-3 record—were only averaging about 29.5 attempts. When you’re winning, you don't need to risk interceptions. You just grind it out.
The Efficiency vs. Volume Debate
- High Volume: Typically 35+ attempts (Bengals, Rams, Cardinals).
- The Sweet Spot: 30-33 attempts (Lions, 49ers).
- Run-Heavy/Elite Defense: Under 28 attempts (Ravens, Seahawks).
The Detroit Lions are the perfect example of the "Sweet Spot." Jared Goff threw about 34 times a game. That’s enough to keep the defense honest but not so much that you become predictable. They have a balanced attack. That’s why they stayed deep in the playoffs.
Historical Context: How We Got Here
Go back to 1960. The average team threw the ball about 26 times a game. By 2019, that was up to 35.
It wasn't just a slow evolution; it was a rule-change revolution. The "Mel Blount Rule" in 1978 changed everything by limiting how much defenders could jam receivers. Then came the 2004 emphasis on illegal contact. Suddenly, you couldn't touch a receiver after five yards.
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What happened? Passing became safer.
If it's safer to throw for 8 yards than to run for 4, coaches are going to throw. We saw this peak with guys like Tom Brady and Drew Brees, who would routinely push 40+ attempts per game. In 2022, Brady averaged a staggering 43.1 attempts at age 45. That's a lot of work for a senior citizen.
The 2026 Shift: Are We Seeing a Plateau?
Actually, yes. Defenses are finally catching up.
For years, defenses played "Man" coverage and got burned. Now, the league has shifted toward "two-high safety" looks—basically telling the quarterback, "We aren't going to let you throw it deep. Go ahead and run."
Teams like the Bills and the Eagles have leaned into this. They’ve lowered their NFL pass attempts per game and started bullying people on the ground. When the defense gives you the run, you take it.
Even Patrick Mahomes has had to adjust. In 2023, he was at 37.3 attempts. In 2025? He dropped slightly to 35.9. The Chiefs realized that efficiency matters more than volume. They’d rather Mahomes throw 30 times and win than throw 50 times and lose.
Two-High Safety Shells
This defensive scheme is the "kryptonite" to the high-volume passing era. It forces quarterbacks to be patient. It turns 40-yard bombs into 4-yard checkdowns. When you see a team's pass attempts stay high but their yards per attempt (YPA) drop, it’s usually because they’re stuck dinking and dunking against a shell defense.
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What This Means for Your Fantasy Team
If you’re looking at these stats for a reason—like winning your league—volume is king. A pass attempt is an opportunity for points.
If a guy is averaging 38 attempts, like Joe Burrow (who was at 38.4 in 2024), he has a much higher "floor" than someone like Josh Allen who might only throw 27 times. Even if Allen is better, the sheer math of pass attempts usually wins out in PPR leagues.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
- Check the Spread: If a team is a 7-point underdog, expect their pass attempts to skyrocket in the second half.
- Weather Matters: Don't expect 40 attempts in a blizzard in Buffalo. Pass attempts usually drop by 15-20% in extreme wind or rain.
- Offensive Line Health: If a team loses their starting left tackle, the coach will often call more quick runs or screens to protect the QB, lowering the "true" downfield pass attempts.
- The "Play-Action" Factor: Teams like the 49ers use the run to set up the pass. Their attempts might be lower (33.7 for SF), but their impact is higher because the defense is confused.
The Future of the Forward Pass
We aren't going back to the 1970s. The NFL is a TV product, and people want to see points. Points come from passing.
However, we are seeing a "correction." The elite teams aren't necessarily the ones throwing the most. They are the ones who can throw 32 times with surgical precision.
The Arizona Cardinals leading the league in attempts (38.2) didn't lead to a Super Bowl. It led to a 3-14 record. Passing because you have to is a recipe for disaster. Passing because you want to—like the Rams or Lions—is the hallmark of a contender.
Keep an eye on the 2026 training camps. If more teams adopt the "heavy personnel" look, we might see league-wide NFL pass attempts per game dip for the first time in a decade. It’s a cat-and-mouse game that never ends.
Next Steps for You:
Compare your favorite team's pass-to-run ratio against the league average of 32 attempts. If they are significantly higher, check their "Red Zone" efficiency. Often, teams that throw too much between the 20s struggle to punch it in when the field shrinks. You can find these updated splits on sites like Pro Football Reference or TeamRankings to see if your team's volume is actually helping them win or just padding stats.