The regular season just wrapped up, and the race for the hardware is basically over. If you've been watching the Carolina Panthers this year, you already know. Tetairoa McMillan isn't just a good rookie; he's been the entire engine for a passing game that finally made Bryce Young look like a first-overall pick.
Now, the betting market has reacted. Violently.
Just a few weeks ago, you could still get decent value on this race. Not anymore. The latest nfl offensive rookie of the year odds show McMillan as a massive -1000 favorite at most books, including DraftKings. Some spots like BetMGM have him even steamed up to -1500. Honestly, at that price, the books are essentially saying the ceremony on February 5 is just a formality.
The McMillan Moonshot: How We Got Here
It's wild to think that McMillan opened around +1200 or +1500 depending on where you shopped. People were obsessed with the quarterbacks, like they always are. But McMillan just kept producing. He finished the regular season with 1,014 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
Hitting that 1,000-yard mark in Week 18 against the Buccaneers was the nail in the coffin.
The Panthers lost that game, but McMillan's four catches for 85 yards pushed him over the edge. He's the first rookie receiver to really dominate the narrative since Garrett Wilson or Ja'Marr Chase. What's even crazier is how he separated himself from the other big-name rookie wideout, Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka had a great year for the Giants, but McMillan became "the guy" in Carolina. He was basically the Mike Evans of Dave Canales' offense—a 6-foot-4 monster that Bryce Young could just chuck the ball toward when things got hairy.
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The Quarterbacks Who Almost Made It a Race
Usually, a quarterback wins this award if they breathe air and start 10 games. That's just the nature of the NFL. This year, we had two guys make a real late-season push that briefly made the nfl offensive rookie of the year odds interesting.
- Jaxson Dart (New York Giants): Dart spent the early part of the season sitting behind Russell Wilson. Then he dealt with a concussion. But when he played? He looked like a franchise cornerstone. He threw for over 2,000 yards and 13 scores in limited action. His odds jumped from +1775 to +900 after he dismantled the Cowboys in Week 18. If he had started all 17 games, we might be having a very different conversation right now.
- Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints): Shough was the ultimate "wait, what?" story of the year. He started as Spencer Rattler's backup. He ended up throwing for 2,125 yards. Before Week 18, he was actually closing in on McMillan. But a late interception in a loss to the Falcons pretty much killed his momentum. He's now sitting around +1400 or +2000.
It’s tough for a QB to win without the full season of stats. Only Dan Marino has ever really pulled off the "short season" OROY win, and that was a different era.
Why the Running Backs Faded
At the start of the year, everyone was talking about Ashton Jeanty. He was the preseason favorite at +250. The Raiders gave him the rock, but the efficiency just wasn't there consistently enough to fight off the "receiver era" we're in. Jeanty is currently a massive longshot at +20000.
Then there was TreVeyon Henderson in New England.
Henderson actually took over as the betting favorite around Week 15 after a monster game against the Bills. He was at +650 and looking like the chalk. Then, disaster. He got hurt in Week 16 against Baltimore. While he came back to rush for two scores in the finale against the Dolphins, the missed time allowed McMillan to sprint past him. Henderson is now tied with Dart at +900 in some books, but most have him drifting even further.
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The History and the Trends
If you're looking at the historical context of the nfl offensive rookie of the year odds, this year is a bit of an outlier. Usually, it's a two-horse race between a Top-5 pick QB and a flashy RB.
- Round Matters: 18 of the last 21 winners were first-rounders. McMillan fits that mold as the No. 8 overall pick.
- The WR Drought: For a long time, receivers couldn't win this. Then Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase broke the seal. McMillan is about to make it three receivers in the last five years.
- Volume is King: McMillan saw a 25.7% handle at some sportsbooks. People weren't just betting on him; they were betting heavy on him.
It’s also worth noting how much the "narrative" shifted. In October, Jaxson Dart was the favorite. In November, it was Egbuka. In mid-December, it was Henderson. This has been one of the most volatile OROY markets in recent memory, which is why McMillan’s current -1000 price feels so stagnant. The books are tired of getting burned by the lead changes.
What the "Closing Odds" Actually Tell Us
Closing odds are usually the most accurate predictor of the actual vote. Last year, Jayden Daniels was a heavy favorite and won easily. The year before, C.J. Stroud was a lock.
When a player hits -1000, the implied probability is over 90%.
Is there a world where Jaxson Dart steals this because he plays the most important position? Maybe in a weird year. But the Giants went 4-8 in Dart's starts. The Panthers, meanwhile, actually made the playoffs with McMillan as their primary weapon. Voters love a winner, and they love a 1,000-yard season.
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Practical Insights for the NFL Honors
If you’re still looking to play the nfl offensive rookie of the year odds, honestly, the value is gone. Betting $1,000 to win $100 on McMillan isn't exactly a "get rich quick" scheme. However, if your book offers "Winner Without McMillan" markets, that is where the real intrigue lies.
Jaxson Dart at +900 to be the "runner up" is a fascinating look because of how he finished the season. But for the main award? It's a wrap.
The NFL Honors will take place on February 5, 2026. Between now and then, you'll hear a lot of talk about whether a receiver deserves it over a quarterback who stabilized a franchise. Don't let the noise distract you. The stats are in the books. McMillan’s 1,014 yards and his role in revitalizing Bryce Young's career are the strongest arguments any candidate has this year.
Check your local sportsbooks for any final movement before they pull the boards entirely. Most major books like DraftKings and FanDuel typically close these markets once the "Awards Season" hype reaches its peak in late January, so if you're holding a McMillan +1500 ticket from August, you're sitting on a gold mine. For everyone else, it’s just a lesson in why early-season volume matters more than late-season hype.
To get ready for the official announcement, you should keep an eye on the AP All-Pro teams which usually drop shortly before the NFL Honors. If McMillan makes an All-Pro team or even just the All-Rookie team, it confirms the voter sentiment that has already moved these lines to where they are today. Stay tuned to the injury reports for any of the finalists as they head into the postseason, though for an individual regular-season award, those Week 1 through 18 numbers are already etched in stone.