The divisional round is finally here, and honestly, if you’re looking at the NFL odds for this weekend and thinking everything looks "standard," you’re probably missing the subtext. Saturday already gave us a massive shakeup. We watched the Seattle Seahawks absolutely dismantle the 49ers 41-6, while the Denver Broncos survived a 33-30 overtime heart-stopper against the Buffalo Bills.
But that was yesterday.
Today, Sunday, January 18, 2026, is where the real money is made—and where the most trap doors are hidden. We have two games left to determine the conference championship matchups. The markets have been moving all morning. If you haven't checked the board since Friday, you're betting on old news.
The Texans-Patriots Chess Match: Why the Spread is Moving
Let’s talk about the 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff in Foxborough. The New England Patriots opened as 3-point favorites, but that number has nudged up to Patriots -3.5 at most shops like FanDuel and Bet365.
Why? It’s the Nico Collins news.
The Texans' star receiver is officially out with a concussion. That is a massive blow for C.J. Stroud. When Collins isn't on the field, the Texans' explosive play rate drops significantly. New England’s defense, which just held the Chargers to 3 points in the Wild Card round, is licking its chops. Drake Maye has been efficient, sure, but this game is really about whether DeMeco Ryans can scheme up enough pressure to rattle the rookie.
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The total is sitting at a measly 40.5. That screams "ugly football."
Most casual bettors see a 3.5-point spread and jump on the favorite. But here’s the kicker: New England is a putrid 1-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games when they have a rest advantage. The Texans are coming off a Monday win, so they’re on a short week, but they’ve been "road warriors" all season.
Breaking Down the Sunday Slate
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -3.5
- Moneyline: Texans +149 / Patriots -179
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Rams -4.5
- Moneyline: Rams -200 / Bears +167
- Over/Under: 48.5
Caleb Williams vs. The Rams' Air Raid
The late game (6:30 p.m. ET) is the one everyone is circling for the "fun" factor. We’ve got the Rams traveling to Soldier Field to face the Bears. The NFL odds for this weekend initially had the Rams as 3.5-point favorites, but the public has pounded that line up to Rams -4.5.
It makes sense on paper. Matthew Stafford is leading the league's best passing offense. Chicago’s pass defense? It's ranked 22nd.
But wait.
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It’s January in Chicago. We’re looking at freezing temperatures and a decent chance of snow. Have you ever seen Stafford try to grip a frozen pigskin when the wind is whipping off Lake Michigan? It’s not always pretty.
The Bears have won five straight home games against the Rams. Caleb Williams has been "rising like a phoenix" in the second half of games lately, and that Chicago crowd is going to be feral. The total of 48.5 is the highest of the weekend, which feels risky given the weather forecast.
What the "Sharps" are Whispering
If you talk to professional bettors—the guys who do this for a living—they aren't looking at the spreads as much as the player props and team totals.
One name keeps coming up: Kyren Williams. The Bears' run defense is ranked 27th in the league, giving up over 134 yards per game. If the weather turns sour, the Rams are going to stop airing it out and start feeding Kyren. His "Anytime TD" odds are juice-heavy, but some books are offering +800 for 2+ touchdowns. That’s a flyer worth considering if you think the Rams control the clock.
On the flip side, people are fading Drake Maye’s passing yards. The Texans' defense allowed the fewest yards per game in the regular season. They just forced two turnovers against Aaron Rodgers last week. Betting Maye to go Under 219.5 passing yards feels like the "expert" move while everyone else is betting on his highlights.
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The Reality of Playoff Betting
Betting on the NFL in January isn't like betting in October. The margins are razor-thin.
Look at the Denver/Buffalo game from yesterday. The Bills were 1.5-point underdogs and lost by 3 in overtime. If you took the points, you pushed or lost depending on your book. That's the divisional round in a nutshell.
The home-field advantage for Seattle and Denver is already locked in for the next round. Seattle looked invincible. Denver looked vulnerable after Bo Nix went down with an ankle injury. If Jarrett Stidham has to start the AFC Championship game next week, the futures market for the Super Bowl is going to flip on its head tonight.
Actionable Steps for Sunday’s Games
If you’re planning to get some skin in the game before kickoff, don't just blindly follow the "favorite" trends.
- Monitor the Weather in Chicago: If the snow picks up, the Under 48.5 becomes the most attractive bet on the board.
- Shop the Lines: Don't settle for Patriots -3.5 if you can find a -3. Conversely, if you like the Texans, find a book giving you the full +4.
- Watch the Texans' Injury Report: Beyond Nico Collins, keep an eye on the offensive line. Stroud needs time to operate against the New England blitz.
- Consider the Teaser: A two-team teaser taking the Texans to +9.5 and the Bears to +10.5 covers the "key numbers" of 3, 7, and 10. It’s a safer way to play two home dogs in January weather.
The road to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara goes through Foxborough and Chicago today. By the time the clock hits zero tonight, we’ll know exactly who is left standing. Be smart, watch the line movement, and remember that in the playoffs, the "obvious" choice rarely is.