The MVP conversation is usually a predictable slog by January. We generally see the same faces—Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or whoever the latest "it" guy is—holding a slim lead while everyone else fights for scraps. But the NFL MVP race 2025 decided to throw the script in the trash. Honestly, if you told a bettor in August that Matthew Stafford and a rookie named Drake Maye would be the two names essentially "locking" the trophy away, they’d have called you crazy.
Stafford was sitting at +5000 odds when the season kicked off. Drake Maye? He was +6600, basically a long-shot thought for a Patriots team everyone expected to win maybe four games.
Now, here we are in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, and the sportsbooks are essentially calling it a two-man sprint.
The Stafford Renaissance vs. The Rookie Miracle
Matthew Stafford is 37 years old. In his 17th season, he finally put together the "perfect" resume for a veteran MVP. He threw for 46 total touchdowns and led the league in traditional passing yards and TD-to-INT ratio. It’s the kind of statistical dominance that makes old-school voters happy. Plus, there is the narrative. The guy has a Super Bowl ring, but he's never won an MVP. Voters love a "lifetime achievement" hook when the stats actually back it up.
But then there's Drake Maye.
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What Maye did in New England is basically unheard of. The Patriots went 3-14 last year. This year, under Maye’s leadership, they went 14-3 and grabbed the No. 2 seed. He didn’t just play well for a rookie; he led the NFL in EPA per play and completion percentage. He joined Tom Brady (2007) and Kurt Warner (2001) as the only players ever to lead the league in both completion percentage and yards per attempt in the same season. Both of those guys won the MVP.
The debate basically boils down to this: Do you value the raw volume of Stafford's 46 touchdowns, or the historic efficiency of a kid who turned a basement-dweller into a juggernaut?
Why Josh Allen Fell Out of the Running
People forget that Josh Allen actually won the 2024 MVP. He was the reigning king. He even opened the NFL MVP race 2025 as one of the favorites alongside Lamar Jackson. Allen was great again, don't get me wrong. But the "voter fatigue" is real.
Allen had a weird season where he struggled in a Week 6 loss to the Falcons, and suddenly the spotlight shifted to Mahomes. Then Mahomes' offensive line issues caught up to him. Then Joe Burrow—who won Comeback Player of the Year in 2024—put up monster numbers (4,918 yards and 43 TDs), but his Bengals missed the playoffs.
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In the NFL, if you aren't winning 11 or 12 games, you aren't winning MVP. That’s just the math. Since 2001, only Adrian Peterson has won the award on a team with fewer than 11 wins. That effectively killed the cases for Burrow and guys like C.J. Stroud.
The Case for the Underdogs
While Stafford is the current betting favorite at -140 (or even -450 at some books like FanDuel), the race isn't technically over until the votes are counted at the NFL Honors. There's a segment of the voting block that still looks at Saquon Barkley.
Barkley was the Offensive Player of the Year in 2024 and he's been just as dominant this season. But the reality is harsh for non-QBs. A quarterback has won every single MVP for the last 12 years. The last time a running back won was Peterson in 2012. Unless a guy breaks the all-time rushing record, it sort of feels like a "QB-only" trophy these days.
What Really Matters to Voters Now
If you’re trying to figure out who actually wins this thing, look at the Week 18 swing.
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Before the final week of the regular season, Drake Maye was the heavy favorite at -700. He looked like a lock. Then he went out and had a mediocre game against the Dolphins—only 191 yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Stafford went nuclear against the Cardinals, tossing four touchdowns.
That one Sunday flipped the entire market.
- Matthew Stafford: 46 TDs, First-Team All-Pro, the "Narrative" favorite.
- Drake Maye: Led 14-3 turnaround, efficiency king, Second-Team All-Pro.
The fact that Stafford earned the First-Team All-Pro nod over Maye is usually the "smoking gun." In the history of the AP MVP, it is extremely rare for a Second-Team player to beat out a First-Team player at the same position. It happened to Josh Allen last year, but that was a historically tight vote against Lamar Jackson.
What’s Next for the MVP Race?
The winner will be officially announced on February 5, 2026, at the NFL Honors. If Stafford wins, he becomes one of the oldest first-time winners ever. If Maye wins, he becomes the first rookie to take the trophy since Jim Brown in 1957.
Actionable Next Steps:
Keep an eye on the "All-Pro" voting margins that get released alongside the MVP. If Stafford won the First-Team All-Pro vote by a wide margin, the MVP is likely his. If you are a bettor, the value has mostly evaporated from Stafford at -450, but if you can find a book still hanging a plus-number on Maye, his historic efficiency "turnaround" story might still appeal to the more analytics-driven voters in the AP pool.
Check the final efficiency rankings for EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. If Maye finishes significantly ahead of Stafford in those categories, we might see one of the closest voting splits in the history of the award, much like the 21-vote difference that gave Josh Allen the trophy over Lamar Jackson just one year ago.