If you’ve spent any time arguing about football at a bar or on a grainy group chat, you know the deal. The NFL MVP is supposed to go to the most "valuable" player. But let’s be real. Over the last decade, "valuable" has basically become code for "the quarterback on a 13-win team who didn't throw too many picks."
Looking back at the nfl mvp last 10 years, it is wild to see how much the position has swallowed the award whole. We are living in an era where a running back has to basically break physics to even get a phone call, and wide receivers? Forget about it. They might as well be invisible when the ballots come out.
The Josh Allen Era and the 2024 Shocker
Most recently, the 2024 season (awarded in early 2025) gave us one of the biggest "wait, what?" moments in recent memory. Josh Allen finally took home the hardware, and honestly, it felt like a lifetime achievement award and a statistical anomaly wrapped into one.
Allen didn't even make First-Team All-Pro. Lamar Jackson did. Usually, that’s a death sentence for an MVP campaign. But Allen’s 2024 was different. He was the entire Buffalo offense. Despite the Bills trading away Stefon Diggs and basically asking Allen to win games with a "everyone eats" committee of receivers, he dragged them to a 13-3 record in games he started.
He threw for 3,731 yards and 28 scores, which are "fine" numbers. But the 12 rushing touchdowns? That’s where the value lived. He edged out Lamar in the closest vote since 2016, proving that sometimes the "vibe" of being indispensable outweighs the All-Pro roster.
A Decade of Total QB Dominance
Since 2015, the list of winners looks like a VIP lounge for signal-callers. If you aren't under center, you aren't invited.
- 2024: Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
- 2023: Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
- 2019: Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
- 2017: Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
- 2016: Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)
- 2015: Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
Notice something? It’s a clean sweep. Ten years, ten quarterbacks. You have to go back to 2012 to find Adrian Peterson standing there as the last non-QB to win it. He had to rush for 2,097 yards—nine yards shy of the all-time record—just to beat out Peyton Manning.
That tells you everything you need to know about the nfl mvp last 10 years.
Why the "Skill Players" are Getting Snubbed
You’ve got guys like Tyreek Hill or Christian McCaffrey putting up video game numbers, yet they can't sniff the trophy. Why? It's the dependency problem.
Think about it. If a wide receiver has 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns, his quarterback also has those 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns, plus whatever he threw to everyone else. Voters almost always default to the distributor. It’s kinda unfair, but that’s the logic.
Running backs have it even tougher. In the modern NFL, everyone uses a committee. Finding a "bell-cow" who stays healthy and touches the ball 350 times is like finding a unicorn. Even when Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry goes nuclear, they’re fighting against a league-wide narrative that says RBs are replaceable.
The Mahomes and Rodgers Standard
Between 2018 and 2022, the award was basically a private club for two guys. Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers accounted for four of the five trophies in that span.
Rodgers’ 2020 season was arguably the most efficient year of quarterbacking we’ve ever seen. 48 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Read that again. It’s stupid. He was 37 years old and playing like he had a cheat code.
Then you have Mahomes. In 2022, people thought he’d take a step back after Tyreek Hill left for Miami. Instead, he led the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41). He didn't just win the MVP; he broke the "curse" by winning the Super Bowl in the same year, something no MVP had done since Kurt Warner in 1999.
The Dual-Threat Revolution: Lamar’s World
Lamar Jackson changed the math. Before his 2019 win, people still looked at "running quarterbacks" with a bit of skepticism. Then he threw for 36 touchdowns and rushed for over 1,000 yards. He won that one unanimously.
His 2023 win was more about maturity. He wasn't just outrunning people; he was dissecting them from the pocket. It’s a trend that explains why guys like Jayden Daniels or Anthony Richardson are the future of the MVP conversation. If you can’t create with your legs when the play breaks down, you’re playing at a disadvantage in the eyes of the 50 voters.
👉 See also: Week 1 Defensive Rankings: Why Your Fantasy Draft Strategy Is Probably Wrong
What Most People Get Wrong About the Race
People think it’s a "Best Stats" award. It isn't. It’s a "Best Story on a Best Team" award.
If you put up 5,000 yards on a 7-10 team, you’re finishing 5th in voting at best. You need the wins. Usually, the MVP comes from a team with a top-2 seed in their conference. Matt Ryan in 2016 is the perfect example. He was incredibly efficient, but he also had the "narrative" of leading the league's highest-scoring offense to an 11-5 record and the 2-seed.
Actionable Insights for Future Seasons
If you’re looking at the nfl mvp last 10 years to predict who wins next, here’s what actually matters:
- The TD/INT Ratio: Voters have become obsessed with efficiency. If a QB throws 12+ interceptions, they are likely out of the running, no matter how many yards they have.
- The "Without Him" Test: Look at how the team performs when the star is out. This is why Josh Allen won in 2024; the roster around him looked "thin" on paper, making his individual contribution look massive.
- Prime-Time Moments: A bad game on Monday Night Football in December can kill a campaign. Just look at Brock Purdy in 2023—one four-interception game against the Ravens on Christmas virtually handed the trophy to Lamar.
- The Rushing Floor: In the modern era, having a QB who can add 500+ rushing yards is the "tiebreaker" that usually wins the vote.
The trend isn't slowing down. Unless a wide receiver goes for 2,100 yards or a defensive player records 25 sacks on a 15-win team, the MVP will continue to be a quarterback's world. It’s their league; we’re just watching them collect the trophies.
To stay ahead of the next race, watch for high-win teams where the quarterback accounts for more than 75% of the total offensive production. That’s where the value—and the hardware—usually lands.