It was the year of the arm. If you go back and look at any NFL mock drafts 2018 edition, you'll see a recurring theme: desperate teams reaching for the stars at the quarterback position. People were obsessed. We had five guys who were supposed to change the league forever, and honestly, looking back at it now, it's hilarious how much we missed the mark on who would actually be the "alpha" of the group.
The 2018 draft was a chaotic mess of projection and overthinking. Remember when Sam Darnold was the "safe" pick? Or when everyone thought Josh Allen was just a tall guy who couldn't hit the broad side of a barn? The experts were convinced. The fans were divided. And the Cleveland Browns held all the cards at number one, a spot they’d become unfortunately familiar with over the years.
The Mayfield Shock and the Logic That Failed
Almost every major NFL mock drafts 2018 board had Sam Darnold going to the Browns right up until the week of the draft. Then, the whispers started. Baker Mayfield, the Heisman winner with the walk-on chip on his shoulder, began rising. When John Dorsey actually turned in the card for Baker, it sent a shockwave through the AT&T Stadium.
Baker was short. He was loud. He was "undraftable" to the traditionalists who wanted a 6'4" statue in the pocket. But the analytics guys loved him. His completion percentage and efficiency at Oklahoma were off the charts. The irony? Baker did help turn the Browns around briefly, leading them to a playoff win over the Steelers, but he’s now a journeyman while the guy everyone laughed at—Josh Allen—is a perennial MVP candidate.
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Drafting is an inexact science. That’s an understatement. It’s basically throwing darts in a dark room while someone yells at you about hand size.
Why Josh Allen Was the Ultimate Mock Draft Divider
If you wanted to start a fight on NFL Twitter in April 2018, you just had to mention Josh Allen. The Wyoming product was the ultimate "looks like a quarterback" prospect. Huge frame. Rocket launcher for an arm. But the stats were... well, they were bad. He struggled with accuracy against Mountain West competition.
Most NFL mock drafts 2018 had him going in the top ten, but the "Draft Twitter" scouts hated it. They cited his low completion percentage as a fatal flaw. They were wrong. The Buffalo Bills saw something the spreadsheet-only crowd missed: elite physical traits and a work ethic that allowed him to completely rebuild his throwing mechanics. It's a rare outlier. Usually, if you're inaccurate in college, you stay inaccurate in the pros. Allen broke the mold.
He went 7th overall. The Cardinals traded up to 10th for Josh Rosen, who was "the most pro-ready" guy in the class. Rosen is now out of the league. Allen is a titan. That’s the draft for you.
The Lamar Jackson Slide: A Huge Oversight
Perhaps the most egregious error in the NFL mock drafts 2018 cycle was the consensus on Lamar Jackson. Despite winning the Heisman and putting up historic numbers at Louisville, some "experts" (looking at you, Bill Polian) suggested he should move to wide receiver. It was ridiculous then and looks even more absurd now.
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Lamar sat in the green room until the very last pick of the first round. The Baltimore Ravens traded back into the 32nd spot to grab him. Every other team passed on a future two-time MVP. Why? Because they were scared of his style. They didn't think a "running QB" could survive.
- Teams feared his longevity.
- Scouts questioned his ability to win from the pocket.
- The league was still stuck in a "pocket passer" mindset.
The Ravens stayed patient. They built an entire offensive system around his unique gravity, proving that if you fit the system to the player instead of forcing the player into a box, you win.
Beyond the Quarterbacks: The Hidden Gems and Busts
It wasn't all about the signal-callers. This draft gave us some of the best non-QB talent in a decade. Saquon Barkley went 2nd overall to the Giants, a pick that sparked a massive debate about the value of running backs. Saquon was a generational talent, a "gold jacket" guy from day one, but the Giants struggled to win games because they lacked the infrastructure around him.
Then you have the defensive monsters. Bradley Chubb went 5th to Denver. Quenton Nelson, a guard—yes, a guard—went 6th to the Colts and immediately became an All-Pro. Nelson proved that if a player is dominant enough, "positional value" doesn't matter. You just take the best football player.
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But for every Nelson, there’s a Mike Hughes or a Rashaad Penny—players who went in the first round but never quite lived up to the massive expectations set by those early spring mock drafts.
What We Learned from the 2018 Cycle
Analyzing NFL mock drafts 2018 years later teaches us that we overvalue "pro-readiness" and undervalue "ceiling." Josh Rosen was pro-ready but had a low ceiling. Josh Allen was a project with a ceiling through the roof.
We also learned that team fit is everything. Sam Darnold went to a dysfunctional Jets organization that cycled through coaches and lacked weapons. Would he have succeeded in Buffalo? Maybe. Would Baker have thrived in Baltimore? Probably not. The environment matters as much as the talent.
Actionable Insights for Evaluating Future Drafts
If you're looking at current or future mock drafts, keep these lessons from 2018 in mind to avoid the common traps:
- Ignore the "Move to Wide Receiver" Tropes: When an elite athlete plays QB in college, trust the production over the "look." Modern NFL offenses are flexible enough to accommodate different styles.
- Bet on Traits in the Top 10: If you're picking in the top ten, don't play it safe. Take the guy with the physical tools that can't be taught (size, speed, arm talent) even if they need coaching.
- Contextualize College Stats: Josh Allen’s accuracy issues at Wyoming were partly due to a lack of elite talent around him. Always look at who a player is throwing to before writing them off.
- Watch the Late First Round Trade: The 32nd pick is a gold mine. The fifth-year option on a rookie contract makes that spot perfect for taking a "high-risk" quarterback like the Ravens did with Lamar.
The 2018 draft remains one of the most fascinating case studies in NFL history. It was a year where the "experts" were flipped on their heads and the "projects" became the kings of the league. Next time you see a mock draft, remember that the guy everyone is trashing today might be the one hoisting the MVP trophy in three years.
Next Steps for Draft Fans
To truly understand the evolution of the league, compare the 2018 QB class to the 2021 or 2024 classes. You'll see the same patterns of "safe vs. ceiling" playing out. Reviewing old scouting reports on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson specifically will give you a better "eye" for spotting undervalued traits in upcoming prospects. Focus on "processing speed" and "off-platform throwing" rather than just completion percentage or height.