The 2026 NFL Draft cycle just got punched in the mouth. Seriously. If you’ve been following the mock draft community over the last few months, you knew the script: Dante Moore Jr. and Fernando Mendoza were supposed to be the "1A" and "1B" of this class, locked in a battle for the top spot. Then, a few days ago, Moore decided to return to Oregon.
That single decision didn’t just change the board; it set the entire trade market on fire. Teams that were planning to sit tight at the top are now looking at each other like they’re playing a high-stakes game of musical chairs, and there’s only one chair left. That chair is Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana signal-caller who just put up more touchdowns than incompletions in the College Football Playoff.
If you aren't the Las Vegas Raiders holding the No. 1 pick, you're basically in crisis mode.
The Fernando Mendoza Sweepstakes and the No. 1 Pick
Honestly, the Raiders are the only team that can sleep soundly right now. Mendoza is the clear-cut prize. He’s 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, and he just finished a Heisman campaign where he completed over 72% of his passes. Most scouts I talk to compare him to a more athletic version of Kirk Cousins—somebody who can manage a game with precision but has enough juice to keep a play alive when the pocket collapses.
But here’s the thing: because Moore is out of the mix, the gap between Mendoza and the next best quarterback (likely Alabama’s Ty Simpson or Miami’s Carson Beck) is now a canyon. This creates a massive leverage point for teams in the top five.
If the Raiders take Mendoza, what happens at No. 2 with the New York Jets? They were the team most people expected to land Moore. Now, they’re sitting there with a massive hole at quarterback and no "blue chip" signal-caller on the board.
Why the Jets are the Pivot Point
Basically, the Jets have two choices. They can reach for a guy like Trinidad Chambliss out of Ole Miss—who is rising fast but still feels like a gamble—or they can do the smart thing and trade down.
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In this NFL mock draft with trades, the most logical move is the Jets auctioning off that No. 2 pick to a team desperate enough to jump the line for the best remaining non-QB talent, or perhaps a team that sees Ty Simpson as "their guy."
Imagine a scenario where the Cleveland Browns or the Los Angeles Rams, both desperate for a long-term answer under center, offer a package centered around multiple first-rounders to get to that No. 2 spot. If the Jets take that deal, they can stockpile assets for 2027 and grab a plug-and-play weapon like Ohio State’s Carnell Tate later in the top ten. Tate is arguably the cleanest receiver prospect we’ve seen in three years; his route pacing is veteran-level already.
Defense Wins the Top Ten (By Default)
Since the quarterback class is so top-heavy, the 2026 draft is going to be dominated by the "monsters in the trenches." We are looking at a defensive line class that is absolutely loaded.
- Arvell Reese (Ohio State): He’s a tweener in the best way possible. Some scouts see Khalil Mack; others see a pure 4-3 defensive end. Either way, his strength-to-speed ratio is terrifying.
- Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami): Don’t let the "short arms" talk fool you. The guy is a walking disruption.
- David Bailey (Texas Tech): He’s a sack machine. While some argue he’s too small for certain schemes, you can’t argue with 12 sacks in a Power Four conference.
If you're the Arizona Cardinals at No. 3, you probably wanted Moore. But with him gone, you're looking at Francis Mauigoa, the massive tackle from Miami. Protecting whoever is under center is never a bad consolation prize. Mauigoa is 315 pounds of pure anchor. He doesn't move; he deletes pass rushers.
The Caleb Downs Factor
We have to talk about Caleb Downs. It’s rare to see a safety mentioned in the top five of any NFL mock draft with trades, but Downs is the exception. He’s been a consensus All-American basically since he stepped on a college field.
The younger brother of Josh Downs (Colts WR), Caleb is the type of "chess piece" defensive coordinators dream about. He can play the single-high, he can erase tight ends in the slot, and he’s a sure-tackler in the run game. If a team like the Giants or Titans decides they want a defensive leader rather than a project QB, Downs is the name.
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Projected Trade: The Chiefs Make a "Tyreek-Style" Move
There is a lot of buzz about the Kansas City Chiefs right now. For the first time in over a decade, they missed the playoffs. That’s a reality check. Their defensive line was... let's be kind and say "inconsistent." They finished 22nd in sacks.
Rumors are swirling that the Chiefs might consider the unthinkable: trading Chris Jones.
Why? Because they need assets. They have too many holes and not enough picks to fill them. Jones is signed through 2028, which makes him valuable to a contender who is "one piece away." If the Chiefs move Jones for a package of picks, they could jump back into the mid-first round to snag a guy like Keldric Faulk from Auburn.
Faulk is 6-foot-6, 285 pounds, and plays with a motor that never stops. He’s the "Spagnuolo-style" defensive end that the Chiefs currently lack. It’s a bold move, but Brett Veach has shown he isn't afraid to pull the trigger on a "retooling" trade if the value is right.
Mid-Round Risers to Watch
While the top of the draft is about the superstars, the middle is where the 2026 class gets interesting.
The interior offensive line group is surprisingly strong. Olaivavega Ioane from Penn State is a name you’re going to hear a lot. He’s a powerhouse athlete. If you’re the Detroit Lions and you want to maintain that "bruiser" identity, Ioane is the perfect fit. He plays like a wrecking ball in the run game.
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Then there’s the tight end position. Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq is the modern NFL's dream. He’s essentially a jumbo wide receiver. For a team like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who need a vertical threat over the middle to help out their aging receiving corps, Sadiq is a logical target in the teens.
What People Get Wrong About This Draft
The biggest misconception right now is that this is a "bad" draft because the quarterback depth is shaky.
That’s a narrow way to look at it. If you need a tackle, a defensive end, or a lockdown corner, this draft is a gold mine. The cornerback class, led by Mansoor Delane (LSU) and Malik Muhammad (Texas), is deep. You’re going to see starters drafted well into the second round.
The real "problem" is the NIL factor. We’re seeing more and more quarterbacks, like Brendan Sorsby (Texas Tech) and Darian Mensah, choosing to stay in school because the NIL money is more than what they’d get as a Day 2 or Day 3 NFL pick. This is thinning out the middle of the draft. It means teams are going to be more desperate to trade up for the few "sure things" at the top, which will likely lead to more draft-day volatility than we’ve seen in years.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Draft Analysts
If you're trying to make sense of the noise before April, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the "Trade-Up" Teams: Keep a close eye on the Rams, Browns, and Steelers. These are teams with aging or uncertain QB situations who don't have a top-three pick. They are the most likely candidates to trade their future for a shot at Mendoza or Simpson.
- Focus on the Trenches: If your team needs a pass rusher, this is the year to be aggressive. The talent drop-off after the top 15 defensive linemen is significant, so teams will likely reach for "traits" early.
- The NIL Value Gap: Realize that the "Senior Bowl" darlings of the past might not exist this year. Many of those mid-tier prospects are staying in school. This makes draft capital in the 2027 and 2028 cycles more valuable in trade negotiations.
The board is going to keep shifting, especially as we get closer to the January 23rd declaration deadline. But for now, the path to the podium is paved with defensive monsters and a whole lot of trade-baiting for a few lucky quarterbacks.