The NFL season hasn't even fully cooled off, and yet here we are, obsessing over a three-day weekend in Pittsburgh. If you’ve spent any time looking at an NFL mock draft 7 rounds deep, you know the drill. It’s chaos. By the time the fourth round hits, most "experts" are basically throwing darts at a board while hoping a small-school tackle from South Dakota State becomes the next Lane Johnson.
Honestly? Most of these mocks are trash. Not because the writers aren't smart, but because the NFL is a league of sudden, violent pivots.
One day a team needs a quarterback; the next, they’ve traded three first-rounders for a disgruntled veteran who wants out of a cold-weather city. But that doesn’t stop us from trying to map it out. We’re currently looking at a 2026 class that feels weirdly lopsided.
The Fernando Mendoza Factor and the Quarterback Problem
If you haven't been watching Indiana football, you've missed a literal movie script. Fernando Mendoza has gone from a California transfer to a Heisman winner, and now he’s the projected savior for the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders clinching the No. 1 overall pick feels like destiny in the worst way possible. They are a mess. They finished dead last in total yardage and points. Putting a rookie quarterback into that ecosystem is like throwing a steak into a lion's den, but when you have a guy who threw 41 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions in the Big Ten, you don't overthink it.
The drop-off after Mendoza is steep.
With Dante Moore deciding to head back to college, the "franchise QB" tier is basically Mendoza and maybe Ty Simpson if you're feeling spicy. Arizona is sitting there at the top of the draft potentially looking to move on from Kyler Murray, and if Mendoza is gone, they are in a brutal spot. Do you reach for Garrett Nussmeier or take a defensive cornerstone?
Most 7-round mocks ignore the panic that sets in when the "guy" is off the board. You’ll see teams like the Jets—who were apparently "punching air" after the Moore news—shifting toward the defensive side of the ball.
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Why the Trenches Will Dominate the Early Rounds
Teams are finally realizing that flashy receivers don't mean much if your quarterback is staring at the sky every third play. This 2026 class is absurdly deep on the defensive line.
- Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami): A monster. Some people hate his "short" arms, but his tape is undeniable.
- Peter Woods (Clemson): He’s 315 pounds and moves like a guy fifty pounds lighter.
- T.J. Parker (Clemson): The bull rush is terrifying.
If you’re the New York Jets and you can’t get a quarterback, you take Arvell Reese from Ohio State. Is he a linebacker? Is he an edge? It doesn't really matter when you're that explosive.
The Panthers and Bengals are also staring at the front seven. Carolina's defense was better in 2025, but they still can't stop a nosebleed in the run game. They need a guy like Sonny Styles or C.J. Allen to actually hold the middle of the field.
The Mid-Round Trap: Where Mock Drafts Fall Apart
This is where the NFL mock draft 7 rounds obsession gets tricky. Rounds four through seven are where "value" goes to die and special teams' coaches get their say.
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Everyone wants to find the next Puka Nacua. They look at guys like Akheem Mesidor from Miami. He led the ACC in sacks, but he’s going to be 25 years old by the time he takes an NFL snap. To some scouts, that’s a "mature prospect." To others, it means his ceiling is already in the rearview mirror.
You also have the "small school" effect. You'll see names like Keylan Rutledge or Logan Jones popping up in the third or fourth round. These are the picks that actually build Super Bowl rosters, yet they get the least amount of digital ink.
Realities of the 2026 Draft Order
The draft is heading to Pittsburgh from April 23-25, 2026. The Steelers are currently projected to pick in the middle of the pack, which is their natural habitat under Mike Tomlin. They need a quarterback desperately. If they are sitting at 15 or 16, and the top two guys are gone, do they trade the farm?
History says no. But history doesn't account for a fan base that is tired of watching 13-10 games.
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The Browns are in an even weirder spot. They have two first-round picks but an offensive line that ranked last in pass-blocking grade. You can't fix that in one round. They need to spend their first four picks on big men just to give whoever is playing quarterback a chance to survive the first quarter.
2026 Draft Needs by Team (The Short List)
- Raiders: Everything. But specifically QB.
- Panthers: LB and Edge. They need a pulse in the front seven.
- Browns: IOL and WR. The veteran departures are going to hurt.
- Falcons: Pass catchers. Beyond Drake London, it’s a ghost town in Atlanta.
- Ravens: Trench depth. They were surprisingly bad at pass rushing last year.
The Strategy for Following a 7-Round Mock
Stop looking for "perfection." It doesn't exist. Instead, look for the "run" on positions.
If three tackles go in the first ten picks, expect a massive reach at pick 15. If the safety class is weak—which it kinda is this year outside of Caleb Downs—teams will wait until the fifth round to grab a "project" athlete.
The 2026 draft is also unique because of the "soft" deadline for underclassmen. We already have 42 players granted special eligibility, including stars like Jeremiyah Love and Carnell Tate. This early clarity helps, but it doesn't account for the medical checks in Indianapolis. One bad ACL scan and a first-rounder becomes a Saturday afternoon flyer.
Actionable Steps for Draft Fans
- Track the Senior Bowl: This is where the mid-rounders (Rounds 3-5) prove they belong. A small-school tackle holding his own against a SEC edge rusher is worth more than a year of highlight tapes.
- Ignore "Big Boards" after Round 2: After the top 64 players, every team’s board looks wildly different based on their specific scheme requirements.
- Watch the Combine Broad Jump: For edge rushers and receivers, it’s one of the best indicators of the "explosive" traits that translate to the NFL.
- Focus on Team Tiers: Instead of saying "The Giants will take Player X," look at whether they are in a "Rebuild" or "Win Now" mode. Rebuilding teams take the best athlete; Win Now teams take the best fit.
The road to Pittsburgh is going to be long. Mendoza might be the lock for No. 1 right now, but a lot can happen between a January national championship and an April podium. Stick to the tape, ignore the hype cycles, and remember that for every 7-round mock you read, the NFL has a way of making us all look like amateurs.