Everyone thinks they know exactly how the 2026 draft is going to go. We look at the 2025 season standings—the Las Vegas Raiders sitting at 1-14, the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals struggling right alongside them—and we start plugging names into a spreadsheet. But if you’ve been paying attention to the actual tape and the way the NFL landscape shifted over the last four months, you’ll realize that the standard 1.0 mocks are already outdated.
Drafting in the seventh round isn't about finding a starter. It's about finding a guy who can play special teams for three years and maybe, just maybe, develop into a rotational piece. But everyone focuses on the top five.
Honestly? The NFL mock draft 7 round process is a chaotic mess of projection, NIL money complicating declaration decisions, and late-season injuries that have already flipped the board upside down.
The Fernando Mendoza Dominance and the QB Vacuum
Let's be real. If you told me a year ago that Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza would be the runaway Heisman winner and the consensus number one overall pick for the Raiders, I’d have asked you what you were drinking. But here we are.
Mendoza finished the 2025 college season with 41 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. He is a 6-foot-5 monster who plays with the poise of a ten-year veteran. With the Raiders firing Pete Carroll and looking to move on from Geno Smith’s league-leading interception totals, Mendoza is the "safe" pick that isn't actually safe because he has to save a franchise.
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The Jets at No. 2 are in a much weirder spot. Do they take Dante Moore from Oregon? He’s only 20. He might stay in school for the NIL money. Rumors are circulating that Oregon’s boosters might offer him more to stay than his rookie contract would pay. That's the new reality of the NFL mock draft 7 round cycle—we aren't just scouting players anymore; we're scouting bank accounts.
Top of the Board Projections (The Locks)
- 1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana. He’s basically the only "blue chip" QB this year.
- 2. New York Jets: Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami. If they don't go QB, they need a pass rusher who can actually win a one-on-one.
- 3. Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame. Kyler Murray needs a back who can catch 60 balls a year. Love is that guy.
- 4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State. After Calvin Ridley’s season-ending injury, the Titans are a mess. Reese is a Micah Parsons-lite who fixes a lot of defensive holes.
- 5. New York Giants: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State. Jaxson Dart needs more than just Malik Nabers. Tate is the best "security blanket" prospect we’ve seen in three cycles.
Why the Seventh Round is Where Drafts are Won
Most people stop reading a mock draft after pick 32. That's a mistake. The NFL mock draft 7 round grinders know that the real value in 2026 is in the depth of the offensive line and the secondary.
Take a look at the Philadelphia Eagles. Howie Roseman is probably going to ignore the "needs" and just draft for 2028. We see them linked to Kenyon Sadiq, the Oregon tight end, in the late first round. Why? Because Dallas Goedert isn't getting any younger.
But it's the 6th and 7th rounds where teams like the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens make their money. The Browns have six offensive linemen hitting free agency this year, including Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio. They can't afford to replace all of them in free agency. They’re going to be looking at guys like Gennings Dunker from Iowa or Caleb Tiernan from Northwestern late in the draft.
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These aren't sexy names. They won't get a graphic on ESPN. But if your 7th-round pick can start two games when your veteran left tackle goes down with a high ankle sprain, that pick is worth its weight in gold.
The "NIL Factor" and the Depleted 2026 Pool
We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room. This 2026 class feels "thin" at the top. Why? Because players like Dante Moore, Justice Haynes, and Matayo Uiagalelei are looking at their options and realizing they can make seven figures staying in college.
This creates a "valuation bubble" for the players who do declare. If you're a B-grade edge rusher in a weak class, you suddenly look like an A-grade prospect because of the lack of competition. This is how teams reach. This is how you end up with a bust in the top ten.
Positional Groups to Watch
- Offensive Tackle: It's a deep group. Spencer Fano (Utah) and Francis Mauigoa (Miami) are stars, but the mid-round talent is massive.
- Safety: Caleb Downs from Ohio State is the gold standard. He’s the best safety prospect since Kyle Hamilton, maybe better.
- Wide Receiver: It’s top-heavy. Beyond Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson, there’s a lot of "projection" involved.
The Late-Round Sleepers Nobody is Talking About
When you're looking at a full NFL mock draft 7 round simulation, you have to find the "traits" guys.
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Look at Jermod McCoy from Tennessee. He’s coming off a torn ACL, but the ball production he showed before the injury was elite. If he falls to the 5th or 6th round because of medical concerns, he’s a potential CB1 for a team like the Washington Commanders who ranked in the bottom three in explosive pass rate allowed this year.
Then there’s the defensive line. The Chicago Bears got bullied this year. They allowed the most yards before contact on designed runs in the entire NFL. They don't just need a starter; they need a whole new rotation. A guy like Kayden McDonald from Ohio State in the late rounds could be a 340-pound brick wall for them.
Actionable Insights for Your Own Draft Board
If you're building your own mock or just trying to win your dynasty league's rookie draft, keep these three things in mind:
- Follow the Trench Needs: Teams like the Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans are desperate for offensive line depth. If a tackle has a "6th round grade" but elite length, expect them to go a full round earlier.
- The QB Drop-Off is Real: After Mendoza and Moore, the talent pool falls off a cliff. If your team needs a QB and misses out on those two, expect them to trade back or wait until 2027.
- Ignore the "Big Board" Rankings: In 2026, team-specific "fits" matter more than consensus rankings. A 3-4 defense like the Philadelphia Eagles will value a guy like Joshua Josephs much higher than a traditional 4-3 team would.
The draft will be held April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. Between now and then, the combine will change everything. But right now, the smart money is on the teams that realize the 2026 class is about survival in the trenches, not just finding a flashy quarterback.