It is that time of year again. The regular season has wrapped, the playoff bracket is set, and the football world is descending upon San Francisco for the 15th annual NFL Honors. While everyone loves to argue about the MVP race, there’s a different kind of debate brewing over the NFL Honors AP Coach of the Year award.
Honestly, this award is a weird one. It’s not necessarily about who the "best" coach is—if it were, Andy Reid or Bill Belichick would have just kept it on their mantels for two decades. Instead, it’s about the narrative. It's about who did the most with the least, or who steered a sinking ship back into calm waters.
As we look at the 2025-2026 cycle, one name is basically screaming at the voters: Mike Vrabel.
The Resurrection of the Patriots
Remember where the New England Patriots were a year ago? They were a 4-13 disaster. The post-Belichick era felt like a slow-motion car crash. Then Mike Vrabel walks in. He didn't just fix the culture; he blew the doors off the AFC East.
Taking a team from four wins to a 14-3 record isn't just "good coaching." It's alchemy. Vrabel has the Patriots sitting as the #1 seed in the AFC, and he did it by taking down the Buffalo Bills in the division race. Sportsbooks like ESPN Bet have him at a staggering -365 to win the NFL Honors AP Coach of the Year. That’s roughly a 78% implied probability.
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But it’s not a locked door yet. Mike Macdonald has been doing some pretty insane things in Seattle. The Seahawks locked up the top seed in the NFC with a 14-3 record of their own. If the voters decide they prefer the "young genius" vibe over the "tough-as-nails leader" vibe, things could get interesting.
How the Voting Actually Works (It’s Messy)
People think a bunch of suits in a boardroom pick the winner. Not quite. It’s actually a panel of 50 media members from the Associated Press. They cast their ballots before the playoffs start. This is crucial because what happens in the Wild Card or Divisional round doesn't matter for this trophy.
Since 2022, they’ve used a weighted point system:
- First-place vote: 5 points
- Second-place vote: 3 points
- Third-place vote: 1 point
We saw how much this matters just two years ago. Kevin Stefanski and DeMeco Ryans actually tied in total points (165 each). It was wild. Stefanski only won because he had one more first-place vote (21 to 20). If one person had swapped their vote, Ryans would’ve been the guy.
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The Stefanski Standard
Kevin Stefanski actually won the NFL Honors AP Coach of the Year twice in four years (2020 and 2023). He was the master of "next man up." In 2023, he went through five different quarterbacks—including a 39-year-old Joe Flacco he found on a couch—and still made the playoffs.
But look at how fast the NFL moves. By the start of 2026, Stefanski was fired after a brutal 8-26 stretch over the last two seasons. This award is a snapshot of excellence, not a lifetime achievement contract.
The Contenders Behind the Favorites
While Vrabel and Macdonald are the heavy hitters, a few other names are floating around the conversation:
- Liam Coen (Jaguars): He turned the Jags into division champs in his first year. He’s sitting at +775 odds.
- Ben Johnson (Bears): There was so much hype around him taking over Chicago. He did a solid job getting Caleb Williams through his sophomore jump, but a late-season slump probably pushed him to the "maybe next year" pile.
- Sean Payton (Broncos): He’s always in the mix, but at +15000, you’re basically betting on a miracle.
Why the "Narrative" Matters Most
If you want to win this award, you need a story.
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In 2024 (awarded Feb 2025), Kevin O'Connell won it because he turned Sam Darnold—a guy everyone had written off—into a 14-win quarterback. He beat out Dan Campbell, who had a franchise-record 15 wins with the Lions. Why did O'Connell win? Because nobody expected the Vikings to be that good. Everyone expected the Lions to be great.
That’s the "expectations trap." If your team is supposed to be good, you have to be undefeated to get noticed. If your team is supposed to suck and you win 11 games, you’re a coaching god.
What to Watch For at the Ceremony
The 15th NFL Honors will take place on February 5, 2026, at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco. Jon Hamm is hosting this time around. It's going to be a star-studded night, but the NFL Honors AP Coach of the Year is usually one of the first big awards handed out.
If you’re tracking this for your own knowledge or just trying to win a bar bet, keep an eye on these three things:
- The "Turnaround" Factor: Did the coach take a losing team to the playoffs? (Advantage: Vrabel)
- Quarterback Development: Did they "save" a QB or groom a rookie? (Advantage: Johnson/Coen)
- The Seedings: Being a #1 seed almost always guarantees you a top-three finish in voting. (Advantage: Vrabel/Macdonald)
The Bottom Line:
Mike Vrabel is the clear frontrunner for a reason. Taking the Patriots from the basement to the penthouse in 12 months is exactly what AP voters love to reward. He’s followed the exact blueprint used by previous winners: high win total, massive year-over-year improvement, and a clear "identity" change for the franchise.
Your Next Steps:
- Check the final voting breakdown on the AP website immediately after the ceremony on Feb 5th to see if it was another tie-breaker situation.
- Compare the Coach of the Year winner with the Assistant Coach of the Year (Ben Johnson won that last year)—often, a great head coach is only as good as the coordinator the league is about to poach.