The regular season is in the rearview mirror, and if you haven't been paying attention to Foxborough, you've missed one of the most jarring turnarounds in recent NFL history. We’re standing on the doorstep of the NFL Honors, and the conversation surrounding the current nominations for NFL Honors AP Coach of the Year has essentially turned into a three-man sprint.
Honestly, the "nominations" in this category are a bit of an open secret. While the Associated Press won't officially narrow the field to the final five finalists until right before the ceremony in February, the betting markets and the win-loss columns have already done the heavy lifting for us.
It's Mike Vrabel’s world. We’re all just living in it.
The Case for Mike Vrabel: The New England Resurrection
When Vrabel took the job in New England, people thought he was stepping into a ghost town. The post-Belichick era had curdled into a 4-13 mess. One year later? The Patriots are 14-3. They aren't just winning; they're bullying people.
Vrabel has done what elite coaches do: he leaned into his rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, and built a culture that doesn't beat itself. Most experts, including the folks over at The Draft Network, are already penciling him in as the lock. He’s currently sitting as a massive betting favorite, with odds as short as -400. That’s a 74% to 80% implied probability that he’s taking home the hardware.
There is one nagging "yeah, but" though. The schedule. New England played a slate that some analysts describe as "pillowy soft." They only beat one team that finished with a winning record. Does that matter? Probably not to the voters. A ten-win improvement is a ten-win improvement.
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Mike Macdonald and the Seattle Sensation
If anyone is going to play spoiler, it’s Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks are the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Let that sink in. They went 14-3 in a division that features Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. That’s basically like winning a marathon while carrying a backpack full of bricks.
Macdonald’s defense is currently ranked second in the league in EPA per play. He took a roster that many expected to middle out and turned them into the Super Bowl favorites. If the voters value "degree of difficulty" over "total win turnaround," Macdonald wins this going away.
"Macdonald moved from +750 to +300 in the final weeks for a reason. Seattle didn't just win; they conquered the NFC West gauntlet." — BetMGM Analytics
The Liam Coen "Duval" Transformation
Down in Jacksonville, Liam Coen is making people forget the Doug Pederson era ever happened. The Jaguars were another four-win team that suddenly found themselves winning eight straight to close the season.
Coen has Trevor Lawrence playing the best football of his life. Even after losing Travis Hunter—the No. 2 overall pick—to a knee injury, the offense didn't blink. Coen is sitting at +950 odds, which makes him a long shot compared to Vrabel, but in any other year, a 13-4 record and a division title would make him a runaway winner.
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Other Names Lingering in the Shadows
- Ben Johnson (Chicago Bears): He was the preseason darling. Everyone thought the combination of Johnson and Caleb Williams would break the league. It was good, sure, but a late-season stumble pushed his odds out to +10000.
- Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers): Shanahan is the "always a bridesmaid" candidate. He led a team riddled with injuries—missing Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, and Brock Purdy for stretches—to 12 wins. But losing the division to Seattle in Week 18 basically killed his chances.
- Sean Payton (Denver Broncos): Payton has the Broncos back in the playoffs, but he’s mostly viewed as a "happy to be here" candidate this year with +5000 odds.
Why This Race is Different This Year
Usually, this award goes to the "most improved" team. That's why Kevin O'Connell won it in 2024. But 2025/2026 is weird because we have three different coaches who all hit the 13 or 14-win mark after coming from nowhere.
It’s a "narrative" award. The AP voters are humans. They like stories.
Vrabel’s story: The returning hero fixes the dynasty.
Macdonald’s story: The young genius outclasses the legends.
Coen’s story: The offensive wizard saves a franchise QB.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Voting
People think the playoffs matter for this. They don't. The ballots are cast before the Wild Card round begins. Whatever Mike Vrabel or Mike Macdonald does in the postseason is irrelevant to the current nominations for NFL Honors AP Coach of the Year. It is strictly a regular-season award.
Also, keep an eye on the "Assistant Coach of the Year" nominations. Often, if a head coach is a finalist, his coordinators get love too. Brian Flores (Vikings) and Joe Brady (Bills) are high on that list, but their success sometimes actually hurts the head coach's case because it splits the credit.
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How to Follow the Final Announcement
The official winner will be revealed at the 14th Annual NFL Honors ceremony.
- Date: Thursday, February 5, 2026.
- Location: New Orleans, ahead of Super Bowl LX.
- Broadcaster: NBC and NFL Network.
If you’re looking to track the movement before then, watch the "All-Pro" coaching nods. Historically, the coach who gets the most votes for the AP All-Pro staff is a mirror for the Coach of the Year winner. Right now, all signs point to the guy in the New England hoodie.
The most actionable thing you can do now is look at the strength of schedule metrics for the 2026 season. If Vrabel wins based on a 14-3 record against "weak" opponents, it sets a massive precedent for how voters will treat future first-year coaches who inherit soft schedules.
Next Steps: You can compare these coaching stats against the NFL MVP race, where Drake Maye and Matt Stafford are currently neck-and-neck, as the success of a coach is almost always tied to the man under center.