The NFL Divisional Round is usually where the pretenders get exposed. It's that weird weekend where the "happy to be here" teams walk into the buzzsaw of a rested No. 1 seed. But looking at the board for January 17-18, 2026, things feel a little... off.
You’ve got the Buffalo Bills flying into the thin air of Denver. You’ve got a massive NFC West trilogy happening in Seattle. And then there's the weather. If you haven't checked the forecast for Foxborough or Chicago, buckle up. We're talking single digits and "snow-fest" potential. Honestly, if you’re betting on these games based on regular-season stats alone, you’re probably going to lose your shirt.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: The Mile High Reality Check
The Bills are coming off a gutsy 27-24 win over Jacksonville. Josh Allen did Josh Allen things, but let’s be real—Buffalo’s defense looked gassed by the fourth quarter. Now they have to play at Empower Field against a Denver team that has been essentially invisible for two weeks while they rested up.
Denver is a 1.5-point favorite. That feels low, right? Maybe not. Sean Payton has turned the Broncos into a high-efficiency machine, finishing 14-3 and dominating the AFC West. But there’s a history here. Buffalo actually leads the all-time series and absolutely smoked Denver in the playoffs last year.
The Prediction: Most people are taking Denver because of the bye week. I get it. But Sean McDermott is 6-3 on the road this year. If Josh Allen protects the ball—a big "if"—Buffalo has the vertical threat to test Denver's secondary in a way they haven't been tested in a month. However, the thin air is the 12th man here. I like Denver to win a nail-biter, something like 24-21, but Buffalo covers that tiny spread.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: The Rivalry That Won't Die
This is the big one for Saturday night. The 49ers just pulled off a massive upset against the Eagles, winning 23-19. They are the No. 6 seed, but they don't play like it. Seattle, meanwhile, has been sitting at home waiting for this exact matchup.
Lumen Field is going to be deafening. The Seahawks are favored by 7.5 points, which feels disrespectful to a Niners team that just beat the defending NFC champs. But look at the injury report. Trent Williams is back, which is huge for Brock Purdy’s blindside, but Seattle’s pass rush, led by a (hopefully) healthy DeMarcus Lawrence, is a different beast entirely.
The Prediction: Seattle is 8-2 in their last 10 at home. The 49ers have too many "walking wounded" on defense, including Fred Warner dealing with that ankle. Seattle wins, but 7.5 is a huge number for a divisional rivalry. Take the Niners to keep it within a touchdown. Seattle 27, San Francisco 20.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Defense, Dirt, and Drake Maye
Sunday afternoon in Foxborough is going to be a mess. The forecast is calling for 35 degrees and a high chance of snow. This is "old school" football. The Texans just dismantled the Steelers 30-6, and their defense is playing like the best unit in the league right now.
But here’s the problem: Nico Collins is in concussion protocol. That is a massive blow for C.J. Stroud. Without his WR1, Stroud has to rely on Justin Watson (also in protocol) and a run game that might struggle against New England’s front seven.
New England is a 3-point favorite. Drake Maye has been solid, but he hasn't seen a defense this disguised since he was in college. The Patriots’ injury list is long—Morgan Moses and Thayer Munford Jr. are both struggling—which means Maye might be running for his life.
The Prediction: This is going to be ugly. Low scoring. Lots of punts. The under (41) is the smartest play here. Honestly, the Texans' defense is good enough to win this game outright. Let's go with the "upset." Texans 16, Patriots 13.
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Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: The Ice Bowl 2.0
If you think Foxborough is cold, Chicago is going to be a literal freezer. We're talking 17 degrees at kickoff, dropping into the single digits, with wind gusts up to 40 mph. The Rams, a dome-ish team from LA, are traveling into a wind tunnel.
Caleb Williams just gave Chicago its first home playoff win since 2010. The vibes at Soldier Field are immaculate. The Rams are 4.5-point favorites on the road, which tells you Vegas still doesn't fully buy the Bears' hype. Matthew Stafford has the arm talent to cut through the wind, but can his receivers catch a frozen ball?
The Prediction: The "Frozen Tundra" effect is real. Historically, passing production drops by nearly 10% when it’s this cold. Chicago’s defense is 8-2 against the spread at home lately. The Rams are the better team on paper, but the elements are the great equalizer. I’m calling the shocker. Chicago wins on a late, ugly field goal. Bears 20, Rams 19.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Weekend
Everyone looks at the "1" next to the Broncos and Seahawks and assumes they are locks. They aren't. Rust is real. Since the NFL expanded the playoffs, No. 1 seeds haven't been the sure bets they used to be.
Also, watch the kicking game. In games like Rams-Bears, a 40-yard field goal in 40 mph wind is basically a 60-yarder. Don't trust the over. If you're looking for actionable moves, look at the under on passing yards for basically everyone playing on Sunday. The weather is going to dictate the strategy more than the playbooks will.
The Weekend Action Plan:
- Check the final status of Nico Collins. If he's out, the Texans' offense becomes one-dimensional.
- Bet the Unders on Sunday. Between the wind in Chicago and the snow in New England, points will be at a premium.
- Monitor the Seattle spread. If it climbs to 8 or 8.5, the Niners become an even more attractive cover.
- Watch the Broncos' conditioning. Denver's high altitude is a weapon, but the Bills have been playing high-stakes football for a month straight. They won't quit.
Stick to the lines that account for the weather, and don't be afraid to take the points with the road underdogs this weekend. The "chalk" is a lot more fragile than the experts are letting on.