Honestly, if you’re looking at the nfl games odds this week and thinking the favorites are a lock, you haven’t been paying attention to how weird this season has actually been. Everyone loves a chalk Sunday. But the divisional round is usually where the "math" meets a frozen field in Foxborough or the lake effect wind in Chicago, and suddenly those spreads look a lot less certain.
We're sitting on two massive games today, Sunday, January 18, 2026. The AFC matchup has the Houston Texans visiting the New England Patriots, while the nightcap features a heavy-hitting NFC battle between the Los Angeles Rams and the Chicago Bears.
Markets are moving. Information is leaking. Let's break down what's actually happening with the numbers.
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Breaking Down the AFC: Texans at Patriots
The New England Patriots are currently sitting as 3-point favorites at most books, with a moneyline around -175. If you want to back the Texans, you’re getting about +145 on the comeback.
Why is the spread so tight? Basically, it’s the C.J. Stroud factor vs. the New England weather. The total is sitting at a measly 40.5 points, which tells you everything you need to know about what the oddsmakers expect. They aren't expecting a shootout. They’re expecting a grind.
The Hidden Trap in the Texans Line
Most casual bettors see "Texans +3" and think it’s a gift because of how explosive that offense can be. But here's the thing: New England’s defense has been a nightmare for young quarterbacks this year. They specialize in taking away the primary read. If Stroud can’t find his rhythm early in the freezing cold, that +3 is going to evaporate by halftime.
However, some sharp money has actually been trickling toward Houston. Why? Because the Patriots' offensive line has been shaky at best. If the Texans can generate pressure with just four rushers, the Patriots might struggle to even hit 20 points. It's a classic "unstoppable force vs. immovable object" scenario, except the force is shivering and the object is made of ice.
The NFC Showdown: Rams at Bears
Now, this is where the nfl games odds this week get really interesting. The Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point road favorites against the Chicago Bears. The total here is much higher, sitting around 48.5.
You’ve got Matthew Stafford going back into the cold, which is always a talking point for the talking heads on TV. People love to bring up his record in low temperatures. Is it relevant? Maybe. But the Bears' defense is the real story. They lead the league in turnovers forced, even if they give up a ton of yardage.
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Why the Bears +3.5 is Tempting
Soldier Field in late January is a special kind of miserable. The Rams are built for turf and fast tracks.
- The Wind: Forecasts suggest gusts could affect the kicking game.
- The Second Half: Chicago has been a completely different team after halftime lately, ranking near the top of the league in EPA per play in the third and fourth quarters.
If the Rams don't jump out to a massive lead early, the Bears are live dogs. The moneyline for Chicago is hovering around +164, which is a tempting price for a home team in a playoff atmosphere.
What Most People Get Wrong About Playoff Odds
People tend to overvalue "momentum" and undervalue "matchup specifics."
Take the Denver Broncos game from yesterday. They were 1.5-point favorites and won a thriller in overtime, but the real story was the injury to Bo Nix. He’s out for the rest of the postseason with a broken ankle. That immediately sent the Broncos' Super Bowl futures plummeting from +700 to +950.
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If you were just looking at the final score of the Bills-Broncos game, you’d think Denver is the team to beat. But the nfl games odds this week reflect the reality that they’re now starting Jarrett Stidham. Context is everything.
Actionable Insights for Sunday’s Slate
If you're looking to place a wager or just want to sound smart at the watch party, keep these specific details in mind:
- Watch the Patriots' Injury Report: Keep a close eye on the status of their offensive tackles. If they're down to backups, the Texans' moneyline becomes much more attractive.
- The "Key Number" 3: In the Texans/Patriots game, that 3-point spread is massive. If it moves to 3.5, the value flips to Houston. If it drops to 2.5, you almost have to take the Patriots.
- Live Betting the Bears: Because Chicago is a second-half team, if the Rams go up by 7 or 10 early, the "live" spread for the Bears might balloon to +10.5 or +13.5. That’s often where the best value is found.
Final Look at the Board
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Patriots | NE -3 | 40.5 | HOU +145 / NE -175 |
| Rams @ Bears | LAR -3.5 | 48.5 | LAR -198 / CHI +164 |
At the end of the day, the playoffs are about variance. One muffed punt or one tipped interception changes everything, and the odds can't always account for the "human element" of a 15-degree sideline.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should verify the active roster for the Patriots' offensive line before kickoff at 3 p.m. ET. For the late game, check the local Chicago wind speeds about 30 minutes before the 6:30 p.m. ET start, as any gusts over 15 mph will significantly hamper the Rams' deep passing game and could make the "Under 48.5" a much stronger play.