Wait. Let’s actually look at the logistics for a second before we get swept up in the "London Monarchs" hype. For years, every time Roger Goodell steps onto a podium at Wembley or the flashy Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, the same question circles like a vulture: when is a permanent nfl franchise in london actually happening?
Honestly, if you listen to the talking heads on Sunday morning pre-game shows, they make it sound like it’s a done deal. Like they’re just waiting for the ink to dry on a Heathrow lease. But the reality is way messier. It’s a mix of billion-dollar stadium renovations in Florida, jet lag that ruins careers, and a tax system that makes American players want to run for the hills.
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We aren't just talking about a vacation. This is a business move that would redefine the most profitable league on earth.
The Jacksonville Sidetrack
You can’t talk about a London team without talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re basically London’s "adopted" team at this point. Shad Khan, their owner, also owns Fulham FC. It makes sense on paper, right? He’s already got the keys to the city.
But here’s the thing—the Jags just signed a massive $1.4 billion deal to renovate EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville. Why would they drop over a billion dollars on a stadium in Florida if they were planning to pack their bags for the UK? They wouldn't. That deal, which runs through the 2028 season and beyond, basically killed the "Jaguars are moving" rumor for at least a decade.
So, if it’s not the Jags, it has to be an expansion team. That’s a whole different beast.
Why the NFL Franchise in London is a Logistical Nightmare
Imagine you’re a player for the Seattle Seahawks. You’ve got a game in London on Sunday. That’s a 10-hour flight. You’re crossing eight time zones. Your body thinks it’s 4:00 AM when you’re supposed to be hitting a 300-pound lineman.
The league has tried to fix this. They give teams a bye week after London games. They’ve experimented with flying out early Monday versus flying out late Friday. But for a permanent nfl franchise in london, you can’t just give them a bye week every other time they play.
Think about the "Home" team's schedule:
- They’d probably have to play in "blocks."
- Four games in London, then four games in the States.
- They’d need a secondary headquarters in a US city—maybe Orlando or Charlotte—just to live out of for half the year.
It sounds cool until you’re the guy who hasn’t seen his kids in six weeks because your team is "home" in a country 4,000 miles away.
The Money: It’s Not Just Ticket Sales
The NFL doesn't need London for the ticket money. They sell out everywhere. What they want is the 9:00 AM ET television window.
By putting a team in London, the NFL creates a fourth window of TV revenue. You’ve got the London morning slot, the early afternoon games, the late afternoon games, and Sunday Night Football. That’s a 15-hour marathon of advertising revenue.
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was literally built for this. It has a retractable grass pitch with a synthetic NFL field tucked underneath. It has massive locker rooms designed for 53-man rosters, not 25-man soccer squads. The infrastructure is there. The "Home of the NFL in the UK" status is official through 2030.
But there’s a catch. Taxes.
In the UK, the tax man takes a huge bite. If an NFL player spends more than half the year in London, they’re paying UK income tax. When you’re making $20 million a year, the difference between Florida’s zero-state-tax and the UK’s top bracket is enough to make a superstar refuse a trade. The NFL would almost have to create a "London subsidy" or a salary cap exception just to keep the team competitive in free agency.
The 2026 Reality Check
We’re looking at 2026 as a pivotal year. The league is expanding the international slate to eight games. We’ve got Madrid, Sao Paulo, Munich, and Dublin all in the mix now.
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Is London still the priority? Or has the NFL realized that a "touring" model is actually better?
Think about it. If you have one team in London, you have one fan base. If you have eight different teams visit London, Germany, and Spain every year, you keep the entire continent of Europe engaged. You sell eight different jerseys instead of one.
What This Actually Means for You
If you’re a fan hoping to see a permanent team across the pond, don’t hold your breath for a relocation. The most likely scenario is the NFL continuing to "test" the market until the logistics are unsolvable or until they decide an expansion to 34 or 36 teams is the only way forward.
What to watch for next:
- The Jaguars' 2027 season: They’ll be playing in Orlando while their stadium is fixed. If they decide to play three or four games in London that year, it’s a "dry run" for a permanent move.
- The 2026 scheduling: Look for whether the NFL starts grouping London games back-to-back. If the same team stays in London for two weeks, they’re testing the "hub" concept.
- The Super Bowl rumor: There’s been talk of Tottenham hosting a Super Bowl. If that happens, the permanent franchise is almost a certainty.
Basically, the NFL is dating London, and they’ve been dating for nearly 20 years. They’ve moved in some furniture, but they haven't bought the ring yet.
Keep an eye on the Jacksonville stadium construction and the tax treaty updates between the US and UK. Those boring legal documents will tell you more about the future of an nfl franchise in london than any Roger Goodell press conference ever will.
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For now, just enjoy the October games. They're the closest thing we've got to a global league, even if the jet lag is a total killer.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Investors
- Monitor Stadium Renovations: The completion of Jacksonville's EverBank Stadium in 2028 is the "hard date." If a team hasn't moved by then, they likely won't for another decade.
- Watch the Tax Policy: Any changes to the UK’s "Non-Dom" tax status or specific athlete exemptions will be the first real signal that a franchise is incoming.
- Expansion over Relocation: Focus on news regarding the NFL expanding to 34 or 36 teams. The league's current 32-team schedule is too "perfect" to break for a single relocation.