Honestly, if you looked at the NFL football schedule standings back in October and thought you had this season figured out, you’re probably staring at a busted bracket right now. The 2025-26 NFL season has been a total fever dream. We’ve seen perennial powerhouses like the Kansas City Chiefs crumble to a 6-11 record while the Denver Broncos—yes, those Broncos—secured the top seed in the AFC with a 14-3 finish.
It’s January 16, 2026. The Wild Card dust has settled, and we’re sitting on the doorstep of the Divisional Round. If you're looking for logic, you won't find much in a year where the Carolina Panthers won their division with a losing record (8-9) and the Pittsburgh Steelers watched Mike Tomlin resign after a playoff exit.
The playoffs are a different beast.
The Current State of the NFL Football Schedule Standings
Right now, the bracket is lean. We started with 14 teams, but after a chaotic Wild Card weekend, six teams have already been sent packing. The Jacksonville Jaguars, despite a stellar 13-4 regular season, got bounced early. The Philadelphia Eagles, who many picked to return to the Super Bowl, fell to the San Francisco 49ers.
The standings that mattered in December are basically scrap paper now.
What's left is a mix of heavyweights and scrappy wild cards. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (1) and New England Patriots (2) sat out last week, resting up while the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans fought through the mud to earn their spots. Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks (1) and Chicago Bears (2) are the teams to beat.
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AFC Divisional Matchups: Can Anyone Stop Denver?
Saturday kicks off with the Buffalo Bills (6) traveling to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (1). Kickoff is set for 4:30 PM ET on CBS. Denver’s defense has been suffocating all year, allowing the fewest points in the conference. But Buffalo is riding high after an emotional 27-24 win over the Jaguars.
Sunday brings us the Houston Texans (5) at the New England Patriots (2). This one is personal for Pats fans. Mike Vrabel, now at the helm in Foxborough, has turned this team into a disciplined machine, finishing 14-3. Meanwhile, Houston is fresh off a 30-6 demolition of the Steelers.
Houston's defense is legit.
New England is playing at home.
Something has to give.
NFC Divisional Matchups: The West vs. The North
The Saturday nightcap is a divisional grudge match: San Francisco 49ers (6) at Seattle Seahawks (1). You can basically throw the regular season stats out the window when these two meet. Seattle finished 14-3, looking like the best team in football for most of the year. However, the Niners just dismantled the Eagles and seem to be peaking at the exact right moment.
On Sunday night, the Los Angeles Rams (5) head to Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (2). Chicago's 11-6 record might look modest compared to Seattle, but they've been incredibly tough at home. The Rams, though, are the wild card in every sense of the word. They outlasted the Panthers 34-31 in a shootout last week and have an offense that can score from anywhere on the field.
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Why the Regular Season Standings Lied to Us
We spend months obsessed with the NFL football schedule standings, tracking every win and loss like it’s a life-or-death situation. But this year proved that momentum is the only metric that actually survives into January.
Take the Green Bay Packers. They finished 9-7-1—a weird, clunky record—and nearly knocked off the Bears in the Wild Card round before falling 31-27. Or look at the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers "won" that division at 8-9. They were technically a playoff team, but they were immediately exposed by a 12-5 Rams team that didn't even win its own division.
Key Factors Moving Forward
- Home Field Advantage: Denver and Seattle are notoriously difficult places to play in January. The thin air in Colorado and the noise in Washington are real variables.
- The Quarterback Gap: We're seeing a massive shift in the guard. Aaron Rodgers' likely final game in Pittsburgh was a dud. Now, it's about whether the young guns in Houston and Chicago can handle the pressure of the Divisional round.
- Injury Reports: Keep a close eye on New England. Mike Vrabel mentioned in his Friday presser that key pieces like Christian Gonzalez and Harold Landry III are "questionable." In a game decided by inches, those absences are massive.
What You Should Do Next
If you’re tracking the NFL football schedule standings for betting or just for bragging rights at the office, don't just look at the W-L column.
First, check the "Points Against" (PA) stats for the remaining teams. The Broncos and Seahawks didn't just win; they strangled opponents. Defense actually does win championships in the modern era, despite what the highlight reels tell you.
Second, watch the weather. Chicago and Foxborough in late January are not for the faint of heart. Teams built on speed and finesse often struggle when the turf turns to ice.
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Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round:
- Monitor the Patriots' Injury List: If Gonzalez is out, the Texans' passing attack becomes a much bigger threat.
- Focus on the Rams' Scoring: LA is averaging over 30 points in their last three games. If Chicago can't turn the game into a defensive slog, they're in trouble.
- Respect the Bye Week: Historically, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds win at a significantly higher rate because of that extra week of rest. Don't bet the house on an "upset" just because a Wild Card team looked good last Monday.
The road to Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium is narrowing. By Monday morning, only four teams will be left standing.
Stay tuned to the official injury reports and local beat writers. The standings told us who was good in November; the next 48 hours will tell us who is legendary.
Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the weather forecasts for Chicago and Foxborough. If the wind speeds exceed 15 mph, expect a heavy shift toward the running game and a lower total score. Also, verify the final active rosters 90 minutes before kickoff to see if the "questionable" stars for New England actually suit up. Standings get you to the dance, but health and weather decide who stays.