Honestly, NFL Week 10 is usually where the wheels come off for the "lock of the century" crowd. We are past the halfway point. Bodies are held together by athletic tape and sheer willpower. By now, the betting public thinks they’ve got it all figured out, but Vegas is just sitting there, smiling. If you’re looking for NFL football picks week 10, you have to stop looking at the jersey and start looking at the bruises.
The 2025 season has been particularly weird. We’ve seen the Denver Broncos—led by a rookie in Bo Nix—somehow scrape together a 7-2 record by November. Meanwhile, "superteams" like the Detroit Lions are looking human, dropping games they should win by two scores. This week isn't about who has the better Madden rating. It's about who is surviving.
The Berlin Trap: Falcons vs. Colts
Let’s talk about the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in Germany. The Indianapolis Colts are sitting at 7-2, but they’re coming off a six-turnover disaster against Pittsburgh. Daniel Jones (yes, he’s a Colt now) looked like he was playing in a blizzard without a coat.
The Falcons are "slip, sliding away" according to most analysts, sitting at 3-5. But here’s the thing about international games: travel is a Great Equalizer. The Colts are -6.5 favorites, but they won't play a true home game until Week 13. They are tired. Drake London is coming off a massive 3-touchdown performance against New England. If the Falcons can protect Michael Penix Jr., they don't just cover the +6.5; they might win outright in Berlin.
Lions at Commanders: A Reality Check in Landover
Detroit is an 8.5-point favorite on the road. On paper, that makes sense. The Commanders are 3-6 and the season feels "lost." But Detroit just lost at home to J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. That’s embarrassing for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
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Washington’s defense is a sieve, granted. But 8.5 points is a massive spread for a road team that just showed they can play down to their competition. The Lions usually win, but they rarely make it easy on bettors. I’m taking the Commanders to cover here. It’ll be ugly, probably 27-20, but that backdoor cover is calling my name.
The Heavyweights: Rams at 49ers
This is the game everyone is circling. The Rams are 6-2 and look like the best team in the NFC. Matthew Stafford has 21 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. That is absurd efficiency. On the other side, the 49ers are 6-3 and just "got right" by beating up on the Giants.
Kyle Shanahan has hinted that Brock Purdy might actually return for this one. If Purdy plays, the energy in Santa Clara changes. But the Rams have Davante Adams (nursing an oblique, but McVay says he’s fine) and a defense that has allowed only 20 points in the last three games.
- The Pick: Rams -4.5.
- The Logic: Stafford is in a "zone" that Purdy (even if healthy) will struggle to match coming off an injury.
Bills at Dolphins: The AFC East Grinder
Buffalo is back at No. 1 in many power rankings after a huge win over the Chiefs. They are 9.5-point favorites against a Miami team that is basically a skeleton crew. Miami traded Jaelan Phillips to the Eagles. They are 2-7. They are looking at 2026, not Week 10.
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However, divisional games are always grimy. The Bills are 2-1 ATS as road favorites, but the Dolphins—even in a lost season—usually play Buffalo tough at home. I’d stay away from the spread here and look at the Over (50.5). Josh Allen is going to get his, and Miami’s track meet offense usually finds a way to score garbage-time points.
Monday Night Fireworks: Eagles at Packers
Monday Night Football at Lambeau. It doesn't get better. The Eagles are 6-2, coming off a bye, and Saquon Barkley’s groin seems to be healed enough for a full workload. The Packers are 5-3-1 and just lost to the Panthers at home.
Green Bay is a 1.5-point favorite, which feels like a "respect the Frozen Tundra" line more than a "this team is better" line. The Eagles' defense just added Sauce Gardner (huge trade news earlier in the season) and he is exactly what they need to stifle Jordan Love.
"It's a throwback game for a proud defense," says John Oehser of Jaguars.com, and while he was talking about the Steelers, the same logic applies to this Philly unit. They are opportunistic.
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Why the "Public" Picks Are Dangerous
Most people are going to parlay the Bills, Lions, and Ravens. On paper, those three should cruise. But the Ravens are only 6-11 against the spread (ATS) in 2025. They win games, but they don't cover. They’re facing a Vikings team that is 4-4 and surprisingly frisky.
When looking at NFL football picks week 10, you have to ignore the win-loss record and look at the ATS trends. New England and Seattle are the kings of the spread this year, both covering over 70% of the time. If you aren't betting on those two, you're leaving money on the table.
Actionable Betting Strategy for Week 10
Don't chase losses from the 1:00 p.m. games by doubling down on the Sunday Night Steelers vs. Chargers game. That’s how bankrolls die. Instead, focus on these three things:
- Monitor the Concussion Protocol: Jaxson Dart (Giants) and Terrion Arnold (Lions) are out. If a backup QB is starting, the Under is almost always the play.
- The "Bye Week" Bump: The Eagles and Buccaneers are coming off rest. Traditionally, rested teams cover at a 56% clip in the second half of the season.
- Ditch the Teasers: Week 10 is historically high-variance. Teasing a 7-point favorite down to 1 point seems safe until they lose outright.
Stick to the Rams spread and the Eagles moneyline. Those are the most "honest" lines on the board. The NFL is a league of parity, and by Week 10, that parity finally starts to bite the overconfident bettor.
Check the final injury reports on Friday afternoon. If Saquon Barkley or Davante Adams move from "Limited" to "Full Participant," hammer those lines before they move. If they stay "Questionable," keep your units small. This week is a marathon, not a sprint.
Next Steps: You should check the updated weather report for Green Bay on Monday; a high-wind forecast would significantly favor the Eagles' rushing attack over Jordan Love's deep ball.