Wait. Stop looking at the historical stats for a second. If you’re still betting based on what happened in 2024 or even early 2025, you are basically throwing your money into a shredder. The landscape of the league has shifted so violently in the last few weeks that the opening lines look like ancient history. We are currently sitting in the heat of the playoffs, and the board at the major sportsbooks is shaking.
Right now, the Seattle Seahawks are the betting favorites to win Super Bowl 60.
Most books have them sitting somewhere between +145 and +155. That is a massive jump for a team that started the season as a +6000 afterthought. If you’d told a Seahawks fan in August that Sam Darnold would be the guy leading them to the #1 seed, they would have laughed you out of the stadium. But here we are. Mike Macdonald has built a defense that looks like a modern-day reincarnation of the Legion of Boom, and the "12s" are smelling blood.
The Current State of NFL Football Odds to Win the Super Bowl
The oddsboard is currently a tale of two conferences. In the NFC, you have a powerhouse trio, while the AFC has turned into a chaotic survivor pool. Here is how the top of the market looks as of January 18, 2026:
- Seattle Seahawks: +155
- Los Angeles Rams: +310
- New England Patriots: +440
- Houston Texans: +750
- Denver Broncos: +1000
- Chicago Bears: +1400
Honestly, the Broncos being at +1000 feels like a trap. They were sitting pretty at +700 until about twelve hours ago. Then the news broke: Bo Nix is out for the postseason with a broken ankle. Watching those odds slide in real-time was brutal. Now, Denver has to rely on Jarrett Stidham to navigate the AFC gauntlet. It's a tall order. If you’re holding a Broncos ticket from a month ago, I’m sorry. That’s the "gambler's curse" right there.
The Sam Darnold Renaissance in Seattle
Let's talk about Seattle. Why is the market so high on them?
It isn't just the home-field advantage, though playing at Lumen Field in January is a nightmare for any opponent. It's the efficiency. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has turned into an absolute monster, leading the league in receiving yards. Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme is confusing even the veteran quarterbacks. They just dismantled San Francisco 41-6 in the Divisional Round.
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When a team wins a playoff game by 35 points, the oddsmakers don't just "adjust" the lines; they nuke them. Seattle went from a respectable contender to the "team to beat" overnight.
Why the Rams are the Most Dangerous Value Bet
If you want my honest opinion, the Los Angeles Rams at +310 are the most interesting play on the board.
Yes, they are a Wild Card team. Yes, they have to play on the road. But look at that roster. Matthew Stafford is playing like he's 25 again. They have Puka Nacua and Davante Adams—who they snagged mid-season—torching secondaries. Sean McVay is arguably the best tactical coach left in the bracket.
The Rams already beat Seattle once this year. They don't care about your home-field advantage. They have an offense that ranks #1 in success rate and EPA (Expected Points Added). If Stafford stays clean, that +310 price is going to look like a steal in two weeks.
The AFC’s "New Blood" Problem
The AFC is weird this year. No Kansas City. No Patrick Mahomes.
It feels wrong, doesn't it? Mahomes is recovering from that ACL/LCL surgery from December, and without him, the Chiefs' dynasty hit a brick wall. This has opened the door for the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans.
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The Patriots at +440 is a wild sentence to write in 2026. Mike Vrabel has done the impossible in his first year there. Drake Maye is playing like a seasoned vet, and their defense is top-five in almost every category. But can you really trust a rookie quarterback to win three straight playoff games against elite defenses? History says no. The odds say... maybe?
Then you have C.J. Stroud and the Texans at +750. They have a "scary" defense, according to most analysts, but Stroud has to be perfect. They’ve been inconsistent on the road. If you're looking for a "sleeper," Houston is the choice, but your heart rate is going to be 150 bpm the entire game.
What Most People Get Wrong About Super Bowl Odds
Most casual bettors look at the "Plus" number and think about the payout. They forget about implied probability.
When you see Seattle at +155, the math says they have about a 39% chance of winning the whole thing. The Rams at +310 are at roughly 24%. When you add up the percentages of every team on the board, it always exceeds 100%. That’s the "vig" or the "juice." The house always wins because they bake in a margin of error.
The Injury Factor
We already saw it with Bo Nix. Injuries move the NFL football odds to win the Super Bowl faster than actual wins or losses.
If you are betting today, you have to look at the Wednesday injury reports. Seattle is currently the healthiest team in the playoffs. The Rams are waiting on RG Kevin Dotson. San Francisco is already out of the running for most people because they lost George Kittle.
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Small details matter. A backup left tackle might not sound sexy, but if he’s facing a pass rusher like Seattle’s Boye Mafe, your QB is going to have a long day.
Actionable Insights for the Remainder of the Season
If you are looking to put money down now, don't just chase the favorites.
- Monitor the "Nix Effect": If Stidham looks even remotely competent in practice reports, Denver’s odds might bounce back to +800 or +900. There could be a value window there if you believe in their defense.
- The Rams/Bears Matchup: These two play today. The winner’s odds will likely slash in half. If the Rams win convincingly, they might jump Seattle as the favorite depending on the margin.
- Hedge your bets: If you have a long-shot ticket from the preseason (like a +12500 Patriots ticket), now is the time to start betting on their opponents. Guarantee yourself a profit.
The Super Bowl is at Levi’s Stadium on February 8. Between now and then, these numbers will move every single hour. Keep your eyes on the practice reports and don't get blinded by the big names. The "Legion of Bloom 2.0" in Seattle is the real deal, but McVay and the Rams are lurking in the shadows.
Check the updated lines at your preferred sportsbook before kickoff today, as the Sunday games always trigger a massive recalibration of the futures market.
Expert Tip: Pay attention to the "Exact Result" props. Right now, a "Chicago Bears to beat New England Patriots" Super Bowl result is sitting at +3000. If you think the "New Blood" trend continues in both conferences, that’s where the real money is hiding. Just remember that the playoffs are a different beast, and as we saw with Denver, one play can change the entire betting landscape.
Next Steps: Review the active rosters for the Conference Championship favorites to ensure no late-week "illness" or "tweak" reports have surfaced, as these often precede significant line movement. Check the weather forecasts for Seattle and Foxborough, as high-wind games historically favor teams with elite rushing EPAs like the Rams and Texans.