The divisional round is usually where the "pretenders" get exposed. But looking at the NFL football odds this week, something feels a little off. Usually, by mid-January, the home teams are locked in as massive favorites, and the public just blindly hammers the chalk. Not this time.
Honestly, the betting lines for this weekend’s slate—January 17 and 18, 2026—suggest we’re in for some absolute chaos. We’ve got a No. 2 seed that is a home underdog. We’ve got a No. 1 seed in the AFC that opened as a favorite, saw the line flip to a pick'em, and now sits as a tiny 1.5-point home favorite.
If you're looking for "safe" bets, you might want to look elsewhere. The Divisional Round is where the sharp money starts to clash with the casual fans, and the delta between the two is wider than usual right now.
The Denver-Buffalo Flip: When Home Field Doesn't Matter
The most fascinating line movement of the week belongs to the Saturday afternoon clash between the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos.
Denver secured the No. 1 seed with a 13-3 record. They’ve won 13 of their last 14 games at Empower Field at Mile High. On paper, they should be a 3-point favorite minimum. But the oddsmakers aren't buying it, and neither are the bettors.
The line opened with Buffalo as a 1.5-point road favorite. Think about that for a second. A No. 6 seed was favored on the road against the No. 1 seed.
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It eventually settled at Broncos -1.5, but the "why" is more important than the number. Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed, coming off a gritty 27-24 win over Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Broncos are on a miserable 3-9 ATS (Against the Spread) slide when they are the favorites.
- The Moneyline: Broncos -122 / Bills +104
- The Total: 45.5 points
- The Trend: Buffalo is 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games against elite defenses.
If you’re betting this, you’re basically betting on whether Josh Allen’s "superman" mode can overcome a Denver defense that ranks 3rd against the run.
Why the Chicago Bears are Home Underdogs as a 2-Seed
This is the weird one. The Chicago Bears (12-6) are hosting the Los Angeles Rams (13-5) at Soldier Field on Sunday night.
Despite being the higher seed and playing at home, the Bears are +3.5 underdogs. It’s the second week in a row that Chicago has been disrespected by the books. Last week, they were home dogs against the Packers and won outright.
The Rams are scary. Matthew Stafford is still slinging it, and they are 12-6 ATS this year. But there's a catch: the home team has won the last five matchups between these two franchises.
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You’ve basically got two conflicting narratives here. One says the Rams are the better team (which the -198 moneyline suggests). The other says that home underdogs in the playoffs are on a 13-3 ATS run since 2016. Chicago fans are loud, the weather is going to be "Chicago-ish," and the Rams' secondary has been known to leak yards like a rusty pipe.
The Heavyweight: Seahawks vs. 49ers
Saturday night is the big one. The Seattle Seahawks are the biggest favorites on the board this week, laying 7 points against the San Francisco 49ers.
Sam Darnold has somehow become the savior of Seattle. I know, it sounds weird to say it out loud in 2026, but the guy is playing efficient football. Combined with a defense that only allowed 13 points over the last two weeks, Seattle looks like the most complete team left.
But 7 points is a massive spread for a divisional rivalry. These teams split their regular-season series. Brock Purdy is back and healthy, and we know Kyle Shanahan usually has something cooked up for these high-stakes games.
The money is split here. 50% of the public likes the "12s" at Lumen Field to blow the doors off, while the "sharps" are looking at that +275 moneyline for the Niners and wondering if an upset is brewing.
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The Cold Clash in Foxboro
Sunday afternoon gives us the Houston Texans (+3) at the New England Patriots (-3).
The Patriots defense is the story here. They just dismantled the Chargers, sacking Justin Herbert six times. Now they get a Texans team coming off a short week after playing on Monday.
New England is 7-1 all-time at home against Houston. It’s a matchup nightmare for a young Texans squad. However, the line moved from -2.5 to -3.5 and then settled back at -3. That "buyback" on Houston suggests that professional bettors think the Patriots' offense, led by Drake Maye, might struggle to pull away.
The total is the lowest of the weekend at 40.5. If you like old-school, grind-it-out football where a single field goal decides the spread, this is your game.
Actionable Insights for Your Picks
If you are looking to narrow down your card for the weekend, keep these specific factors in mind:
- Monitor the Josh Allen Injury Report: He's been nursing some minor knocks. His rushing yards over/under is usually around 35.5; if he’s limited, the Bills' offense loses its most dangerous dimension.
- Watch the Weather in Chicago: If the wind kicks up at Soldier Field, that 48.5 Over becomes a very dangerous bet. Stafford and Caleb Williams both have big arms, but nobody beats the Lake Michigan wind.
- Trust the Rest Advantage: The Broncos and Seahawks are coming off byes. Historically, No. 1 seeds are 4-12-1 ATS recently when the spread is 7 or less, but they still win the games outright more often than not.
- Identify the "Hook": In the Rams-Bears game, the line is 3.5. That half-point (the hook) is vital. If you like the Bears, make sure you get the full 3.5. If you like the Rams, try to find a book where you can buy it down to 3.
The divisional round rarely goes exactly as planned. Usually, at least one "road warrior" pulls the upset. Based on the current NFL football odds this week, the market is screaming that Buffalo or Los Angeles is the most likely candidate to ruin some home-field parties.