You've seen the ticker. The Seattle Seahawks are sitting at +270, the Los Angeles Rams are breathing down their necks at +320, and the betting world is acting like the AFC doesn't exist. Honestly, it’s a weird time to be an NFL fan. We are heading into the divisional round of the playoffs for Super Bowl LX, and the hierarchy of nfl favorites for super bowl contention has flipped entirely on its head compared to what we expected back in August.
Remember when the Kansas City Chiefs were the "inevitable" dynasty? That feels like a decade ago. With Patrick Mahomes sidelined by a late-season ACL tear and the team finishing a shocking 6-11, the power vacuum in the AFC has been filled by a mix of hungry young guns and a certain "reigning MVP" in Buffalo who refuses to go away.
But if you’re looking at the board today, January 17, 2026, the real story isn't just who has the lowest number next to their name. It's about how the Seahawks became the most terrifying team in the league under Mike Macdonald and why Sam Darnold—yes, that Sam Darnold—is currently the betting favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at Levi's Stadium.
The NFC Power Struggle: Seattle vs. Everyone
Let’s be real: nobody saw the Seahawks being this dominant. They clinched the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, and their defense is playing like the 2013 Legion of Boom reborn. They’ve allowed a measly 13 points over their last two games. That’s not a typo.
DraftKings currently has them at +270 to win it all. Why? Because home-field advantage at Lumen Field is a nightmare for visiting teams, especially in January. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has basically become uncoverable, leading the league in receiving yards. If Sam Darnold continues to play like a composed veteran instead of the "ghost-seeing" kid from years ago, the path to Santa Clara looks very smooth for Seattle.
But there is a massive "but" here. The Los Angeles Rams (+320) are the only team that seems to have the Seahawks' number. They split the regular season series, and Matthew Stafford is still slinging it like he’s 25. Stafford led the league with 4,707 passing yards this season. With Davante Adams returning for the playoffs after a monster 14-touchdown regular season, the Rams have the offensive fire-power to ruin Seattle's party.
🔗 Read more: Liverpool FC Chelsea FC: Why This Grudge Match Still Hits Different
The oddsmakers know this. That’s why the gap between the Seahawks and Rams is so slim.
Josh Allen and the AFC's New Order
Over in the AFC, the landscape is even more chaotic. The Buffalo Bills (+650) just dismantled the Jaguars in the Wild Card round, and Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed. He’s the reigning MVP for a reason. He accounted for 14 rushing touchdowns and 25 passing scores this year.
Usually, the Bills' biggest hurdle is Patrick Mahomes. But with the Chiefs out of the picture, Allen’s postseason path is wide open. Or is it?
The Rising Threats in the AFC
- New England Patriots (+600): Drake Maye is the real deal. In just his second year, he led the league in Total EPA (169.96). The Pats finished 15-3 and have the most efficient offense in the league. They aren't just a "good for a young team" story anymore; they are a juggernaut.
- Denver Broncos (+700): If you like old-school, suffocating defense, this is your team. They rank top three in almost every defensive category. They are the No. 1 seed in the AFC for a reason, and playing in the thin air of Denver is a massive hurdle for Josh Allen this weekend.
- Houston Texans (+850): Talk about a heater. Houston is on a nine-game winning streak. They finished with the No. 1 total defense in the league. C.J. Stroud has settled into a rhythm where he simply doesn't make mistakes.
What Most People Get Wrong About the 49ers
You might see the San Francisco 49ers sitting down at +2000 and think they’re dead. Don’t fall for it.
They are the "dark horse" that isn't really a dark horse. They just beat the Eagles 23-19 in the Wild Card round, and Brock Purdy looks sharp since returning from his toe injury. Christian McCaffrey still put up over 2,100 yards from scrimmage this season.
💡 You might also like: NFL Football Teams in Order: Why Most Fans Get the Hierarchy Wrong
The problem? They have to play the Seahawks in Seattle today. If they survive that, their odds will probably jump from +2000 to +800 overnight. Bookmakers are pricing them low because the immediate hurdle—beating the No. 1 seed on the road—is statistically improbable. But this is the same team that has been to four of the last six NFC Championship games. Nuance matters here. If you're betting on nfl favorites for super bowl wins, the 49ers represent the highest "talent-to-odds" value on the board.
The "Da Bears" Factor
Chicago is the wild card of the century. They were down 21-3 against Green Bay in the Wild Card round, and their Super Bowl odds plummeted to +8000 mid-game. Then Caleb Williams went nuclear, scoring 25 points in the fourth quarter to win 31-27.
Now they’re at +1600. It’s a massive swing. Williams threw for nearly 4,000 yards as a sophomore. While they are still underdogs against the Rams tomorrow, the "momentum" bettors are flooding the window with Bears tickets. Is it smart? Probably not. Is it fun? Absolutely.
Realities of the 2026 Season
We have to acknowledge the elephant in the room: injuries. The reason the nfl favorites for super bowl list looks so different this year is because the old guard is hurt.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals didn't even make the playoffs. Burrow spent half the year dealing with turf toe and hinted in December that if the game "isn't fun anymore," he might have to rethink things. He's staying in Cincy, but the aura of invincibility around those elite QBs has cracked.
📖 Related: Why Your 1 Arm Pull Up Progression Isn't Working (And How to Fix It)
Even the Bills are limping into the divisional round. Josh Allen was a full participant in practice, but stars like Dalton Kincaid and Greg Rousseau are "questionable" for today’s game against Denver. In a league where the margins are this thin, one rolled ankle changes the favorites list in seconds.
Actionable Strategy for Following the Favorites
If you're tracking these teams for the final stretch, stop looking at the "Who has the best QB?" metric. It’s failing this year. Instead, focus on these three things:
- Pass-Rush Win Rate: The Rams and Broncos are the only two teams in the playoffs that rank top 10 in pass-block AND pass-rush win rate. Teams that win the trenches in January usually win the ring.
- EPA per Play: Keep an eye on the Patriots. Their offensive efficiency is historically high. Drake Maye is making throws that Mahomes used to make.
- The "Seahawk" Factor: Seattle's 14-3 record isn't a fluke, but they are Sam Darnold-dependent. If Sam reverts to his old self under the pressure of a divisional rivalry game, that +270 number is a trap.
The road to Super Bowl LX runs through Seattle and Denver. Whether you're a fan or looking for an edge, the next 48 hours will define if the "favorites" are actually as good as the numbers suggest.
Key Statistics for Divisional Weekend
| Team | SB Odds | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | +270 | Allowed 13 points in last 2 games |
| L.A. Rams | +320 | Matthew Stafford: 4,707 passing yards |
| N.E. Patriots | +600 | 0.13 Offensive EPA per play (1st) |
| Buffalo Bills | +650 | Josh Allen: 39 total TDs (Reg. Season) |
| Denver Broncos | +700 | No. 1 Net yards per pass allowed |
| Houston Texans | +850 | 9-game winning streak |
| Chicago Bears | +1600 | 25 points in 4th quarter last week |
| S.F. 49ers | +2000 | 4 NFC Championship trips in 6 years |
Watch the injury reports for the Bills today. If Kincaid is out, that Bills offense loses its safety valve against a Denver defense that specializes in taking away the deep ball. This weekend is where the pretenders finally get exposed.
Check the live line movements right before kickoff. With the Seahawks/49ers game starting shortly, any late scratches in the secondary for Seattle could see the Rams leapfrog them as the overall favorite before the sun sets.
Stay sharp on the defensive DVOA. Houston and Denver are the only teams left with a top-5 defensive DVOA, which often outweighs a flashy offense when the weather gets cold and the pressure rises. If you're looking for an upset, the Texans over the Patriots is the "expert" play that the public is currently ignoring.